Otto transitioning to a tropical storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:35 PM GMT op 07 oktober 2010

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Subtropical Storm Otto, the 15th named storm of this very busy 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Otto is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and northern Lesser Antilles. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 2) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen in several locations over the past three days, and the St. Thomas Airport officially recorded 9.30" of rain so far from Otto. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for both the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico today. Martinique radar shows considerably less activity over the Lesser Antilles.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS image of Subtropical Storm Otto taken at 12:55pm EDT October 6, 2010.

Satellite loops show Otto's heaviest thunderstorms lie in two bands to the south, many hundreds of miles from the storm's center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system over Otto has pumped cold, dry air aloft into the storm, keeping it from being fully tropical. However, the upper low is weakening, and Otto has recently developed a burst of heavy thunderstorms near its center, and very tropical storm-like spiral bands are now developing to the east and south of Otto's center. Otto is fast becoming fully tropical, and will be called Tropical Storm Otto later today. The storm's newly developing spiral bands will mostly stay offshore, but a few heavy rain showers capable of dumping 1 - 2 inches of rain may affect the Turks and Caicos Islands today, as well as the northern Dominican Republic. The heavier rains in Otto's old rain band over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will continue to dump flooding rains in those locations through tonight. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday. Given the very warm waters of 28 - 29°C and low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots today, Otto may approach hurricane strength before high wind shear in excess of 20 knots impacts the storm Friday night.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Otto over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen in many regions. The strange ray-like pattern to the east of the radar location (the white "+" symbol) is due to mountains blocking the radar beam.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather has formed in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles west of Jamaica. The disturbance has a moderate area of intense thunderstorms that brought close to two inches of rain to Grand Cayman Island over the past day. The disturbance is under a high 15 - 25 knots of wind shear, and is not likely to develop significantly today. The disturbance is headed south at 10 - 15 mph, and will bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. None of the models develop the disturbance, but it does have some potential for slow development beginning on Friday when it will be off the coast of Nicaragua, in a region of lower wind shear and higher moisture. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday.

Monsoon flooding kills 139 in Asia
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 91 people and left 100 more missing. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 48 people, with 23 people still missing. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains of up to seven inches over the past week have also hit nearby Hainen Island in China. The resulting flooding was the worst in 50 years there, and killed one person and forced the evacuation of 55 villages with 213,000 people.

Press
I've been a subscriber for several years to NewScientist magazine, a weekly science news magazine that does a great job staying abreast of all the latest breaking science happenings. This week's October 4 issue features a 4-page section on Extreme Weather that I wrote for them as part of their "Instant Expert" series. If you haven't ever seen the magazine, I enthusiastically recommend taking a look.

If you're a fan of the geek humor xkcd webcomic, see if you can find me on the hilarious map of the "blogosphere" on comic artist Randall Munroe's latest xkcd comic. I like the disparity between my influence in September vs. March, but thought I should have been closer to the "Bay of Flame!" I also appeared in a mouse "rollover" text box in an xkcd comic during the Gulf oil disaster earlier this year.

Jeff Masters

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712. aspectre
3:09 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
TS.Otto
7Oct 03pmGMT - - 23.8n68.0w - - 60mph - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#6
7Oct 06pmGMT - - 23.7n67.8w - - 50knots - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF *23.6n67.9w
7Oct 09pmGMT - - 24.0n67.6w - - 60mph - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#7
8Oct 12amGMT - - 23.9n67.0w - - 55knots - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF *23.8n67.1w
8Oct 03amGMT - - 24.1n66.6w - - 60mph - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv. #8
8Oct 06amGMT - - 24.4n66.1w - - 60knots - - 989mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09amGMT - - 24.8n65.5w - - 70mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv. #8
8Oct 12pmGMT - - 25.4n64.6w - - 60knots - - 986mb -- NHC-ATCF
H.Otto
8Oct 03pmGMT - - 25.9n64.0w - - 75mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv. #10
50knots=~57.5mph=93.6km/h __ 60mph=~96.6km/h
55knots=~63.3mph=~101.9km/h __ 65mph=~104.6km/h
60knots=~69mph=~111.1km/h __ 70mph=~112.7km/h
75mph =~120.7k/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 23.8n68.0w, 23.7n67.8w, 24.0n67.6w, 23.9n67.0w, 24.1n66.6w-24.4n66.1w, 24.4n66.1w-24.8n65.5w, 24.8n65.5w-25.4n64.6w, 25.4n64.6w-25.9n64.0w, ngd into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
Member Since: 21 augustus 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
711. Neapolitan
2:52 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
.
Member Since: 8 november 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13606
710. Bordonaro
2:52 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
NEW BLOG EVERYONE
Member Since: 25 augustus 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
709. cat5hurricane
2:52 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:

At this rate Otto may become at CAT 2by 11PM EDT tonight, then weaken on Saturday.
If he can continue to fire up cold tops & tighten up his structure a bit more, I can see a run at a very strong Cat 1. Wouldn't rule out Cat 2 either, but timing is going to everything w/ the expected westerly vertical shear after 24 hours.
Member Since: 17 augustus 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
708. Jax82
2:50 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
TGIF
Member Since: 2 september 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
707. Neapolitan
2:49 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
.
Member Since: 8 november 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13606
706. Bordonaro
2:49 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yep, sure did. It's a no doubter they had overwelming evidence to up the intensity of Otto to a Hurricane.

