Radiation from Japan not likely to harm North America
Radiation from Japan's stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant has been detected 100 miles to the northeast, over the Pacific Ocean, by the U.S. military. Westerly to southwesterly winds have predominated over Japan the past few days, carrying most of the radiation eastwards out to sea. The latest forecast for Sendai, Japan, located about 40 miles north of the Fukushima nuclear plant, calls for winds with a westerly component to dominate for the remainder of the week, with the exception of a 6-hour period on Tuesday. Thus, any radiation released by the nuclear plant will primarily affect Japan or blow out to sea. A good tool to predict the radiation cloud's path is NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model. The model uses the GFS model's winds to track the movement of a hypothetical release of a substance into the atmosphere. One can specify the altitude of the release as well as the location, and follow the trajectory for up to two weeks. However, given the highly chaotic nature of the atmosphere's winds, trajectories beyond about 3 days have huge uncertainties.One can get only a general idea of where a plume is headed beyond 3 days. I've been performing a number of runs of HYSPLIT over past few days, and so far great majority of these runs have taken plumes of radioactivity emitted from Japan's east coast eastwards over the Pacific, with the plumes staying over water for at least 5 days. Some of the plumes move over eastern Siberia, Alaska, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico in 5 - 7 days. Such a long time spent over water will mean that the vast majority of the radioactive particles will settle out of the atmosphere or get caught up in precipitation and rained out. It is highly unlikely that any radiation capable of causing harm to people will be left in atmosphere after seven days and 2000+ miles of travel distance. Even the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which had a far more serious release of radioactivity, was unable to spread significant contamination more than about 1000 miles.
Figure 1. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Saturday, March 12, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 2. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Sunday, March 13, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 3. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Monday, March 14, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
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You may access any of these files going here for the model job
I highly recommend the Google Earth overlay KMZ file
"Fuel rods at the quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant's No. 2 reactor were fully exposed at one point after its cooling functions failed, the plant operator said Monday, indicating the critical situation of the reactor's core beginning to melt due to overheating.
"The rods were exposed as a fire pump to pour seawater into the reactor to cool it down ran out of fuel, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said. The firm had reported the loss of cooling functions as an emergency to the government.
"TEPCO said water levels later recovered to cover 30 centimeters in the lower parts of the fuel rods.
"The seawater injection operation started at 4:34 p.m., but water levels in the No. 2 reactor have since fallen sharply with only one out of five fire pumps working. The other four were feared to have been damaged by a blast that occurred in the morning at the nearby No. 3 reactor."
Exactly. And if they don't die within a month from acute radiation poisoning, they will likely die within the next 5 years from some form of cancer or chronic radiation poisoning.
That said... the workers at the nuclear plants are considered (to me, at least) as unsung heroes. Without them working, and putting their life at risk, we wouldn't be speaking of "the possibility" of a full meltdown. We would be speaking of thousands more deaths as a result of a full and catastrophic complete meltdown.
Yep, those are world heroes, their families should be compensated with millions too.
Absolutely. The media will be fawning over stories of the rescuers, and those who died while saving other people. What won't be mentioned is what *didn't happen* people of the work that others (who died, or will die) accomplished.
Yes, makes sense, and I meant no hostility. I too am exactly as you describe here. But this blog is, among other things, a study in human nature, complete with the expected array of shortcomings. It's also a fantastic place to get up to the minute news, at least during events like this, and is routinely ahead of the curve compared to many news outlets. For that I applaud the regular posters.
I've got ESPN, is that close?
1535: Just to recap for you: We're getting reports that water levels in reactor 2 at Fukushima have fallen sharply, leaving the nuclear fuel rods fully exposed and raising fears of a meltdown. More as it comes in.
1531: Japanese broadcaster NHK is saying that pressure inside reactor 2 at Fukushima rose suddenly when the air flow gauge was "accidentally" turned off. That blocked the flow of water into the reactor leading to full exposure of the rods, it says. That report has not been confirmed.
ESPN doesn't work for women. Sometimes works for my wife, but only during football season.
Tokyo Electric Power Company is battling to cool a reactor to prevent another explosion at its nuclear power plant in quake-hit Fukushima Prefecture.
The utility firm said on Monday afternoon that fuel rods are exposed at the Number Two reactor of its Fukushima Number One plant after the level of coolant water dropped. At around 6:20pm, the power company began pumping in seawater.
Tokyo Electric says it had to halt the process due to fuel loss for the pumping system, possibly leaving the fuel rods in the reactor exposed. The firm says a core meltdown might have occurred.
