Radiation from Japan not likely to harm North America
Radiation from Japan's stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant has been detected 100 miles to the northeast, over the Pacific Ocean, by the U.S. military. Westerly to southwesterly winds have predominated over Japan the past few days, carrying most of the radiation eastwards out to sea. The latest forecast for Sendai, Japan, located about 40 miles north of the Fukushima nuclear plant, calls for winds with a westerly component to dominate for the remainder of the week, with the exception of a 6-hour period on Tuesday. Thus, any radiation released by the nuclear plant will primarily affect Japan or blow out to sea. A good tool to predict the radiation cloud's path is NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model. The model uses the GFS model's winds to track the movement of a hypothetical release of a substance into the atmosphere. One can specify the altitude of the release as well as the location, and follow the trajectory for up to two weeks. However, given the highly chaotic nature of the atmosphere's winds, trajectories beyond about 3 days have huge uncertainties.One can get only a general idea of where a plume is headed beyond 3 days. I've been performing a number of runs of HYSPLIT over past few days, and so far great majority of these runs have taken plumes of radioactivity emitted from Japan's east coast eastwards over the Pacific, with the plumes staying over water for at least 5 days. Some of the plumes move over eastern Siberia, Alaska, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico in 5 - 7 days. Such a long time spent over water will mean that the vast majority of the radioactive particles will settle out of the atmosphere or get caught up in precipitation and rained out. It is highly unlikely that any radiation capable of causing harm to people will be left in atmosphere after seven days and 2000+ miles of travel distance. Even the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which had a far more serious release of radioactivity, was unable to spread significant contamination more than about 1000 miles.
Figure 1. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Saturday, March 12, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 2. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Sunday, March 13, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 3. Forecast 7-day movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 12 UTC Monday, March 14, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity emitted at 2 levels is tracked: 100 meters (red) and 300 meters (blue). Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I would just like to say that we have discussed almost no weather since the end of January. It has been one freaky earthquake season....
I'm hoping they can get the reactor situation under control sooner rather than later, but not feeling so optimistic about it anymore...
Thanx for the linkie dinkie
Domo aarogotto
God bless whomever this ongoing disaster will effect.
I also have an ominous feeling that I haven't seen the end of this story either. My gut tells me this could get worse -- much worse. I pray I am wrong.
In reference to the Trinity test in New Mexico, where his Los Alamos team first tested the bomb, Oppenheimer famously recalled the Bhagavad Gita: "If the radiance of a thousand suns were to burst at once into the sky, that would be like the splendor of the mighty one." and "Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds."
A fire has erupted in a fourth reactor at the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, top Japanese official says.
The comment went totally over my head to be honest.
Official: Radiation levels at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant are at "levels that can impact human health" #quake http://on.cnn.com/fpRk6P - @cnnbrk
We have to have a Planetary Distress Flare or Something?
I mean, c'mon man!
Spock would have a plan, and Kirk would get the Lady.
We need some straight dope about these reactor conditions or maybe some Drone flight sniffs as well.
This is not the time for Japan to save face and teeter totter with info,..they have a clear obligation to share as in real time..
Make Haste and evacuate now.
I hate to even ask this, but what happens if open flame hits the spent rods? Big boom?
Worst case scenario... you have 4 meltdowns.. equivalent to 4 three mile islands.
That isn't even remotely close to what happened during the American nuclear weapons tests.
Its not the end of the world.
What sea water that is not being evaporated from the heat of the fuel would be returned to the sea radioactive? Or is there such a thing? Dumb ?
Well put, very well put.
Naw ,,nothing to worry bout here..
Then there is the Human Toll.
Theres ya problem I'd say.
From what CNN is reporting, the Japanese govt is not downplaying the situation anymore..there is a high level of urgency now to get these people out of harm way, they have evacuated most workers from the plant per CNN which says a lot, due to that the situation is lost and now its a matter of getting the hell out of dodge..
They gonna have to cover it somehow.
Well put...
Nuclear Fission is safe when the right measures are taken, and more plants need to be built. When you think of oil and coal, and how they have been destroying the environment for decades; id rather have a clean safe Nuclear Plant any day.
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