Radiation from Japan not likely to harm North America
Radiation from Japan's stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant has been detected 100 miles to the northeast, over the Pacific Ocean, by the U.S. military. Westerly to southwesterly winds have predominated over Japan the past few days, carrying most of the radiation eastwards out to sea. The latest forecast for Sendai, Japan, located about 40 miles north of the Fukushima nuclear plant, calls for winds with a westerly component to dominate for the remainder of the week, with the exception of a 6-hour period on Tuesday. Thus, any radiation released by the nuclear plant will primarily affect Japan or blow out to sea. A good tool to predict the radiation cloud's path is NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model. The model uses the GFS model's winds to track the movement of a hypothetical release of a substance into the atmosphere. One can specify the altitude of the release as well as the location, and follow the trajectory for up to two weeks. However, given the highly chaotic nature of the atmosphere's winds, trajectories beyond about 3 days have huge uncertainties.One can get only a general idea of where a plume is headed beyond 3 days. I've been performing a number of runs of HYSPLIT over past few days, and so far great majority of these runs have taken plumes of radioactivity emitted from Japan's east coast eastwards over the Pacific, with the plumes staying over water for at least 5 days. Some of the plumes move over eastern Siberia, Alaska, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico in 5 - 7 days. Such a long time spent over water will mean that the vast majority of the radioactive particles will settle out of the atmosphere or get caught up in precipitation and rained out. It is highly unlikely that any radiation capable of causing harm to people will be left in atmosphere after seven days and 2000+ miles of travel distance. Even the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which had a far more serious release of radioactivity, was unable to spread significant contamination more than about 1000 miles.
Figure 1. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Saturday, March 12, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 2. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Sunday, March 13, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 3. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Monday, March 14, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Navy link isn't working for me..
Doesn't look like the front will bring much to ECFL. Nice ring aroun the moon tonight makes me want to hope.
Nite ya'll.
Atlantic
90Q
Indian Ocean
92B
Southern Hemisphere
98S
4.39pm NHK has reported the official death toll as 2476, with 17,000 missing.
Good nite....
Sleepy time for me also...
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 07-20102011
10:00 AM RET March 15 2011
==========================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 7 (1002 hPa) located at 13.0S 84.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots.
Near Gale Force Winds
======================
50 NM from the center
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.9S 82.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.1S 81.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.9S 76.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 15.4S 73.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
Additional Information
=====================
Recent METEOSAT7 pictures shows a partially exposed low level vortex centered southeast from the main convective activity. ASCAT 0412z swath confirms that maximum winds should locally reach near gale force winds but also shows that low level circulation remains elongated. The easterly vertical wind shear is not expected to significantly weaken within the next 24 hours.
It should then progressively decrease allowing the system to deepen significantly. Available numerical weather prediction models remains in a rather good agreement for a west southwestward track within the next days.
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Dow futures are off nearly 2%. Further deterioration is a definite possibility, particularly if European investors head for the door.
The US dollar is up, as are Treasuries, as investors seek shelter in US Government guaranteed securities. Commodities are off, reflecting lowered expectations for global growth and an unwinding of speculative long positions.
This may turn out to be a tipping point for equities. Expect some volatility this week. Friday is witching day for futures.
I simply cannot believe that what is apparently happening is actually happening. My mind has not accepted it yet. The strategy that seems to be left at this point is hope, and I pray that isn't in for too much of a dashing. How unimaginably, inconceivably tragic. May God look kindly on our folly.
WTO
Link
Regarding the danger of spent fuel ponds, this gives an idea: blogs.forbes.com --- "The pool cooling water must be continuously circulated. Without circulation, the still thermally hot irradiated nuclear fuel in the storage pools will begin to boil off the cooling water. Within a day or two, the pool’s water could completely boil away. Without cooling water, the irradiated nuclear fuel could spontaneously combust in an exothermic reaction. Since the storage pools are not located within containment, a catastrophic radioactivity release to the environment could occur. Up to 100 percent of the volatile radioactive Cesium-137 content of the pools could go up in flames and smoke, to blow downwind over large distances. Given the large quantity of irradiated nuclear fuel in the pool, the radioactivity release could be worse than the Chernobyl nuclear reactor catastrophe of 25 years ago."
Link
"0709: There is a fire at a spent fuel pond of a reactor and radioactivity has been released into the atmosphere, says the IAEA according to AFP news agency.