At this rate Otto may become at CAT 2by 11PM EDT tonight, then weaken on Saturday.
Member Since: 25 augustus 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
705. Bordonaro
2:48 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:
As of 11AM, Hurricane Otto's ACE has reached 1.5325. That's not much, to be sure, but it's higher than that racked up by Bonnie, Gaston, Hermine, Matthew, or Nicole...and he'll likely exceed Colin's by 11PM. (Fiona is next after that at 2.94.)

BTW: that's 15-8-5.

Do you have the total Tropical ATL ACE #'s available?
Member Since: 25 augustus 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
704. CyclonicVoyage
2:46 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:
As of 11AM, Hurricane Otto's ACE has reached 1.5325. That's not much, to be sure, but it's higher than that racked up by Bonnie, Gaston, Hermine, Matthew, or Nicole...and he'll likely exceed Colin's by 11PM. (Fiona is next after that at 2.94.)

BTW: that's 15-8-5.


That's one heck of a busted season, lol. And, it's not close to over yet.
Member Since: 30 januari 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
703. cat5hurricane
2:45 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:

He is a Hurricane. Latest 11AM EDT advisory is out early today :O)

HURRICANE OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 08 2010

...OTTO STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...THE EIGHTH OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 64.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. OTTO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$

Yep, sure did. It's a no doubter they had overwelming evidence to up the intensity of Otto to a Hurricane.
Member Since: 17 augustus 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
702. Neapolitan
2:44 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
As of 11AM, Hurricane Otto's ACE has reached 1.5325. That's not much, to be sure, but it's higher than that racked up by Bonnie, Gaston, Hermine, Matthew, or Nicole...and he'll likely exceed Colin's by 11PM. (Fiona is next after that at 2.94.)

BTW: that's 15-8-5.
Member Since: 8 november 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13606
701. reedzone
2:43 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting Relix:
With Otto now a Hurricane, it seems that all forecasts, at least the minimum ones, have been met for this season.


My forecast in May of this year was 15-18 storms, 9 or 10 Hurricanes, and 5 majors.
Member Since: 1 juli 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
700. cat5hurricane
2:42 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Member Since: 17 augustus 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
699. Bordonaro
2:42 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:

He held his own all thru the nite & now looks on the verge of another burst. If not 11am, then I'd say 5pm...

He is a Hurricane. Latest 11AM EDT advisory is out early today :O)

HURRICANE OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 08 2010

...OTTO STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...THE EIGHTH OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 64.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. OTTO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: 25 augustus 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
698. Relix
2:41 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
With Otto now a Hurricane, it seems that all forecasts, at least the minimum ones, have been met for this season.
Member Since: 3 augustus 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
697. cat5hurricane
2:41 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Hurricane Otto makes his appearance

Member Since: 17 augustus 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
696. cat5hurricane
2:39 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:
It will be interesting to see if Otto is upgraded to c CAT 1 hurricane at the 11AM EDT NHC advisory. Otto is looking real healthy this morning!

He held his own all thru the nite & now looks on the verge of another burst. If not 11am, then I'd say 5pm...
Member Since: 17 augustus 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
695. PensacolaDoug
2:39 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:


If we get screwed this winter, i'm blaming you for sure now Doug.....LOL



I'm always guilty of wishcasting deep south snowstorms!
Member Since: 25 juli 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
694. CyclonicVoyage
2:36 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Looks like starting Monday a return to a more seasonable pattern is in store for SFL. Bye Bye dry air :-(



Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Northeast wind between 5 and 11 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind between 6 and 9 mph.

Columbus Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind between 3 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Tuesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind between 6 and 10 mph.
Member Since: 30 januari 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
693. Bordonaro
2:32 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
00
WTNT32 KNHC 081431
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 08 2010

...OTTO STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...THE EIGHTH OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 64.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

My latest blog update on Otto, please stop by and check it out Link
Member Since: 25 augustus 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
692. CyclonicVoyage
2:32 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Member Since: 30 januari 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
691. CyclonicVoyage
2:31 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Morning All.

Otto is far reaching.



