Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Invest now to improve tornado warnings; an early start to hurricane season?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT op 27 mei 2011

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begin on Wednesday, June 1, and recent computer model runs predict that we may have some early-season action in the Central Caribbean Sea to coincide with the start of this year's season. The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models have all indicated in some of their recent runs that a tropical disturbance may form between Jamaica and Central America sometime in the May 31 - June 2 time frame, as a lobe of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) pushes across Central America into the Caribbean. Up until now, wind shear has been too high to allow tropical storm formation in the Caribbean, due to the presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream. However, this jet is expected to push northwards over Cuba over the coming week, allowing a region of low wind shear to develop over most of the Caribbean. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. The main impediment to development will probably be lack of spin, as we don't have any African tropical waves that are expected to enter the Caribbean Sea next week, to help get things spinning. Stay tuned.

Figure 1. Satellite image of Typhoon Songda.

Typhoon Songda heads for Okinawa and Japan
Typhoon Songda brushed the Philippines yesterday, bringing heavy rains that killed at least two people. Fortunately, the brunt of this year's first Category 5 storm missed the islands, and Songda has weakened slightly to a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Songda is turning northwards and will threaten the island of Okinawa on Saturday. Sea surface temperatures decline rapidly north of the Philippines, and Songda is expected to weaken significantly before reaching Okinawa, where sea surface temperatures are approximately 26°C. Wind shear will also increase to high levels by Saturday, and Songda should be at most a Category 2 typhoon by the time it reaches Okinawa. On Sunday,

Invest now for better tornado warnings
National Weather Service forecasters issued a tornado warning 24 minutes in advance of the Joplin, Missouri tornado this.week, which is now being blamed for at least 132 deaths--the deadliest U.S. tornado since at least 1947. However, we can do better, and the National Weather Service Employees Organization (NWSEO) put out a press release on May 23, arguing that investments in weather service forecasting technology are needed to reduce loss of life in future violent tornadoes:

"The 24-minute lead time is a great improvement over the average lead time of 13 minutes for tornado warnings. The meteorologists in the Springfield Weather Forecast Office are commended for their lifesaving work," said Dan Sobien, NWSEO President. "But in our age of advanced technology and communication, when new radars and modeling opportunities exist that can provide more lead time to get people out of the path of a storm, hundreds of people do not have to die because of a tornado event."

Sobien says the Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes are examples of how the government's neglect to invest in NWS related infrastructure over the last 10 to 15 years has failed to provide the tools necessary to protect lives and property. He says that the tools forecasters use to issue tornado warnings are woefully inadequate and that the technology exists to provide lead times so far in advance of the storm that it would make the need for tornado warnings as we know them obsolete. "The much touted Doppler Weather Radar, also known as the Weather Service Radar or WSR-88D, was developed in 1988. Since that time, technological advances, including phased array radars developed by the Department of Defense, have been shown to increase the current lead time on tornado warnings by almost 50 percent."

"The much touted Warn on Forecast process utilizes Meso-scale modeling and has the potential to let forecasters know hours in advance where a thunderstorm would form and if it is likely to contain strong winds, hail, or even a tornado. With adequate staffing, local National Weather Service forecasters who understand local terrain and the model output, could be embedded with emergency managers and decision makers. In the event of a storm, the forecaster could provide emergency managers with the tornado track with some margin of error and people in the way of the storm could be evacuated hours before the tornado hits. This technology is being developed and tested right now, however without funding it will never be available."

"The art and science of severe weather warnings made considerable progress during the 1980s and 90s, going from almost zero lead time to average of about 13 minutes for tornado warnings. However, in recent years, that progress has stalled, even while the technological advancements have accelerated. If the country made the type of investment in the National Weather Service that it did in the 1980s, scenes like the ones in Missouri this week and in Alabama and Mississippi last month could be a thing of the past."

"I am very proud of my co-workers at the National Weather Service this tornado season. They saved many lives and having been there myself, I can assure you, they feel personally about every lost life," said Sobien. "I know that budgets are tight and there are many priorities, but if you put investing in the National Weather Service up to a vote today in tornado alley, I think the approval would be a landslide."

I wholeheartedly agree with this view--investments in better tornado forecasts and tornado observing technology will potentially give us a huge return in lives saved. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday or Tuesday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Tornado Power (Betty2)

Sunday, LaCrosse, WI a tornado hit. This is a photo of a 2x4 board that slammed through a tire.. and, freaky, but it left the air in the tire! Photo was taken by my neighbor, Lori Hines, Gays Mills WI.