I read that, then went back to page here I was reading (the BBC link was the post I had been looking at), and this was *the very next* post I read, from 18 hours ago.
Scary kismet, and apparently a great "call" or concern by sunlinepr...
Jo :(
ABC.net.au
It is getting worse with each new report that rolls in.
Even though they happen and have happened more than once in recent years.
Real good.
From the east at 10 mph in Tokyo at the moment. Rain is in the forecast for the coming days.
Edit: from Stratfor.com
"The situation at the nuclear facility is uncertain, but clearly deteriorating. Currently, the radiation levels do not appear immediately life-threatening outside the 20km evacuation zone. But if there is a steady northerly wind, the potential for larger-scale evacuations of more populated areas may become a reality. This would present major challenges to the Japanese government. Further, the potential for panic-induced individual evacuations could trigger even greater problems for the government to manage."
from metro.tokyo.jp:
Population of Tokyo
Population Summary
As of October 1, 2009, the population of Tokyo is estimated to be 12.989 million, or about 10% of Japan's total population, and it has the largest population among all the 47 prefectures.
At 2,188 square kilometers, the area of Tokyo is 0.6% of the total area of Japan. With a population density of 5,937 persons per square kilometer, Tokyo is the most densely populated prefecture in Japan.
More accurately, the "stay inside" zone. There is also a no-fly zone extending 20km out from the plant.
Jo
Black rain. What next? It's becoming a Kurosawa film, except it's actually happening.
Weather Underground Forecast for Tuesday, March 15, 2011.
The low pressure system affecting Hokkaido and the southern Kuril islands will lift northeastward Tuesday, allowing for a brief window of dry weather for Hokkaido. As this system exits, another complex low pressure system will take shape over Honshu and the nearby western Pacific Ocean during the afternoon. As this system gathers, wrap around will pull moisture across Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu. This will lead to increased cloud cover and light scattered showers. Scattered showers will spread inland through the evening and will likely dampen the rescue and cleanup effort. Temperatures across the isles will be cooler Tuesday. Tokyo will reach a daytime high of 53(F)/12(C), while Okinawa reaches a high of 68(F)/20(C). This cooling trend will continue through the mid-week.
Thank god for small favors.
Jo
Hope it stays out.
Night is falling over northern Japan, and the winds are forecast to start shifting inland right about now. They seem to be running 8 to 10 mph in the area. Winds in Tokyo now out of the ENE.
Water in a pool storing spent nuclear fuel at the No. 4 reactor that caught fire Tuesday morning at the quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant may be boiling, causing the water level to drop, an official of Tokyo Electric Power Co. said.
The reactor was not in service when a magnitude 9.0 earthquake jolted Fukushima Prefecture and other areas in northeastern Japan on Friday, the official in charge of the facility said.
And here I was hoping to wake up to better newsd...
exposed spent fuel pools
a tidbit:
"“I’m still hopeful that they can contain all this,” Thomas B. Cochran, a senior scientist in the nuclear program of the Natural Resources Defense Council, a private group in Washington, said in an interview. “You’ve got time to put fire hoses up there and get it filled if it’s not leaking,” he said of the pool."
Pray for the 50 brave workers who remain at the plant trying to get this monster under control (800 have been evac'd).
WTO
it is nicely done. Thanks.
Incredible...
4am in Fla? You wake up early. But yeah, when I woke up CNN had a 'breaking news' headline that said the radioactivity levels went down. It was really nice. Then it disapeared and now it's all bad news.
This sucks. The only silver lining is that maybe the people on the bottom of the anti-regulation pyramid will see how much this costs in human lives as well as in monetary terms and finally understand that regulation increases productivity.
Oh, if only it would work that way. The Wall Street Journal yesterday ran an article that stated:
"Our view is that [nuclear power] should compete with other sources on a market basis, without subsidies or government loan guarantees. Every energy source has risks and economic externalities, whether they are noise and bird kills (wind), huge land requirements (solar), rig explosions and tanker spills (oil), or mining accidents (coal).
"But more than other energy sources, nuclear plants have had their costs increased by artificial political obstacles and delay."
So there you have it: the cancers and cellular mutations and other long-term biological hazards of nuclear radiation are no different than wind farms killing birds, or solar plants using up precious land. :-\
Just as the Deepwater Horizon debacle illogically brought an onslaught of calls for less regulation of offshore drilling, I was certain there'd be an equal outcry from industry proponents of nuclear. And now we have it...