The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency says that pumping seawater into the reactor is working now.
Earlier in the day, the firm told the government that the reactor had lost all cooling capability due to a failure of the emergency power system.
Since then, the company has tried to circulate the coolant by steam instead of electricity. But attempts to lower the temperature inside the reactor chamber have not worked well.
The company is also considering opening a hole in the reactor housing building to release hydrogen generated by the exposed fuel rods.
Accumulated hydrogen has caused blasts at two other reactors at the plant.
Monday, March 14, 2011 20:36 +0900 (JST)
Video Quality
Low (256K)High (512K).
11,000 and counting dead/Millions without supplies
6 Nuclear plants in danger of meltdown...
1 Nation in ruins
(Sarcasm on)That's just what NE Japan needs right now. a lttile radiation...
Notice there is sound and you can hear various detonations (seems like 3 det.).... There is also a fireball, different from the 1rst. blast...
Yesterday the detection of radiation by US military was only a rumor.... Today thats real....
There is radiation 60 miles NE. So the truth is being distorted... We can't trust much of what is being said...
So, make your own analisys...
My opinion is that People living closer to Japan, in all the Pacific islands, Hawaii, West US coast, Canada, Alaska, should get their own ways to monitor radiation. You can't trust what is being said...
Fuel rods in earthquake-damaged Japanese nuclear reactor have become exposed again, Kyodo News agency reports.
Now this is scary. Where did you see this?
Japanese officials say the nuclear fuel rods appear to be melting inside all three of the most troubled nuclearreactors - AP
The South Atlantic System(near bottom right of map)
Looks to be emerging into the ocean...
The No.3 nuclear reactor of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant at Minamisoma is seen burning after a blast following an earthquake and tsunami in this handout satellite image taken March 14, 2011. REUTERS/Digital Globe/Handout
Some comments here:
Link
There is no water covering the fuel rods, which means they heat up much faster and radiation increases.
There are five fire pumps doing the pumping, but that four were damaged, likely when unit 3 blew up. The one that remains is working on unit 2, but units 1 and 3 still need cooling water. The implication is that there is plenty of ocean but not enough pump capacity to move the cooling water into the reactors which will lead to continued melting of the zirconium rods. That in turn could allow the fuel to go critical again, producing more heat.
That has never happened before, it's uncharted territory and rather scary to tell you the truth.
1611: Another four aftershocks in quick succession, measuring 5.1 and 5.2 magnitude, have again rattled the north-east coast of Japan, the US Geological Survey reports.
3x the potential results (especially locally), but for impact here, there just isn't enough info to really know. It depends on how high the radioactive particles get, what those radioactive particles are (radioactive Nitrogen, Iodine, Cesium, Strontium, Uranium, Plutonium, etc.), and wind profiles at the time of release (and the following several weeks)
Most experts aren't expecting a reprise of the 1986 Chernobyl meltdown, which killed 32 plant workers and firefighters in the former Soviet Union and at least 4,000 others from cancers tied to radioactive material released by the plant. The Japanese plants are designed differently, including a series of protections aimed at preventing leakage in the event of a disaster.
Analysts said Japan's crisis is unique.
"This is unprecedented," said Stephanie Cooke, the author of "In Mortal Hands: A Cautionary History of the Nuclear Age." "You've never had a situation with multiple reactors at risk."
2.18am Japanese officials say that nuclear fuel rods appear to be melting inside all three nuclear reactors. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said: "Although we cannot directly check it, it's highly likely happening.'' Some experts would consider that a partial meltdown of the reactor. Others, though, reserve that term for times when nuclear fuel melts through a reactor's innermost chamber but not through the outer containment shell.
2.11am US President Barack Obama reiterated the US's offer of assistance to Japan saying he was "heartbroken" by the scenes of devastation emerging from the area.
"We will stand with Japan in the difficult days ahead," US President Barack Obama
2.07am Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said he considered it his country's "moral responsibility" to help Japan and ordered the government to increase energy supplies to the country. Russia said yesterday that it was ready to divert some 6000 megawatts of electricity from its operations to help Japan deal with their power shortfall.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/world/magnitude-quake-strik es-japan/story-e6frfkyi-1226019903430#ixzz1GajNHQ0 0
Very scary to hear it..I think if we are looking at something like this, our govt should be ready and prep for a situation that could happen in Japan..winds changed from day to day so why not prep our side of the world if/when it comes here? (and please Im not trying to be political)
how many reactors were at Chernobyl?