AMZ080-081530-
SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT FRI OCT 08 2010

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 22N TO 27N E OF 67W


TODAY
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
150 NM OF CENTER OF OTTO. HIGHEST WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT BEFORE
MOVING E OF AREA. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 150 NM NW QUADRANT. HIGHEST SEAS 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
210 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER
OF AREA E OF 72W WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. W OF 72W N OF 26N N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING
TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 8 FT
LATE. W OF 72W S OF 26N N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO
15 KT LATE. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 TO 10 FT LATE E OF
BAHAMAS 6 TO 8 FT AND 4 TO 6 FT W OF BAHAMAS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS NEAR TROPICAL STORM.

TONIGHT
N OF 25N E OF 70W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT
DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
S OF 25N E OF 70W N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT SW TO W WINDS
10 TO 15 KT S OF 23N E OF 68W. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. W OF
70W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT N OF 27N
LATE. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT W OF BAHAMAS AND 5 TO 8 FT IN PRIMARILY NE
SWELL E OF BAHAMAS EXCEPT SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT N OF 27N W OF
75W LATE.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT
N OF 27N W OF 68W NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF TROUGH N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 7 FT EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT W OF BAHAMAS. S OF TROUGH S TO
SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
SE PART.

SUN THROUGH TUE
N OF 27N NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT BECOMING
VARIABLE WINDS W OF 70W MON AND TUE. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. N OF TROUGH
TO 27N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT W OF BAHAMAS
AND SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT E OF BAHAMAS. S OF TROUGH S TO SE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S
OF 25N.

$$
Member Since: 30 januari 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
690. weatherguy03
2:31 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Tropical Update Oct. 8th. 2010
Member Since: 5 juli 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29707
689. Bordonaro
2:30 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
It will be interesting to see if Otto is upgraded to c CAT 1 hurricane at the 11AM EDT NHC advisory. Otto is looking real healthy this morning!
Member Since: 25 augustus 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
688. TampaSpin
2:28 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Nice catch there! Wish I was out there now instead of stuck at work. At least our week end will be nice


Check these out! The Red Bulls was too big to keep.




Member Since: 2 september 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
687. FtMyersgal
2:16 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:


Now you gotta keep in mind that is just surface temps. A few feet down its still steaming!


Yes, agree. A few feet makes the difference. But still, it shows what a week of cooler temps can do. I think there is still plenty of heat in the GOM.
Member Since: 16 september 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
686. cat5hurricane
2:16 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:


Now you gotta keep in mind that is just surface temps. A few feet down its still steaming!
Oh for sure. Nice fish you caught btw!
Member Since: 17 augustus 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
685. TampaSpin
2:15 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



File this one under the "be careful what u wish for" heading!


If we get screwed this winter, i'm blaming you for sure now Doug.....LOL
Member Since: 2 september 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
684. beell
2:13 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
@120 hrs.



GFS 200 - 850mb Zonal Shear


Member Since: 11 september 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16876
683. FtMyersgal
2:13 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:


Its dropped 10deg! I was just out there and the fishies are very frisky now! This is one of the smaller ones.



Nice catch there! Wish I was out there now instead of stuck at work. At least our week end will be nice
Member Since: 16 september 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
682. TampaSpin
2:12 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Wow...those really plummeted.


Now you gotta keep in mind that is just surface temps. A few feet down its still steaming!
Member Since: 2 september 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
681. Neapolitan
2:11 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting beell:
Psst, Nea...
Take a look at this when you get a chance. It's called a "water vapor loop".


You should widen your view; larger loops clearly show the dry that's been hanging around slowly being pushed away, and most all weekly or 10-day forecasts for the southeast show a wetter--and more seasonal--pattern coming back.
Member Since: 8 november 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13606
680. PensacolaDoug
2:11 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


Oh oh.. someone mark and save this one.. he may regret it



File this one under the "be careful what u wish for" heading!
Member Since: 25 juli 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
679. Jax82
2:10 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
In NEFL, we only get a 10% next Mon and 20% next Tues. Temps do warm a little. I dont think we'll see rain for at least 5 days.

Member Since: 2 september 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
678. cat5hurricane
2:09 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Gulf waters off the coast of Ft Myers are currently 79 F. A Week ago they were in the high 80's
Wow...those really plummeted.
Member Since: 17 augustus 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
677. TampaSpin
2:08 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Gulf waters off the coast of Ft Myers are currently 79 F. A Week ago they were in the high 80's


Its dropped 10deg! I was just out there and the fishies are very frisky now! This is one of the smaller ones.

Member Since: 2 september 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
676. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:07 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting beell:
Psst, Nea...
Take a look at this when you get a chance. It's called a "water vapor loop".

Link
don't show him that your gonna tell him everything

j/k
Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
675. FtMyersgal
2:03 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Gulf waters off the coast of Ft Myers are currently 79 F. A Week ago they were in the high 80's
Member Since: 16 september 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
674. beell
2:01 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Psst, Nea...
Take a look at this when you get a chance. It's called a "water vapor loop".

