Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Invest now to improve tornado warnings; an early start to hurricane season?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT op 27 mei 2011

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begin on Wednesday, June 1, and recent computer model runs predict that we may have some early-season action in the Central Caribbean Sea to coincide with the start of this year's season. The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models have all indicated in some of their recent runs that a tropical disturbance may form between Jamaica and Central America sometime in the May 31 - June 2 time frame, as a lobe of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) pushes across Central America into the Caribbean. Up until now, wind shear has been too high to allow tropical storm formation in the Caribbean, due to the presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream. However, this jet is expected to push northwards over Cuba over the coming week, allowing a region of low wind shear to develop over most of the Caribbean. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. The main impediment to development will probably be lack of spin, as we don't have any African tropical waves that are expected to enter the Caribbean Sea next week, to help get things spinning. Stay tuned.

Figure 1. Satellite image of Typhoon Songda.

Typhoon Songda heads for Okinawa and Japan
Typhoon Songda brushed the Philippines yesterday, bringing heavy rains that killed at least two people. Fortunately, the brunt of this year's first Category 5 storm missed the islands, and Songda has weakened slightly to a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Songda is turning northwards and will threaten the island of Okinawa on Saturday. Sea surface temperatures decline rapidly north of the Philippines, and Songda is expected to weaken significantly before reaching Okinawa, where sea surface temperatures are approximately 26°C. Wind shear will also increase to high levels by Saturday, and Songda should be at most a Category 2 typhoon by the time it reaches Okinawa. On Sunday,

Invest now for better tornado warnings
National Weather Service forecasters issued a tornado warning 24 minutes in advance of the Joplin, Missouri tornado this.week, which is now being blamed for at least 132 deaths--the deadliest U.S. tornado since at least 1947. However, we can do better, and the National Weather Service Employees Organization (NWSEO) put out a press release on May 23, arguing that investments in weather service forecasting technology are needed to reduce loss of life in future violent tornadoes:

"The 24-minute lead time is a great improvement over the average lead time of 13 minutes for tornado warnings. The meteorologists in the Springfield Weather Forecast Office are commended for their lifesaving work," said Dan Sobien, NWSEO President. "But in our age of advanced technology and communication, when new radars and modeling opportunities exist that can provide more lead time to get people out of the path of a storm, hundreds of people do not have to die because of a tornado event."

Sobien says the Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes are examples of how the government's neglect to invest in NWS related infrastructure over the last 10 to 15 years has failed to provide the tools necessary to protect lives and property. He says that the tools forecasters use to issue tornado warnings are woefully inadequate and that the technology exists to provide lead times so far in advance of the storm that it would make the need for tornado warnings as we know them obsolete. "The much touted Doppler Weather Radar, also known as the Weather Service Radar or WSR-88D, was developed in 1988. Since that time, technological advances, including phased array radars developed by the Department of Defense, have been shown to increase the current lead time on tornado warnings by almost 50 percent."

"The much touted Warn on Forecast process utilizes Meso-scale modeling and has the potential to let forecasters know hours in advance where a thunderstorm would form and if it is likely to contain strong winds, hail, or even a tornado. With adequate staffing, local National Weather Service forecasters who understand local terrain and the model output, could be embedded with emergency managers and decision makers. In the event of a storm, the forecaster could provide emergency managers with the tornado track with some margin of error and people in the way of the storm could be evacuated hours before the tornado hits. This technology is being developed and tested right now, however without funding it will never be available."

"The art and science of severe weather warnings made considerable progress during the 1980s and 90s, going from almost zero lead time to average of about 13 minutes for tornado warnings. However, in recent years, that progress has stalled, even while the technological advancements have accelerated. If the country made the type of investment in the National Weather Service that it did in the 1980s, scenes like the ones in Missouri this week and in Alabama and Mississippi last month could be a thing of the past."

"I am very proud of my co-workers at the National Weather Service this tornado season. They saved many lives and having been there myself, I can assure you, they feel personally about every lost life," said Sobien. "I know that budgets are tight and there are many priorities, but if you put investing in the National Weather Service up to a vote today in tornado alley, I think the approval would be a landslide."

I wholeheartedly agree with this view--investments in better tornado forecasts and tornado observing technology will potentially give us a huge return in lives saved. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday or Tuesday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Tornado Power (Betty2)

Sunday, LaCrosse, WI a tornado hit. This is a photo of a 2x4 board that slammed through a tire.. and, freaky, but it left the air in the tire! Photo was taken by my neighbor, Lori Hines, Gays Mills WI.

25 May, (rdjgonzo)

May 25, 2011 at 7:10pm. Picture taken from Bartlett (Shelby County) TN.

