June 2011: another month of exceptional extremes for the U.S.
June 2011 was another month of remarkable extremes over the U.S. Overall, it was the 26th warmest and 19th driest June for the lower 48 states, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Extreme heat gripped much of the South, with Texas experiencing its hottest June on record, and 13 other states recording top-ten hottest Junes. Accompanying the heat was intense drought--New Mexico had its driest June on record, and four other states had top-ten driest Junes. While the southern Plains' 1950s drought of record is unsurpassed in terms of duration, the current drought in parts of Texas is more intense than the 1950s drought when measured by the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. The heat and drought contributed to the worst fire year in U.S. history, with 4.8 million acres burned by the end of the month, more than double the average from the previous ten years.
While the South baked and burned, California experienced its wettest June on record, and heavier than normal precipitation and prolonged snowmelt during the spring caused June flooding in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, and Washington. For the 3-month period April-May-June, the NOAA Climate Extremes Index indicated that it was the most extreme such period on record in the U.S. for precipitation, as measured by the percent area of the U.S. experiencing top 10% wettest or driest conditions. Heavy 1-day precipitation events were also at an all-time high during April-May-June 2011. Data for the Climate Extremes Index goes back to 1910.
Figure 1. Exceptional heat gripped most of the South during June 2011, with Texas experiencing its hottest June in 117 years of record keeping, and 13 other states recording a top-ten hottest June. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. Exceptionally dry conditions accompanied the intense heat in the South during June 2011, with New Mexico experiencing its driest June in 117 years of record keeping, and four other states recording a top-ten driest June. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Tornado activity died down in June
According to data from the Storm Prediction Center, there were 177 preliminary tornado reports during June, which is below the national average for the month. On June 1st, a strong tornado tracked 39 miles across Massachusetts, marking the second longest tornado track on record for the state.
The Atlantic is quiet
A tropical wave near 10°N, 55°W, about 500 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west at 15 - 20 mph, and will bring heavy rain to the southern Lesser Antilles and the northeast coast of South America on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind shear over the wave is low, 5 - 10 knots, but the wave is too close to the Equator to leverage Earth's spin in time for development. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.
The NOGAPS models is predicting that a strong tropical disturbance could develop in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Sunday, similar to how Tropical Storm Arlene developed at the end of June. The latest runs of the other reliable models do not predict any tropical cyclone development of note over the next seven days, though the GFS model was showing development of a system off the coast of Africa this week, in its run from Sunday night.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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...ah...we have a pre- pre- pre- invest right here off the "Carolina coast"
remains to be seen ;-)
I sent a note to some folks I work with in Tokyo. Have no idea how well people over there pay attention to cyclones.
there's a 12 step program for that
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
or just think of baseball stats
There's a well-defined wave over western Africa that should be entering the Eastern Atlantic within the next 24-36 hours.
Portal:Tropical cyclones
Thanks, new page link, new toy...
OK, maybe its convection-less, but it still has a well defined wave signature, one of the best so far this season.
We will see what happens after that.
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.0N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
What about the large storm over east africa. wonder if it will make it to the ATL
If you zoom this global view of Africa, there is a little storm over land in the Nigeria area...
Move the global photo to a new tab and zoom...
haha, thats cool.
Depending on how it interacts with land...
Not a bad idea, still a long ways out though. Something to certainly keep an eye on with the Euro GFS and CMC really intensifying the storm as it moves into the general area.
Bertha making landfall.
Other cool images and info on Bertha, awesome site.
Link
Too bad I wasn't around yet to experience it...not that I would remember it in the first place.
Correction: It made landfall here in NC, not SC.
PO6L 120 hours
the NAM may be correct
hey nrtiwlnvragn can you post the link to that site I was tring to look for it but could not find it
No respectable scientist has ever claimed, nor will ever claim, that models are 100% accurate. Every scientific model from aerodynamics to nuclear reactions contain error bars.
Now to clarify some things:
1) Initialization. We have an imperfect description of what the atmosphere is doing right now, due to lack of data (particularly over the oceans). When the model starts, is has an incorrect picture of the initial state of the atmosphere, so will always generate a forecast that is imperfect.
Incorrect is a misleading term. Our data is only as accurate as our technology and is correct to the bounds of that technology. Imperfect? Yes. Incorrect? No.
2) Resolution. Models are run on 3-D grids that cover the entire globe. Each grid point represents of piece of atmosphere perhaps 40 km on a side. Thus, processes smaller than that (such as thunderstorms) are not handled well, and must be "parameterized". This means we make up parameters (fudge factors) that do a good job giving the right forecast most of the time. Obviously, the fudge factors aren't going to work for all situations.
No, different models are used on different domains. HWRF, for example uses a localized domain around a hurricane and can have resolutions as high as 4km. GFS can be used locally and globally, with varying resolutions. Mesoscale models in general can be run at high res (sub 20km).
Parameterizations are not "fudge factors". They are scientifically validated formulas or constants used to accurately characterize a phenomena. No, they are not perfect, but attributing them as "fudge factors" is somewhat denigrating.
3) Basic understanding. Our basic understanding of the physics governing the atmosphere is imperfect, so the equations we're using aren't quite right.
Incorrect. Our basic understanding is correct. In a controlled environment, the basic physics are known to a high degree of accuracy.
However, the atmosphere is not a basic system. We do not have a perfect lock on the initial conditions. Without that, even the most accurate equations are going to end up being off. For example, you can drop a ball in a vacuum inside a lab and predict how long it will take and where it will hit the floor to a very high degree of accuracy. The basic physics of gravitation is well understood. Now take the ball and drop it from 10,000 feet in the atmosphere. You have the "basic understanding", but without the knowledge of the intervening atmosphere you're predictions of how long and where the ball will fall could be off by a significant margin.
Lack of information should not be confused with a lack of understanding.
Thanks, Levi! If that storm of the east coast develops far enough south perhaps it will cross Florida and go into the GOM.
Seems the low level ridge will build back in to the north of any disturbance and force it back to the coast almost as soon as it gets over water.
Link
HPC Extended Discussion
OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS A
SMALL BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH THE
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK
MSLP VALUES...ITS SLOW MOVEMENT WITHIN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY...
ALBEIT WITH LIMITED PREDICTABILITY...OF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PERIOD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER MODEL CONTINUITY
AND/OR POTENTIALLY STRONGER SCENARIOS FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE.
You took Dr. Masters characterization of global models from a broad overview into a detailed analysis that most users would not understand, nor need to.
Come on Neo I can't believe you didn't get called out for this. San Antonio had 59 days over 100 degrees in 2009. I haven't even looked at the average but I know it has to be more than 6.
While improving initial condition data helps, no matter how perfect, it will not yield a perfect model result. Period.
200mb GFS valid 12Z Sunday
click to open in new window
Pity it wasn't a little farther north and east, the snowmelt would be welcome in the Amazon Basin this year.
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