Link
Member Since: 11 september 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16876
673. Neapolitan
2:00 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting IKE:


Because you're wrong with what you said...."The dryness here at the southern tip of Florida is--very thankfully--ending soon. Humidity levels and rain chances are finally forecast to return to normal (and even above normal) by Sunday as that nasty arid airmass vacates to the east.".....

Where is there a rain chance by Sunday? Or above normal?




My bad; the NWS updated the local Naples forecast at 9:31, while I was writing the comment. Here are the salient parts of the revised forecast:

Today: sunny; 86/67; 0% precip; 53% RH
Saturday: sunny; 87/67; 0%; 59%
Sunday: mostly sunny; 87/68; 0%; 64%
Monday: mostly sunny; 87/69; 0%; 64%
Tuesday: partly cloudy; 86/69; 30%; 71%
Wednesday: partly cloudy; 85/69; 20%; 77%
Thursday: mostly sunny; 85/69; 30%; 73%
Friday: scattered t-storms; 83/68; 60%; 68%
Saturday: scattered t-storms; 84/69; 40%; 68%

So, again: temps trending upward until the clouds come in (and not down as the calendar would dictate), cloud coverage increasing, rain chances increasing, relative humidity increasing. To put it another way, more summer-like next week than it is now. Which was my original point: it's far too early to say winter's set in and the season is over...at least here in South Florida.
Member Since: 8 november 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13606
672. cat5hurricane
1:59 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
72 hours out - night and day difference between GOM & Caribbean vertical shear forecast...

Member Since: 17 augustus 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
671. Orcasystems
1:58 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Yes I was. So this year I'm putting in my order early for a repeat of Feb 1899!!


Oh oh.. someone mark and save this one.. he may regret it
Member Since: 1 oktober 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
670. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:57 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Yes I was. So this year I'm putting in my order early for a repeat of Feb 1899!!
snow in miami and ice skating on the northern gulf well that might take a super volcano for that
Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
669. hurricanejunky
1:56 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting stillwaiting:
.......i know in srq we had a few days w/highs in the low-mid 40's,one morning it was 34* and raining here on siesta key!!!!,so close to snow!!!!,i think their was a little sleet mixed in down here but no snow,it was pretty cool to see the white on my local radar just north of tpa.......our high that day was. in the upper 30's i believe....


Yeah, we had an unprecedented number of days with highs in the 40's and 50's here in Fort Myers. We had one day where it didn't get out of the thirties...maybe the same day you're reffering to...our high was 38 and rainy all day!! I've never seen that before! Highs in the 30's?!?!? Crazy! Too bad it's not another El Nino winter...the wet winter was our saving grace last season for fires...this season maybe not so much...
Member Since: 28 augustus 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
668. PensacolaDoug
1:54 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


KOG, PDoug was unhappy with your attempt at snow last year.


Yes I was. So this year I'm putting in my order early for a repeat of Feb 1899!!
Member Since: 25 juli 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
667. BobinTampa
1:52 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
the models I looked at had zero rainfall in Florida in the next 5 days at least. I think GFS had zero rain for 180 hrs.
Member Since: 14 augustus 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
666. cat5hurricane
1:51 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
OTTO to run the gap on shear map
Just gonna slither right on through.
Member Since: 17 augustus 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
665. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:50 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


KOG, PDoug was unhappy with your attempt at snow last year.
snow how much would make him happy the last time i tried that i turned it into a ice rink down there was that happy enough or do you want to be happier
Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
664. kimoskee
1:49 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Dry as a bone down here tho!


How many buckets of rainwater would you like me to send? We have an over abundance here in Jamaica. Couple months ago we were rationing water, now we're flooding. What happened to moderation? Not too much, not too little. :-)
Member Since: 17 augustus 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
663. cat5hurricane
1:48 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting hydrus:
This is interesting....Link

That was. One of the few models that are really doing that.

Something to watch though...
Member Since: 17 augustus 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
662. IKE
1:48 PM GMT op 08 oktober 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:


What has you confused enough to use a full six question marks? :-)

Seriously, did you not notice the general trend toward warmer daytime highs and nightime lows? The general trend away from "sunny" and "clear" toward "partly cloudy" and "mostly sunny"? The general trend towards chances of rain, which, even though slight--10%, 20%--are infinitely higher than the near 0% we've seen over the past week? The general trend away from winds with a northerly component and toward those with a southerly, easterly, or westerly component?

My point was simply that the dry and cool is going away. it'll be back...just not in the next week.


Because you're wrong with what you said...."The dryness here at the southern tip of Florida is--very thankfully--ending soon. Humidity levels and rain chances are finally forecast to return to normal (and even above normal) by Sunday as that nasty arid airmass vacates to the east.".....

Where is there a rain chance by Sunday? Or above normal?


Member Since: 9 juni 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.