What A Storm (llpj04)

Categories: Tornado

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1601. beell 2:09 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting sunlinepr: Thanks for link... Sure. I think you're in Puerto Rico. Maybe not alot of "coverage" there. Here either for that matter! Member Since: 11 september 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12881

1602. Ossqss 2:10 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Some space weather going on also :) Keep an eye on these guys. 1226 in particular. Its been quite busy across many spectrum's. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline .html http://spaceweather.com/ http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Additional, please jump in the Atlantic Season Prognostication contest if ya like. The last 2 years you all did quite well when graphically compared with the pro's! L8R ~ Member Since: 12 juni 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

1603. HurricaneDean07 2:10 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
emcf30, the ITCZ has rised a lot in the last 2 weeks, was very low when our first tropical wave came off on May 12, no wonder were seeing more tropical wave now... been wondering why there has been more frequent waves... Member Since: 3 oktober 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4046

1604. kmanislander 2:11 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting Bitmap7: Blog died That's what happens when we get these systems that are oh so slow to develop. No low level convergence, not much in the way of 850 mb vorticity, one small blob of convection all equals blog despair. But, tomorrow offers new hope for excitement. Tonight not so. Member Since: 19 augustus 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1605. kmanislander 2:15 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Good night. Back tomorrow Member Since: 19 augustus 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1606. hurricaneben 2:15 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Poll on the NHC odds of the EPAC Low by next TWO... a)0% b)10% c)20% d)30% e)40+% Member Since: 15 mei 2009 Posts: 330 Comments: 597

1607. emcf30 2:18 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting HurricaneDean07: emcf30, the ITCZ has rised a lot in the last 2 weeks, was very low when our first tropical wave came off on May 12, no wonder were seeing more tropical wave now... been wondering why there has been more frequent waves... From May 11-20, 2011, the western segment of the ITF continued its northward advancement and now coincides with the climatology mean position, while its eastern segment remained relatively stationary relative to its position during the previous dekad. The mean western portion of the ITF was approximated at 14.0 degrees North, while the mean eastern portion was located approximately at 10.9 degrees North. The mean eastern portion of the ITF lagged behind the climatology mean position due to strong northerlies from the Sahara and Arabia regions. Figure 1 shows the current ITF position relative to the climatology position for the second dekad of May and its previous position during the first dekad of May Most likely. the Eastern portion has continued to advance Northward since this graph was put out. Member Since: 7 augustus 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

1608. CyclonicVoyage 2:18 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting kmanislander: That's what happens when we get these systems that are oh so slow to develop. No low level convergence, not much in the way of 850 mb vorticity, one small blob of convection all equals blog despair. But, tomorrow offers new hope for excitement. Tonight not so. Don't even bring up the multiple low centers typically associated with monsoonal lows, lol. One step at a time, we have to have a duck in the pond first. Member Since: 30 januari 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

1609. Tazmanian 2:19 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting hurricaneben: Poll on the NHC odds of the EPAC Low by next TWO... a)0% b)10% c)20% d)30% e)40+% E Member Since: 21 mei 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354

1610. sunlinepr 2:19 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Mapping Ocean Surface Currents: West Coast Radar Network Is World's Largest This map shows the coverage area of the West Coast high-frequency radar network. (Credit: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego) ScienceDaily -May 29, 2011 - A network of high-frequency radar systems designed for mapping ocean surface currents now provides detail of coastal ocean dynamics along the U.S. West Coast never before available. The network has grown over the last decade from a few radars to what is now considered the largest network of its kind in the world consisting of 78 sites in operation as of May 1. In a recent paper in the American Geophysical Union publication Journal of Geophysical Research -- Oceans highlighted in the AGU publication Eos, an integrated analysis led by Sung Yong Kim, a postdoctoral researcher at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, reports several scientific aspects of coastal surface circulation derived from the West Coast high-frequency radar network, operated by a team of oceanographers. More.... Link Also Scientists Argue Against Conclusion That Bacteria Consumed Deepwater Horizon Methane ScienceDaily (May 29, 2011) - A technical comment published in the May 27 edition of the journal Science casts doubt on a widely publicized study that concluded that a bacterial bloom in the Gulf of Mexico consumed the methane discharged from the Deepwater Horizon well.... Link Member Since: 2 augustus 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

1611. CyclonicVoyage 2:21 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Upper level winds are going to be mighty hostile thru day 5. Key to this is that you have to go into it with low expectations. Member Since: 30 januari 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