The little system is fightin, but it looks like the storm is losing its tropical characteristics
Couple of items:
- if you don't vent the pressure, you could break the containment vessel, and then you would have a catastrophic meltdown, with the rods exposed to the open air.
- They aren't just pumping in seawater. They are pumping in seawater mixed with Boronic acid. Boron is an excellent neutron damper, which means it "shuts off" nuclear reactions.
- You can't flood the containment buildings, since the walls are not necessarily waterproof containers, and there is also the slight fact that the walls pretty much don't exist due to hydrogen gas explosions.
- You can't just treat the symptoms of a meltdown, since the heat is being maintained from within. Even if you cool the reactor containment vessel, the reactor itself is still heating up.
consisted of four reactors of type RBMK-1000, each capable of producing 1000 megawatts of electric power (3.2 GW of thermal power), and the four together produced about 10% of Ukraine's electricity at the time of the accident.
Very well stated.
Exactly. Chernobyl strikes a chord with many people not familiar with nuclear physics, but it is like comparing a gasoline tanker fire with a 5-gallon gas can fire. Both are bad, and both use the same fuel, but one is under a lot more control than the other.
If that forecast is right,it means Weak El Nino trying to appear by late Summer and Fall?
CTV.ca News Staff
As many as 2,000 bodies washed up on Japan's shores on Monday as officials struggled to deal with the dead, hospitals ran out of medicine and entire communities in the hardest-hit areas remained completely silent.
The destruction from Friday's 8.9 magnitude earthquake and tsunami was so widespread that millions of people were still without shelter, food, water or heat on Monday, heading into their fourth night in near-zero degree temperatures.
So far the official death toll is at 2,800, but on Sunday Japanese officials predicted that number would rise to around 10,000.
On Monday morning Japan's Kyodo News reported the grim discovery of 2,000 bodies on two shorelines in Miyagi prefecture.
About 1,000 of the bodies were observed in the town of Minamisanriku -- where roughly 10,000 people are said to be unaccounted for.
In Minamisanriku, 785 bodies had been recovered by noon local time on Monday, local police told Kyodo News.
Rescue workers were trying to recover up to 300 bodies in Sendai, the capital of Miyagi.
Another 8,000 people in Otsuchi, in Iwate prefecture, are said to be unaccounted for.
However, there was some confusion about the total number of bodies found Monday, with The Associated Press citing an official who said 1,000 bodies had washed up on shore, not 2,000.
Casey Calamusa, of World Vision, said the organization is attempting to get basic survival necessities into the hardest-hit regions.
"Some of the greatest needs are food and water, temporary shelter, and World Vision will also be focusing on children and the psychological toll that this earthquake has had by setting up child-friendly spaces for them," he told CTV News Channel from Tokyo.
Japan's ambassador to Canada, Kaoru Ishikawa, said Monday the devastation is so broad that it will be difficult for foreign relief teams to help.
Normally in a disaster situation, local municipalities welcome international aid teams and help them reach the hardest-hit areas. But several days after the disaster, he said, there are still many areas where local officials have been completely silent, suggesting entire communities were obliterated.
"Even the local authorities unfortunately are gone, and local inhabitants as well. So this is a very unusual situation which not many countries have ever seen, certainly not one my country has ever seen before," the ambassador told CTV's Canada AM from Ottawa.
CTV's Tom Walters said it has been difficult for officials to accurately estimate the number of dead.
"There are concerns the death toll is going to be very much greater than what has been officially stated at this point and I think there's just a general sense that there is no calculation yet of the terrible human cost of this tragedy," Walters told CTV News Channel from Tokyo.
Recovery efforts continued across Japan Monday but agencies were struggling with myriad challenges.
Power rationing is in place in some areas, there are ongoing nuclear concerns, and damaged hospitals are struggling with the sheer volume of patients waiting to be treated.
In addition, Japan's stock market plummeted on Monday. On the first business day after last week's catastrophe, the Nikkei Index dropped 6.2 per cent, or 634 points, its lowest point in months.
Northeastern Japan, the region hardest hit by the quake and tsunami, has experienced more than 150 aftershocks since the initial temblor.
2.18am Japanese officials say that nuclear fuel rods appear to be melting inside all three nuclear reactors. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said: "Although we cannot directly check it, it's highly likely happening.'' Some experts would consider that a partial meltdown of the reactor. Others, though, reserve that term for times when nuclear fuel melts through a reactor's innermost chamber but not through the outer containment shell.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/world/magnitude-quake-strik es-japan/story-e6frfkyi-1226019903430#ixzz1Gam4T18 t
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