Little change to 99L, which remains very close to tropical depression status
A tropical disturbance (Invest 99L) centered 160 miles southwest of the Cayman Islands is moving south to southeast at 5 - 10 mph. A Hurricane Hunter flight arrived in the storm at about 11am this morning, and found a closed circulation with top winds at flight level (700 feet) of 33 mph. A closed circulation and 30 mph surface winds are necessary conditions for a tropical depression to exist, but the storm must also have a great deal of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center that persists for many hours. In the judgment of NHC, 99L does not qualify as a tropical depression in that regard. The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; 4.14" inches has fallen over the past 2 1/2 days at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Heavy rains have diminished over the Cayman Islands, but have spread to western Jamaica and west-central Cuba this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows that the surface circulation center is exposed to view, and 99L has a relatively meager amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The center is more than 80 miles west of the heaviest thunderstorm activity, and it is likely that 99L's center will relocate itself to the east to be more underneath the heaviest thunderstorms. Wind shear is marginal for development, 15 - 20 knots, due to the clockwise flow of air around an upper-level high pressure system near the coast of Honduras. The high is bringing strong upper-level winds out of the southwest to 99L. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west and north of 99L, and the strong southwesterly winds over the storm are bringing some of this dry into into the core of the storm, keeping all the heavy thunderstorm development confined to the east side of the center. The waters beneath 99L are very warm, 29°C, but 99L will not be able to take advantage of these warm waters until the shear relaxes. A new hurricane hunter aircraft will be in the storm tonight near 8pm EDT.
Forecast for 99L
The current southward movement of 99L is carrying the storm into a region of lower wind shear, and we should see 99L accumulate more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center beginning tonight. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will decline below 15 knots Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, which should allow the storm to become a tropical depression by Thursday. Steering currents will be weak today through Friday in the Western Caribbean, making it difficult to predict where 99L may go. The models are split into two camps, with the GFDL and HWRF models taking 99L to the west-northwest over the western tip of Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday as a hurricane. The rest of the models take 99L to the south over Honduras on Sunday, and keep the storm below hurricane strength. Given 99L's current southward motion and the possibility that the center will relocate farther to the east later today, this makes a track to the southwest towards Honduras more likely, I predict. NHC is giving 99L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I expect this will become Tropical Storm Richard by Friday.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 99L.
Death toll from Super Typhoon Megi in the Philippines remarkably low
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the full extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still unclear. However, the death toll from the great storm stands at only 19, reflecting the superior effort Philippines officials made to evacuate low-lying areas and get people out of locations prone to flash flooding and mudslides. Previous major typhoons to strike the Philippines have nearly always killed hundreds, and sometime thousands, so the preparation and evacuation efforts for Megi likely saved hundreds of lives. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Severe damage was done to Isabela Province in northern Luzon, and media reports indicate that 200,000 people are homeless.
Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Megi from NASA's Aqua satellite taken at 1:30am EDT October 20, 2010. At the time, Megi was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has intensified into a formidable Category 3 typhoon with 125 mph winds. Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China Sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to remain a very dangerous major typhoon through Friday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall north of Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon, or as a strong Category 2, bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China. The outer rain bands of Megi are already affecting the coast of China north of Hong Kong, as seen on Hong Kong radar and Taiwan radar.
Figure 3. Still frame of damage to NE Luzon Island from a video posted to YouTube by storm chaser James Reynolds of typhoonfury.com.
Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yes, probably.
But the question is will he wind up as King Richard or just Little Richard?
Time will tell.
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 17N82W DRIFTS SLOWLY S THROUGH
FRI THEN MOVES W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
............................................
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MEANDER OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN SHIFT N OF THE AREA
FRI WITH A RIDGE DISSECTING THE GULF FROM NW FLORIDA TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON.
He'll be a king for a time, I believe that for sure. But as soon as he peeks into the Gulf, he'll be sheared to death.
New center forming up now Ike. See here
Note the low level inflow to the South of the deep convection as evidenced by the fine "streamer" lines.
looks like td 19 on its way.
Poll Time:
Do you think 99L will be TD Nineteen at the
(A) 8 PM today
(B) 11 PM tonight
(C) 2 AM tomorrow morning
(D) 5 PM tomorrow morning
(E) Not until late tomorrow
maker two time gfs shows this flurries
Did you happen to take note of the CARIB on the last frame of the ECMWF you posted?