1612. HurricaneDean07 2:22 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Poll Time #1 Of 2011 Hurricane Season: Question 1~ Do you think the SW Caribbean Monsoon Trough(pre93L)will form? (A) Yes (B) No (C) I Don't Know Question 2~ If yes to question one, how strong do you think it will be? (A) A Tropical Depression (B) A Weak Tropical Storm(40 to 45 MPH) (C) A Moderate Tropical Storm(50 to 60 MPH) (D) A Strong Tropical Storm(65 to 70 MPH) (E) A Hurricane (F) A Major Hurricane (G) It Will Not Form Question 3~ How Many storms do you think we will have in June and July? (A) O Storms (B) 1 Storm (C) 2 Storms (D) 3 Storms (E) 4 or More Storms Question 4~ How Many Storms Do You Think Will Hit The United States? (A) No Storms (B) 1 to 2 Storms (C) 3 to 5 Storms (D) 6 to 8 Storms (E) More Than 8 Storms I Say, A, C, C or D,C or D... Member Since: 3 oktober 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4046

1613. emcf30 2:23 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Member Since: 7 augustus 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

1614. beell 2:24 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011 ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 06N TO 13N ALONG 62W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING UNDERNEATH STRONG WESTERLY SHEARING FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS. WHILE A CLASSIC SIGNATURE IS HARD TO DETECT USING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO 14N IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS WHICH TAKES ON A MORE CLASSIC INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 60W-63W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 08N TO 13N ALONG 72W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WHILE MOST OF THE WAVE AXIS REMAINS OVER NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA...THE WAVE AND ITS ENERGY ARE QUICKLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TYPICALLY EVIDENT ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE IS ACTING TO SHEAR ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION N OF 11N...HOWEVER BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IS AIDING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 70W-75W... click to open in new window Member Since: 11 september 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12881

1615. emcf30 2:31 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Member Since: 7 augustus 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

1616. HurricaneDean07 2:32 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
pre93L looks to be keeping it's convection today even after dmin... well for now at least Member Since: 3 oktober 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4046

1617. wunderkidcayman 2:35 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting HurricaneDean07: pre93L looks to be keeping it's convection today even after dmin... well for now at least and because of this it is doing better than yesterday Member Since: 13 juni 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5444

1618. Bitmap7 2:37 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
She might fizzle out soon imo. Member Since: 4 mei 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

1619. aquak9 2:43 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting CyclonicVoyage: Don't even bring up the multiple low centers typically associated with monsoonal lows, lol. One step at a time, we have to have a duck in the pond first. there is no pond! there is no duck! there is no rain, no swirly clouds, no "pre93L" no NOTHING!!! I can't believe everyone who has sat on this blog all day long staring at, dissecting and discussing NOTHING!!! it's NOT GONNA HAPPEN, PEOPLE!!! AAAAUUURRGGHHH!!!! Member Since: 13 augustus 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

1620. Tazmanian 2:45 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
(A) Yes (F) A Major Hurricane (E) 4 or More Storms (E) More Than 8 Storms Member Since: 21 mei 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354

1621. Bitmap7 2:46 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting aquak9: there is no pond! there is no duck! there is no rain, no swirly clouds, no "pre93L" no NOTHING!!! I can't believe everyone who has sat on this blog all day long staring at, dissecting and discussing NOTHING!!! it's NOT GONNA HAPPEN, PEOPLE!!! AAAAUUURRGGHHH!!!! Relax patience it takes time. The models don't show any real action till about 70hrs. See that wave coming off south america, thats our ticket. Shear tendency shows the overall shear has been falling by five knots. by tuesday/wednessday conditions should be ideal. Member Since: 4 mei 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

1622. hurricaneben 2:46 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting HurricaneDean07: Poll Time #1 Of 2011 Hurricane Season: Question 1~ Do you think the SW Caribbean Monsoon Trough(pre93L)will form? (A) Yes (B) No (C) I Don't Know Question 2~ If yes to question one, how strong do you think it will be? (A) A Tropical Depression (B) A Weak Tropical Storm(40 to 45 MPH) (C) A Moderate Tropical Storm(50 to 60 MPH) (D) A Strong Tropical Storm(65 to 70 MPH) (E) A Hurricane (F) A Major Hurricane (G) It Will Not Form Question 3~ How Many storms do you think we will have in June and July? (A) O Storms (B) 1 Storm (C) 2 Storms (D) 3 Storms (E) 4 or More Storms Question 4~ How Many Storms Do You Think Will Hit The United States? (A) No Storms (B) 1 to 2 Storms (C) 3 to 5 Storms (D) 6 to 8 Storms (E) More Than 8 Storms I Say, A, C, C or D,C or D... A, C/D, D/E, D. Member Since: 15 mei 2009 Posts: 330 Comments: 597