25 May, (rdjgonzo)

May 25, 2011 at 7:10pm. Picture taken from Bartlett (Shelby County) TN.

What A Storm (llpj04)

Categories: Tornado

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1151. Bitmap7 4:59 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Member Since: 4 mei 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

1152. MrstormX 5:06 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394... VALID 291659Z - 291800Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394 CONTINUES. BOWING QLCS OVER N-CNTRL IL WILL LIKELY TRACK EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. A DOWNSTREAM WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 18Z. RECENT FORWARD PROPAGATION SPEED OF 45-50 KT WITH THE BOWING SEGMENT MOVING ACROSS N-CNTRL IL WOULD EXTRAPOLATE TO THE ERN EDGE OF WW 394 AROUND 19Z. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE WITH WARM FRONT /ROUGHLY FROM 20 S VPZ TO DTW/ GRADUALLY SHIFTING NWD . MODIFIED 12Z ILX RAOB SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE RISING AOA 2000 J/KG/ ALONG WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODEST...THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING STRUCTURE ALONG WITH THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD FAVOR BRIEF TORNADOES AS WELL. ..GRAMS.. 05/29/2011 ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...I LX...DVN... LAT...LON 40488984 41258910 41858901 42498621 42698370 42508312 41828283 41418308 40998375 40658538 40528689 40488984 Member Since: 27 mei 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4221

1153. Levi32 5:08 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
12z NOGAPS is back to what the 0z run showed, developing the storm off the coast of Nicaragua moving slowly northwest, which I could see making good sense if the trough over the western Atlantic isn't strong enough to pull it northeast. Our system would be in a close relationship with the cut-off upper low over the Gulf of Mexico at that point. Member Since: 24 november 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

1154. islander101010 5:10 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
rain moving in? close call for the indy 500? Member Since: 11 september 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2963

1155. MiamiHurricanes09 5:11 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
12z CMC has gone very aggressive in this run. Strong tropical cyclone over the Cayman islands in 144 hours: Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1156. Bitmap7 5:12 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting Levi32: 12z NOGAPS is back to what the 0z run showed, developing the storm off the coast of Nicaragua moving slowly northwest, which I could see making good sense if the trough over the western Atlantic isn't strong enough to pull it northeast. Our system would be in a close relationship with the cut-off upper low over the Gulf of Mexico at that point. Its also showing a stronger system. When the current convection goes away at Dmin, the next fire up of convection should be our ticket ,for the shear would have reduced enough to induce faster development. Member Since: 4 mei 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

1157. Grothar 5:13 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Hey, MrSTormX Look at it now. I can't be on long. Ribs are almost done. Member Since: 17 juli 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19488

1158. cchsweatherman 5:15 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting Levi32: 12z NOGAPS is back to what the 0z run showed, developing the storm off the coast of Nicaragua moving slowly northwest, which I could see making good sense if the trough over the western Atlantic isn't strong enough to pull it northeast. Our system would be in a close relationship with the cut-off upper low over the Gulf of Mexico at that point. Gonna have an update today? Definitely interested on your take with the change in the computer models over the past 24 hours. Member Since: 14 april 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

1159. Bitmap7 5:15 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: 12z CMC has gone very aggressive in this run. Strong tropical cyclone over the Cayman islands in 144 hours: Thats the Cat4 Hurricane Paloma scenario. The GFS, NOGAPS and CMC so far have all been stronger on these runs. Even more exited about the GFDL and HWRF. Member Since: 4 mei 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

1160. Levi32 5:15 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting Bitmap7: Its also showing a stronger system. When the current convection goes away at Dmin, the next fire up of convection should be our ticket ,for the shear would have reduced enough to induce faster development. It's going to be a good 3 days yet before the upper level winds relax over a large-enough area to allow significant development. The fact that the surface trough already appeared yesterday is more of a teaser, but the jet will still be taking its time moving northward. Wind shear hasn't even lessened since yesterday. Member Since: 24 november 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

1161. MrstormX 5:16 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting Grothar: Hey, MrSTormX Look at it now. I can't be on long. Ribs are almost done. Hey Grothar, it's definitely ramping up now into a classic hook echo. Member Since: 27 mei 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4221

