Otto transitioning to a tropical storm
Subtropical Storm Otto, the 15th named storm of this very busy 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Otto is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and northern Lesser Antilles. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 2) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen in several locations over the past three days, and the St. Thomas Airport officially recorded 9.30" of rain so far from Otto. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for both the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico today. Martinique radar shows considerably less activity over the Lesser Antilles.
Figure 1. NASA MODIS image of Subtropical Storm Otto taken at 12:55pm EDT October 6, 2010.
Satellite loops show Otto's heaviest thunderstorms lie in two bands to the south, many hundreds of miles from the storm's center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system over Otto has pumped cold, dry air aloft into the storm, keeping it from being fully tropical. However, the upper low is weakening, and Otto has recently developed a burst of heavy thunderstorms near its center, and very tropical storm-like spiral bands are now developing to the east and south of Otto's center. Otto is fast becoming fully tropical, and will be called Tropical Storm Otto later today. The storm's newly developing spiral bands will mostly stay offshore, but a few heavy rain showers capable of dumping 1 - 2 inches of rain may affect the Turks and Caicos Islands today, as well as the northern Dominican Republic. The heavier rains in Otto's old rain band over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will continue to dump flooding rains in those locations through tonight. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday. Given the very warm waters of 28 - 29°C and low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots today, Otto may approach hurricane strength before high wind shear in excess of 20 knots impacts the storm Friday night.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Otto over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen in many regions. The strange ray-like pattern to the east of the radar location (the white "+" symbol) is due to mountains blocking the radar beam.
Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather has formed in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles west of Jamaica. The disturbance has a moderate area of intense thunderstorms that brought close to two inches of rain to Grand Cayman Island over the past day. The disturbance is under a high 15 - 25 knots of wind shear, and is not likely to develop significantly today. The disturbance is headed south at 10 - 15 mph, and will bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. None of the models develop the disturbance, but it does have some potential for slow development beginning on Friday when it will be off the coast of Nicaragua, in a region of lower wind shear and higher moisture. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday.
Monsoon flooding kills 139 in Asia
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 91 people and left 100 more missing. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 48 people, with 23 people still missing. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains of up to seven inches over the past week have also hit nearby Hainen Island in China. The resulting flooding was the worst in 50 years there, and killed one person and forced the evacuation of 55 villages with 213,000 people.
Press
I've been a subscriber for several years to NewScientist magazine, a weekly science news magazine that does a great job staying abreast of all the latest breaking science happenings. This week's October 4 issue features a 4-page section on Extreme Weather that I wrote for them as part of their "Instant Expert" series. If you haven't ever seen the magazine, I enthusiastically recommend taking a look.
If you're a fan of the geek humor xkcd webcomic, see if you can find me on the hilarious map of the "blogosphere" on comic artist Randall Munroe's latest xkcd comic. I like the disparity between my influence in September vs. March, but thought I should have been closer to the "Bay of Flame!" I also appeared in a mouse "rollover" text box in an xkcd comic during the Gulf oil disaster earlier this year.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Whoa. Is that Igor's wake across the upper right corner of the second graphic? Very cool-looking.
Didn't notice it at first glance, but wow, that is cool!
Just checking in, and saw this VERY GOOD POST...
Thanks, Neo..
I think the 'season is dissapointing' comments are being taken out of context a little.
Originally, the point was made that the season had not/probably will not live up to the Expected Hyper-Active that many were expecting.
Yes it has certainly been an 'active season', but less so than the pre-season forecasts were suggesting.
The fact that no major hurricanes affected the US is also a bit of a dissapointment, for some people, apparently. (I include the Media in this..)
As things stand now, it seems less and less likely that anything major will form at all (in spite of Climo. saying that it should)
Point is, Climate Change (whatever the causes) seems to be impacting the Weather, and we are seemingly at a loss to figure out how and why it is doing that.
I'd like to talk about the subject you bring up as well.
I think we're gonna' have to wait for Dr. Masters to do a blog about it.
actually thats 2 to 1... again everyone take neos bets ;)
Intermediate advisories like 2pm 8pm etc are only issued when there is a watch or warning somewhere from the storm.
And goes into the yucatan, like half of our storms have done. NEXT!!
000
ABNT20 KNHC 071820
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 7 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL
STORM OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 255 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK
ISLAND AND ABOUT 620 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
El pronostico es que sea absorbida por OTTO....
You're welcome :O)
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-072000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.MA.W.0060.101007T1804Z-101007T2000Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
204 PM AST THU OCT 7 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM...
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM...
ATLANTIC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10 NM TO 19.5N...
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N...
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM...
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N...
* UNTIL 400 PM AST
* AT 156 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OFF THE
FAJARDO COAST MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
AND CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS.
http://bit.ly/brGbDO
Enjoy.
--
--
Dustin Norlund
bye bye gulf THCP
New surface low right at the very bottom edge of this image in the center. Not much convection at this time but the streamlines from the clouds show the definite outline of the low.
Model prediction when they merge....
Yeah, it's about late 950s/early 960mbs.
Supposed to deepen to 949mb by 00UTC tomorrow according to the UKMET.
This image shows the low centered in the frame.
There is some right on the Southern edge of the circulation though and we need to watch this to see if it starts to build over the center itself.
Day 7...
78.4°F
Clear
Humidity:31%
Dew Point:45°F
Wind:8.1 mph Variable
Wind Gust:8.1 mph
Pressure:30.02 in(Falling)
Heat Index:78°F
Visibility:10.0 miles
UV:11 out of 16
Pollen:7.50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation:104 ft
Yup, but then you know how he tends to exaggerate things.
Well, you and KOTG wanted the blog to yourselves, looks like you got it.
The 10-year (2000-2009) average of named tropical systems is 14.7*, so we are above that average. Go ahead and round that up to 15, if you'd like...but remember that there are seven or eight weeks of the season yet.
* - If subtropical storms and tropical/subtropical depressions are counted--which they normally aren't--the 2000-2009 average is 17.3 storms, while 2010 is at 17...just below average with, again, many weeks to go. For the record, here's the NHC's listing of storm counts over the period:
2000: 19 total storms (HU, TS, TD, SS, SD) / 14 tropical storms or hurricanes
2001: 17 / 15
2002: 14 / 12
2003: 21 / 16
2004: 16 / 14
2005: 31 / 27
2006: 10 / 10
2007: 17 / 14
2008: 17 / 16
2009: 11 / 9
TOTALS: 173 / 147
i thought bought were married, but to each their own ;)
I take it the blue line is the cold front you talked about. What does the red lines represent?
Oh, now, don't just throw something like that out and go back into hiding; please stay and tell us all what it is you think is being exaggerated.
For the record, the name of my blog is "Weather By The Numbers", and the tagline is "A solid but breezy look at tropical and other extreme weather from a mathematical point of view. People may lie, but the numbers never do!" Can't get much more non-exaggerating than that, can one? :-)
Well after the "Official End" of the Season, maybe we can ask Dr. M to consider a blog on it.
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