1623. hurricaneben 2:48 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
If this develops into TS Arlene (which I think it will) and enter the GOM, is there a chance Florida will feel any wind impact? Member Since: 15 mei 2009 Posts: 330 Comments: 597

1624. wunderkidcayman 2:50 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting hurricaneben: If this develops into TS Arlene (which I think it will) and enter the GOM, is there a chance Florida will feel any wind impact? very much so Member Since: 13 juni 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5444

1625. wunderkidcayman 2:57 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
00Z no low yet maybe it will be there at 06Z or 12Z Member Since: 13 juni 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5444

1626. hurricaneben 2:58 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting wunderkidcayman: very much so Like TS-force winds? Member Since: 15 mei 2009 Posts: 330 Comments: 597

1627. wunderkidcayman 3:01 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
not sure about the winds yet but I do know at any strength it will be a big rainmaker Member Since: 13 juni 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5444

1628. CybrTeddy 3:03 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
No more than 50 mph winds, sheared mostly with the convection off to the NE of the circulation. Defiantly a rain bringer. Member Since: 8 juli 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

1629. weathergeek5 3:06 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting aquak9: there is no pond! there is no duck! there is no rain, no swirly clouds, no "pre93L" no NOTHING!!! I can't believe everyone who has sat on this blog all day long staring at, dissecting and discussing NOTHING!!! it's NOT GONNA HAPPEN, PEOPLE!!! AAAAUUURRGGHHH!!!! Yeah I asked for one minute moment of silence for the people of Joplin. Nothing just posted about tropical activity. Whats more important respecting tornado victims or talking about the tropics that are not active? People were not respectful. Member Since: 25 december 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1721

1630. clwstmchasr 3:08 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting hurricaneben: If this develops into TS Arlene (which I think it will) and enter the GOM, is there a chance Florida will feel any wind impact? If it enters the GOM any state that surround the GOM would have a chance of feeling a wind impact. Member Since: 29 juli 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2755

1631. SouthDadeFish 3:11 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
I thought this was a weather blog. People can post freely about whatever weather event they please. Are you surprised people are so excited about the possibility of the first named system of the year with such great model consensus? Member Since: 12 augustus 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2418

1632. weathergeek5 3:12 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting SouthDadeFish: I thought this was a weather blog. People can post freely about whatever weather event they please. Are you surprised people are so excited about the possibility of the first named system of the year with such great model consensus? Usually a great percentage of these people want cat 5's to terrorize land areas. Member Since: 25 december 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1721

1633. Patrap 3:14 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Endeavour to un-dock from the ISS @ :55 past this hour for the final time Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

1634. hurricaneben 3:15 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting clwstmchasr: If it enters the GOM any state that surround the GOM would have a chance of feeling a wind impact. Oh yeah, many of the hurricanes that passed to our West in the Gulf Of Mexico somehow affected us with the outer rain bands/gusty winds such as Arlene, Dennis and Ike. Member Since: 15 mei 2009 Posts: 330 Comments: 597

1635. wunderkidcayman 3:17 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
How many more hours before D-Max Member Since: 13 juni 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5444

1637. wxgeek723 3:17 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
I think aquak is trying to explain that you guys may be overdoing this a bit. I know everyone is enthused with the start of hurricane season but you're all just getting a little bent up over one possible system that the NHC hasn't even formally recognized yet. Just be patient and try not to have such an "I want this to form!" bias. Member Since: 28 augustus 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 2350

1638. MiamiHurricanes09 3:19 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting aquak9: there is no pond! there is no duck! there is no rain, no swirly clouds, no "pre93L" no NOTHING!!! I can't believe everyone who has sat on this blog all day long staring at, dissecting and discussing NOTHING!!! it's NOT GONNA HAPPEN, PEOPLE!!! AAAAUUURRGGHHH!!!! Let's take a few deep breaths now. LOL. Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1639. SouthDadeFish 3:22 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting wxgeek723: I think aquak is trying to explain that you guys may be overdoing this a bit. I know everyone is enthused with the start of hurricane season but you're all just getting a little bent up over one possible system that the NHC hasn't even formally recognized yet. Just be patient and try not to have such an "I want this to form!" bias. To be honest the NHC definitely has recognized it. It's in their 72 hour surface forecasts and their discussions. Even NWS offices have recognized it. It's not on the TWO yet because it won't develop in the next 48 hours. Once it establishes a surface low, expect to see it there. Usually when you have model consensus like this, you see cyclogenesis. Although this most likely will be a very weak, sheared system, isn't that how most early season storms are? I get what you're saying though. I think we are seeing a little of both extremes lol. Member Since: 12 augustus 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2418

