Hermine drenching Texas; Gaston's remains less organized
Tropical Storm Hermine hit the Mexican coast 40 miles south of the Texas border at 9:30 pm EDT last night, with 60 mph sustained winds. Top winds observed in Texas from the storm were 50 mph with gusts to 59 mph at Port Isabel near the Mexican border, and winds at Brownsville hit 45 mph, gusting to 69 mph. Harlingen had the highest gust observed from Hermine, 72 mph, and local storm reports indicate that half of the city lost power and a roof caved in on an apartment complex, with no injuries. Heavy rains have fallen along a 30-mile wide stretch of the Mexican and Texas coast, with 1.41" reported thus far in Harlingen, 3.71" at Brownsville, and 2.00" at Corpus Christi. Radar estimated rainfall amounts (Figure 3) exceed four inches along most of the Lower Texas coast, with maximum amounts near eleven inches twenty miles north of Brownsville.
Figure 1. Radar image of Hermine at landfall.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hermine at 12:45pm EDT Monday September 6, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Hermine became a tropical depression at 11pm Sunday night, and intensified into a 65 mph tropical storm in just 21 hours, an extremely fast intensification rate. It turns out that the southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Hermine formed, is prone to these sort of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. This region produced two similar rapidly intensifying storms in 2007, Humberto and Lorenzo. Since 6-hourly position records of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). The curvature and topography of the land surrounding the Bay of Campeche help induce a counter-clockwise spin to the air over the region, which helps get tropical storms spinning up unusually quickly. Helping the spin-up process yesterday for Hermine were the very warm 30°C waters, low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and moist atmosphere.
Figure 3. Morning radar-estimated rainfall for Hermine.
Forecast for Hermine
Heavy rain and isolated tornadoes will continue across southern and central Texas today and tomorrow. Hermine is expected to accelerate northward today, limiting the potential for damaging floods along its future path. The storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.
Gaston's remains less organized
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico. Morning visible satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains no longer have a well-defined surface circulation, though there is still some spin. Latest radar out of Martinique and Puerto Rico show a few heavy rain showers moving through the islands, but no organization to the showers. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. None of the computer models show Gaston redeveloping, and NHC has downgraded the odds of development to 10%. I think the odds should be higher than this, perhaps 30%. Gaston's remains will be disrupted some on Wednesday, when they will encounter the high terrain of Hispaniola.
Elsewhere in the tropics
There are two tropical waves off the coast of Africa that NHC is giving a 10% chances of developing into tropical depressions by Thursday. The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development of one or more tropical waves off the coast of Africa 3 - 7 days from now. The next storm will be called Igor.
Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression 11E kills 44 in Guatemala
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E killed at least 44 people in Guatemala over the weekend. At least 56 are injured, and 16 missing. The heavy rains triggered fifteen landslides that hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage.
Figure 4. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.
"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.
Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
Next post
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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G'morning, StormW!
Ah I see what you mean. And good morning. :) I'm not sure where he's headed though. The low level steering looks to be west but I could be wrong. (Going by the HDWL thing on the satellite.)
I need to start drinking! I'm a quart behind
StormW has a weather blog if you have not been over there and you will learn if you read and study the information he gives you!! He breaks it down so us wannabees can understand it!!
There really isn’t much to talk about with the remnants of Gaston, which is located about 150 miles south of Hispaniola this morning. Development is no longer expected from this system and this will be the last discussion issued on Gaston unless regeneration occurs, which is not expected.
Mornin Chief!!
...and climbing. That's simply incredible.
Hmmm? Those don't look quite right. Or I could be wrong where I think it is. :)
Good reds.
It also shows 2 storms in the eastern ATL that may follow the other favored track in 2010...from the extreme northern islands and points NW through north of there....
And he seems like he'd take advantage of any favorable conditions he could find. I don't think I've ever seen one fight this hard. :)
x2.. for sure
NAM attempts to organize the large moisture in this region with associated mid level VORT while GFS delays this and attempts to organize it at a later period across the W ATL.
Currently weak in nature, but due to the high heat content in the Carib. won't be surprised if something does organize.
EDIT: Forgot to mention NOGAPS is also hinting at this possibility.
Yes, I've been reading it daily. That's why I posted the question, trying to begin to take what I've tried to soak up and see if I am getting it correct. Thanks!
Oh ok thanks. I'm never sure which level to use on what storm. :)
Yep and entering some waters with extremely high TCHP and on infrared easy to see low level spinning. I wouldn't disregard it yet
Good morning Storm. :)
Sorry - there it is, but dissipating. (need more coffee)! ;)
thanks that's how we get with the long winters up here
Just on for a few minutes..
DFW AP has received 2.43" of rain, many parts of the area have received between 3-6" of rain overnight. Parts of Tarrant county have had reports of up to 8" of rain. A tornado was spotted over Benbrook Lake earlier this morning..Winds at 6AM CDT were SE at 26MPH G 38 MPH..Tarrant and Dallas counties are under Flash Flood Warnings..We are in the "train"..Looks like a few more hours of heavy rain before things quiet down..
91L soon to be Igor looks to be a Danielle type storm?
Another apt analogy. :)
my word...thats horrible
The chart.....
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
241 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTRY THROUGH 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...
...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR AS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES FEED A TRAINING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE I35 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS MORNING OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH TOTALS OF 6
INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED ESTIMATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 TO 15
INCHES SO FAR. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR GENERALLY
NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
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