Yes, I would say we'll see a TD later today...
In my previous career I was a civil engineer. we did a lot of work in third world countries. It was always a battle to enforce the safety standards that our insurance companies required. But in every case, after a few months of struggle, everyone used them. Further, they habits became standard on other sites as well.
Of course, we never were small fry and had to work with local bureacrats rather than buy their bosses. But even when I went to work with a very large multinational, safety was considered part of our competitive advantage for direct costs (lower insurance rates) but also for moral and professionalism of us in the rank and file.
Region: OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Geographic coordinates: 37.348N, 142.406E
Magnitude: 6.0 M
Depth: 15 km
Universal Time (UTC): 15 Mar 2011 09:49:54
Time near the Epicenter: 15 Mar 2011 18:49:54
Local standard time in your area: 15 Mar 2011 04:49:54
Location with respect to nearby cities:
137 km (85 miles) ENE (76 degrees) of Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
167 km (104 miles) SE (126 degrees) of Sendai, Honshu, Japan
176 km (110 miles) ESE (103 degrees) of Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
302 km (188 miles) NE (51 degrees) of TOKYO, Japan
Still holding out hope for some better news about the reactor situation as the day progresses...
The USS George Washington was docked for maintenance in Yokosuka, about 175 miles (280 kilometers) from the plant in Okuma, when instruments detected the radiation at 7 a.m. Tuesday (6 p.m. ET Monday), the Navy said in a statement.
Personnel will limit outdoor activities and secure external ventilation systems there and at a nearby air facility in Atsugi.
"There is no appreciable health risk, and we are being very conservative in our recommendations," U.S. Naval Forces Japan Commander Rear Adm. Richard Wren said.
In a recorded video message, Wren said the additional radiation exposure over the past 12 hours had been less than one month's exposure to naturally occurring background radiation.
(From CNN website)
DO NOT OPEN THE LINK posted by TXKeef CITED ABOVE.
I think it contains a virus.
maybe, it is nighttime over there? I not awake enough to be coherent. I see nothing also, Chicklit.
New updates? all over the place.
Posted by Goldy on Mon, Mar 14, 2011 at 8:03 PM
Kyodo News and NHK World are both reporting that Fukushima reactor number 4 is on fire. But ignore the category tag, and like Golob said, don't panic; there's no chance of a core meltdown in this reactor, because it was shut down and had no fuel at the time of the earthquake and tsunami.
So how'd it catch on fire? Well, the speculation is that spent fuel stored within the reactor container may have lost coolant, causing a hydrogen explosion, so you know what...? Maybe you should panic a little after all.
No, strike that, as Golob and others have pointed out, there's no chance of this being a Chernobyl-type disaster due to the design of the reactor, so it's not like we should be getting a radioactive cloud heading toward Seattle. Then again, if you're anywhere within 30 kilometers of Fukushima, panic, because the Japanese government is now reporting radiation being detected there at "dangerous levels" of 400 mili sievert and rising.
I see they continue the back and forth reporting of the incident.
Fukushima No. 1
-- Reactor No. 1 - Cooling failure, partial melting of core, vapor vented, hydrogen explosion, seawater pumped in.
-- Reactor No. 2 - Cooling failure, seawater pumped in, fuel rods fully exposed temporarily, damage to containment system, potential meltdown feared.
-- Reactor No. 3 - Cooling failure, partial melting of core feared, vapor vented, seawater pumped in, hydrogen explosion, high-level radiation measured nearby.
-- Reactor No. 4 - Under maintenance when quake struck, fire caused possibly by hydrogen explosion at pool holding spent fuel rods, pool water levels feared receding.
-- Reactor No. 5 - Under maintenance when quake struck.
-- Reactor No. 6 - Under maintenance when quake struck.
Fukushima No. 2
-- Reactor No. 1 - Cooling failure, then cold shutdown.
-- Reactor No. 2 - Cooling failure, then cold shutdown.
-- Reactor No. 3 - Cold shutdown.
-- Reactor No. 4 - Cooling failure, then cold shutdown.
Just watched ABC coverage of the disaster on Japan..they did a story on the 50 workers who have stayed behind to try to prevent a nuclear catastrophe..the unsung heros..
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