1640. Levi32 3:22 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting weathergeek5: Yeah I asked for one minute moment of silence for the people of Joplin. Nothing just posted about tropical activity. Whats more important respecting tornado victims or talking about the tropics that are not active? People were not respectful. It's an internet forum. Enough said. Stop expecting so darn much. Member Since: 24 november 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

1641. Bitmap7 3:23 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Guys I am out, don't expect anything spectacular tonight. Things should die down and start firing up again by tomorrow night if the models are right. Member Since: 4 mei 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

1642. weathergeek5 3:24 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting Levi32: It's an internet forum. Enough said. Stop expecting so darn much. I don't want to argue with a kid but how is that expecting so much? Member Since: 25 december 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1721

1643. wunderkidcayman 3:27 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
How many hours till D-Max starts Member Since: 13 juni 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5444

1644. aspectre 3:28 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
1619 aquak9 "there is no pond! there is no duck! there is no rain, no swirly clouds, no "pre93L" no NOTHING!!! I can't believe everyone who has sat on this blog all day long staring at, dissecting and discussing NOTHING!!! " Kinda like driving down a lonely road through a snow-covered landscape with just enough snowfall coming down to dust over the tracks of previous traffic. Sensory deprivation causes hallucinations. Member Since: 21 augustus 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

1645. Levi32 3:29 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting wunderkidcayman: How many hours till D-Max starts There is no start or end. It's a maximum; one point. It occurs just after sunrise local time, which will be in about 7 hours. Member Since: 24 november 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

1646. CyclonicVoyage 3:31 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting aquak9: there is no pond! there is no duck! there is no rain, no swirly clouds, no "pre93L" no NOTHING!!! I can't believe everyone who has sat on this blog all day long staring at, dissecting and discussing NOTHING!!! it's NOT GONNA HAPPEN, PEOPLE!!! AAAAUUURRGGHHH!!!! Surely premature, I'll give ya that. Truth in the matter is that surface high pressures are progressing as modeled and pressures will lower in the Caribbean as a result. A low pressure center is highly likely. There is a Twave about 24 hrs out that will interact and get the ball rolling. SO, to sum it up, in 24 to 36hrs you'll have a broad area of low pressure interacting with a Twave. That's as far as I'll go with it at this point. Head Strong My Dear, It will be a long season otherwise. Member Since: 30 januari 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

1647. Tazbeat 3:31 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
And the wishcasting begins. Member Since: 13 juni 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8

1648. TampaSpin 3:32 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Looks like a lot of WC going on....Shear might relax but, currently nothing will develop in these winds... Yes i have looked at the models. More likely the stuff will turn out in the Pacific in my opinion anyways. Member Since: 2 september 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1649. wunderkidcayman 3:33 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting Levi32: There is no start or end. It's a maximum; one point. It occurs just after sunrise local time, which will be in about 7 hours. yes I know, oh you know what I mean. thanks anyway hopefully by that time Pre-93L will look alot better and aquak9 will stop saying "there is no pond! there is no duck! there is no rain, no swirly clouds, no "pre93L" no NOTHING!!! I can't believe everyone who has sat on this blog all day long staring at, dissecting and discussing NOTHING!!! it's NOT GONNA HAPPEN, PEOPLE!!! AAAAUUURRGGHHH!!!!' Member Since: 13 juni 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5444

1650. Hurricanes101 3:34 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Guess we cant discuss the possibility of development anymore who cares if this is going to be slow to develop? This is what some of us love to do. We love to dissect these developing systems and looking at the models No one is forcing anyone else here to be on this blog or read our posts. Yet you are trying to tell us what we can and cant talk about? Unreal, the people who scream wishcasters are worse than many of the damn wishcasters. No one said this would be a CAT 5 or anything like that. What has been going on is just analysis of what could happen and commenting about tropical weather. GASP on a tropical weather blog? BLASPHEMY!! Member Since: 10 maart 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1651. TomTaylor 3:35 AM GMT op 30 mei 2011
Quoting alfabob: I think if the Caribbean absorbs the EPAC monsoon feature, then manages to survive for about two weeks; then it may have a chance at getting near the Gulf as a hurricane. Other than that, I think it is a 50/50 on what happens; but in terms of named systems (at least TS) I would give both a moderate chance of developing over the next week or so. I would think wind sheer created by the outflow of the epac system's convection would be a bigger issue than stealing moisture. Member Since: 24 augustus 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 3899

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