1162. cchsweatherman 5:16 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: 12z CMC has gone very aggressive in this run. Strong tropical cyclone over the Cayman islands in 144 hours: Also wouldn't be moving much at all given the ridging blocking north of the system. Member Since: 14 april 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

1163. Levi32 5:17 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting cchsweatherman: Gonna have an update today? Definitely interested on your take with the change in the computer models over the past 24 hours. I'm about to write my blog soon, just taking in some more stuff first (only woke up a little while ago lol). Member Since: 24 november 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

1164. Levi32 5:17 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: 12z CMC has gone very aggressive in this run. Strong tropical cyclone over the Cayman islands in 144 hours: Good to see the CMC fulfilling its reputation again lol. Interesting, though. Member Since: 24 november 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

1165. Grothar 5:18 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting Levi32: I'm about to write my blog soon, just taking in some more stuff first (only woke up a little while ago lol). It's OK Levi. I nap a couple times a day. (Whether I want to or not) It is refreshing. Member Since: 17 juli 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19488

1166. islander101010 5:19 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
canadian is teasing people again Member Since: 11 september 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2963

1167. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:19 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: 12z CMC has gone very aggressive in this run. Strong tropical cyclone over the Cayman islands in 144 hours: what a way to start the season lets just scare the crap out of everybody lets see what next run shows shall we Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40375

1168. MrstormX 5:19 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: 12z CMC has gone very aggressive in this run. Strong tropical cyclone over the Cayman islands in 144 hours: Drastic, I put doubt on that scenario. Member Since: 27 mei 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4221

1169. xcool 5:20 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
i wait for 18z cmc models Member Since: 26 september 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1170. 7080734 5:20 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting MrstormX: Hey Grothar, it's definitely ramping up now into a classic hook echo. Don't you mean Bow Echo? Member Since: 25 januari 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 81

1171. Grothar 5:20 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting MrstormX: Hey Grothar, it's definitely ramping up now into a classic hook echo. Odd looking feature. There was something similiar that exploded over NY State a few years back. Did tremendous amount of damage with derecho winds. Member Since: 17 juli 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19488

1172. Levi32 5:20 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting Grothar: It's OK Levi. I nap a couple times a day. (Whether I want to or not) It is refreshing. Except in my timezone this wasn't napping, lol. Member Since: 24 november 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

1173. cchsweatherman 5:20 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting Levi32: I'm about to write my blog soon, just taking in some more stuff first (only woke up a little while ago lol). Sounds good. No rush man. Member Since: 14 april 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

1174. MiamiHurricanes09 5:21 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: what away to start the season lets just scare the crap out of everybody lets see what next run shows shall we LOL, it's the CMC, if it didn't show at least 1 run blowing the system into a hurricane it wouldn't be the CMC. Unlikely that ever happens, but eh, you never know. Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1175. Bitmap7 5:22 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting Levi32: It's going to be a good 3 days yet before the upper level winds relax over a large-enough area to allow significant development. The fact that the surface trough already appeared yesterday is more of a teaser, but the jet will still be taking its time moving northward. Wind shear hasn't even lessened since yesterday. Actually since yesterday the shear just north of panama has fallen down to mostly 20 knots, the unchanged area is the area further north of panama, but the maps now indicate its also falling. I agree however that the shear in the central Caribbean will take a few days to die down. Member Since: 4 mei 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

1176. MrstormX 5:23 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting 7080734: Don't you mean Bow Echo? The Hook Echo (or comma echo) is basically a mature bow echo with an evident cyclonic and Anticyclonic rotation. Member Since: 27 mei 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4221

1177. JRRP 5:27 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Member Since: 16 augustus 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4303

1178. Levi32 5:28 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
12z UKMET 144 hours has a nice low SW of Jamaica. Member Since: 24 november 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

1179. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:28 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting JRRP: ya its lighting up Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40375

1180. IKE 5:28 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Member Since: 9 juni 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1181. islander101010 5:29 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
hope a wolf eats that canadian model only a few weeks of the yr (late aug. and sept) is that model worth a crap Member Since: 11 september 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2963

1182. Grothar 5:29 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting MrstormX: The Hook Echo (or comma echo) is basically a mature bow echo with an evident cyclonic and Anticyclonic rotation. Well, guess you told him. Member Since: 17 juli 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19488