We're not done...
can we plzs stop with the polls plzs
It does seem that way, yes.
But the Floridacasters have got to have one more shot at glory before the season is done. Or they might even get two, if something moves in from the CATL to the S-CAR in about ten days, as Levi has been talking about.
However, if all that fails then just as every good sports fan knows..
"There's always next year!"
Yup. The pattern favors the eastern Caribbean next.
Ah, they are twice as sweet when it lands in your lap. Are you sharing with them? LOL
Likewise
I think the thing that is poking me in the ribs right now is the 5-day model runs showing a powerful hurricane moving into the southern GoM. I mean really, 5 days from now? Yet we're looking at a healthy invest and told not to believe those 5 day models, believe other ones instead.
It is frustrating.
Don't go bug eyed waiting for it to explode tonight!
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #20
TYPHOON JUAN (MEGI)
5:00 AM PhST October 20 2010
=======================================
Typhoon "JUAN" continues to move away from the country.
At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Juan (Megi) located at 19.1°N 117.4°E or 300 km west northwest of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gustiness up to 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast slowly
Additional Information
========================
With this development and unless re-curvature occurs, this is the final bulletin for this weather disturbance.
However, residents along the coastal areas of Western Luzon are alerted of possible storm surges.
Florida appears to be the target of choice in the new model runs.
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Strong enough and deep enough to catch 99L?
Maybe...
PSU e-Wall WV Loop
I love the polls!!! - keep 'em coming!
2nd storm in a row. Completely utterly failed with Paula and 99L.
If you look at the visible satellite you can clearly see the LLC migrating towards the convection, and we see some convection beginning to fire up in the SW quadrant. All directly underneath an anticyclone.
We're entering diurnal max, and we have almost 5 hours for the NHC to make the call. Should convection increase markedly around the LLC, and considering the proximity to Jamaica and moreso the Caymans, the NHC will have to make the call.
.
.
TD at 11.
BUT, AFTER numerous runs of the Satellite Loops, and zoom ins and outs, both of Vsible and IR Loops, I would have to say 99L is getting its act together and the COC is at 17N/82W. Now we will have to wait and see if any convection will start building up in the next 12-24 hours or so, and if pre-Rich heads to the West and Northwest. So hard to tell what he may do....JMO
Strong Wind Signal, No. 3
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.
The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is in force.
This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62
kilometres per hour are expected.
At 6 a.m., Severe Typhoon Megi was estimated to be about 480
kilometres southeast of Hong Kong (near 19.2 degrees north
117.4 degrees east) and is forecast to move north at about
10 kilometres per hour across the northern part of the South
China Sea and gradually edge closer to the south China
coast.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18
6:00 AM JST October 21 2010
=================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Marianas
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 16.4N 144.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots
Dvorak Intensity:
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.0N 139.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
like 12z gfs i posting
My updated forecast on 99L.
However, 99L seems to be really annoying. This updated forecast is the second one I issued on it, and it too (in terms of track) may be wrong. First I thought 99L would go ENE straight into E Cuba. Then I thought it would drift ENE from its current locatoin, and then turn WNW and head toward the west tip of Cuba. But now 99L is going ESE, and looks like it may turn WSW! Argghhh! LOL.
Dude, really? Who TF do you think you are.
Go to your TEA party rally and leave this blog now. No spot for such comments on this blog.
This a weather blog and we are here to discuss weather not read your insensitive words.
What could happen there?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?
Looks like the flight is still on according to the NHC Recon Plan of the Day (see link posted above).
A. 21/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0319A CYCLONE
C. 20/2030Z
D. 18.0N 82.5W
E. 20/2330Z TO 21/0330Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
yeah, this doesn't look that good for the Caymans. Quote from my blog on 99L and the Caymans:
"Cayman Islands: Looks like they will get the most rainfall. It has already rained there heavily with 99L's northern rain bands. Once the NE/stalled track reverses to a WNW track, another round of rain bands will add to the already heavy rainfall totals. Wind could become a problem if a strengthening Richard passes WNW through the islands while it tracks parallel to the S coast of Cuba."
Go away, would you? Please?
I don't see this as an option, where's the choice for 5 AM tomorrow morning? That's when I am guessing this'll become TD 19.
He's a Richard Head!
Yeah, I am hooked. What's supposed to happen in the E Caribbean?
LOL, yep. Sheared systems can look strong if you ID the center in the wrong spot. I remember that on here with Bonnie earlier this year.
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