1183. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:31 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting IKE: i got a bad feeling iam not going to get to post those numbers this year Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40375

1184. MrstormX 5:34 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting islander101010: hope a wolf eats that canadian model only a few weeks of the yr (late aug. and sept) is that model worth a crap Well it is not that bad, it just varies widely...often time overestimating strength, however at points last year it was on cue with the EMCWF and was pretty accurate. Basically it's a two edged sword, one side is rusty and the other side is sharp. Member Since: 27 mei 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4221

1185. IKE 5:34 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: i got a bad feeling iam not going to get to post those numbers this year That CMC run may bring in some GOM-casters. Stay tuned! $$ Member Since: 9 juni 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1186. Grothar 5:34 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting Levi32: Except in my timezone this wasn't napping, lol. You knew I knew that. LOL Member Since: 17 juli 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19488

1187. Bitmap7 5:34 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting IKE: Yeah I don't trust that. Its also uber scary. Like Paloma times ten. Will wait for the 00z thank you. Member Since: 4 mei 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

1188. MrstormX 5:35 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
TORNADO WARNING ILC063-091-105-197-291815- /O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0013.110529T1732Z-110529T1815Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN GRUNDY COUNTY... KANKAKEE COUNTY... NORTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY... EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN WILL COUNTY... * UNTIL 115 PM CDT * AT 1228 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DWIGHT...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BOURBONNAIS...KANKAKEE...BRADLEY...MANTENO...MOMEN CE...GARDNER... BRACEVILLE...HERSCHER...AROMA PARK...ST. ANNE...GRANT PARK... HOPKINS PARK...SOUTH WILMINGTON...EAST BROOKLYN...GODLEY... REDDICK...ESSEX...BUCKINGHAM...UNION HILL AND BONFIELD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. && LAT...LON 4101 8771 4107 8848 4124 8844 4128 8753 4101 8753 TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 274DEG 49KT 4115 8836 $$ RATZER Member Since: 27 mei 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4221

1189. xcool 5:39 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
IKE.lmao cmc needs help Member Since: 26 september 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1190. Bitmap7 5:43 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Paloma+ cmc= arlene Worst part the cmc brings the eye a top our island Member Since: 4 mei 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

1191. islander101010 5:44 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
summer camp rock festival south of chicago is on rain delay. that will mess up their webcast Member Since: 11 september 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2963

1192. Bitmap7 5:46 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
cmc is showing a cat1 cat 2 hurricane though. Member Since: 4 mei 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

1193. CyclonicVoyage 5:48 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Bow segment heading right for Chicago, N Indiana & Southern MI. Member Since: 30 januari 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

1194. MrstormX 5:50 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1247 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011 ILC091-197-291815- /O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-110529T1815Z/ KANKAKEE IL-WILL IL- 1247 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN WILL AND KANKAKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT... Member Since: 27 mei 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4221

1195. ackee 5:52 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
What all the models are all hinting is that there is a real chance we see a TD or TS this week its pointless trying to forecast where it will go at this point it could go NE Or NW, but I prefer to watch the Ecmwf model seem to be a bit consistent that the other models guess we see. Member Since: 15 juli 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1194

1196. MrstormX 5:54 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Kankakee High School WebCam Member Since: 27 mei 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4221

1198. MrstormX 5:56 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
SEL5 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 395 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 130 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NORTHWEST OHIO LAKE ERIE LAKE HURON LAKE MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF VALPARAISO INDIANA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT CLEMENS MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 394... DISCUSSION...A FAST-MOVING BOW ECHO COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN IL WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD AT 45-50 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TODAY. A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT /DERECHO/ IS POSSIBLE. RAPID DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE BOW AS THE WARM FROM RETREATS... SUGGESTING BOW MAY MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY OF WARM FRONT... COUPLED WITH HIGH LEVEL OF MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF BOW SUPPORTS A THREAT OF QLCS TORNADOES ALONG THE BOW...AS WELL AS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE BOW. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045. ...HART Member Since: 27 mei 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4221

1199. Grothar 6:00 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Member Since: 17 juli 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19488

1201. MrstormX 6:01 PM GMT op 29 mei 2011
Quoting Grothar: Interesting how the radar data just got lost after the storm moved over WFO Romeoville. Member Since: 27 mei 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4221

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