Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting kmanislander:


Come Oct. and Nov. we then have the cold fronts to worry about as several major hurricanes have spun up from lows on the tail end of these.

That is true....and I've often wondered what we may see at the back end of this year given that it's a La Nina, and with SSTs abnormally warm, cold surges into the United States could cause big problems in the Caribbean late in the year.

The TCHP across the Caribbean sea continues to increase due to several factors.

1) No tropical cyclone has passed through any part of the Caribbean sea since late June.
2) The NAO has been negative since early August. A negative NAO usually leads to weaker trade winds which in turn causes less upwelling.
3) Cloud cover has been minimal thus allowing for even more heating of the ocean surface and deeper depths.


Figure 1. Notice the very, very large pool of 100 kJ cm-2. Also notice the increasing pool 150 kJ cm-2 in the southwestern Caribbean sea.

If environmental conditions are absolutely perfect, a stationary tropical depression could become a category 5 major hurricane in the pool of 120 kJ cm-2 waters in less than 48 hours.

Did anyone say "OUCH!", because I sure did!

Updated AVN. See the "reds" reappearing ?

Back later. Have a few errends to run

Quoting Levi32:


That is true....and I've often wondered what we may see at the back end of this year given that it's a La Nina, and with SSTs abnormally warm, cold surges into the United States could cause big problems in the Caribbean late in the year.

Hi Levi, very true. Have to run now but will chat later.

Levi, look at #1258

Quoting Levi32:


That is true....and I've often wondered what we may see at the back end of this year given that it's a La Nina, and with SSTs abnormally warm, cold surges into the United States could cause big problems in the Caribbean late in the year.

Levi don't look now but I see an area of low pressure about to exit the coast at a low lattitude over africa.Do you think that systems of that lattitude could still recurve?

Levi---do you have a forecast for Gaston?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The TCHP across the Caribbean sea continues to increase due to several factors.

1) No tropical cyclone has passed through any part of the Caribbean sea since late June.
2) The NAO has been negative since earl August. A negative NAO usually leads to weaker trade winds which in turn causes less upwelling.
3) Cloud cover has been minimal thus allowing for even more heating of the ocean surface and deeper depths.


Figure 1. Notice the very, very large pool of 100 kJ cm-2. Also notice the increasing pool 150 kJ cm-2 in the southwestern Caribbean sea.

If environmental conditions are absolutely perfect, a stationary tropical depression could become a category 5 major hurricane in the pool of 120 kJ cm-2 waters in less than 48 hours.

Did anyone say "OUCH!", because I sure did!

Ican here the jaws music getting louder,and louder.If Gaston decides to visit that side of the carribean,and conditions are perfect....well that's just not painting a pretty picture in m head.That could support a 190mph hurricane......but who knows...

Quoting kmanislander:
Updated AVN. See the "reds" reappearing ?

Back later. Have a few errends to run

I can tell just by the sat pic you posted that Gaston is going to get organized rather quickly after leaving the dry air.

Im glad Earl passed pretty much uneventfully through the area. Now lets all hope Gaston does the same. I look back on my experienc during Katrina and I like most on here find these storms fascinating and beautiful. I've actually read alot of posts from people that actually would like to experience a big storm. I'm sure there's plenty of people that post here that can assure you that you dont want any part of one of these storms. Even a cat 1!! It will change your life in was's that cant be easily explained. Lets all enjoy Gaston from a distance and pray it doesn't come close to anyone.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Levi, look at #1258

It's possible, but it will have to last a while to give any significant effect. Wakes often take a long time to "heal" though so it may be the case. Interesting to say the least.

Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
Levi---do you have a forecast for Gaston?

Slow development, if any, for the next few days. There's too much dry air and subsidence around in the central Atlantic. The track should be predominantly west, towards the northern Caribbean, and the islands could get some rainfall out of this down the road. The track after that is uncertain, but if Gaston survives, he could easily threaten land. We'll have to see how he's looking when he reaches the Caribbean to determine whether he will develop, but right now conditions do not favor much progress.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The TCHP across the Caribbean sea continues to increase due to several factors.

1) No tropical cyclone has passed through any part of the Caribbean sea since late June.
2) The NAO has been negative since earl August. A negative NAO usually leads to weaker trade winds which in turn causes less upwelling.
3) Cloud cover has been minimal thus allowing for even more heating of the ocean surface and deeper depths.


Figure 1. Notice the very, very large pool of 100 kJ cm-2. Also notice the increasing pool 150 kJ cm-2 in the southwestern Caribbean sea.

If environmental conditions are absolutely perfect, a stationary tropical depression could become a category 5 major hurricane in the pool of 120 kJ cm-2 waters in less than 48 hours.

Did anyone say "OUCH!", because I sure did!

This will be scary! (gonna borrow - thanks!)

Levi, what is your thought on this?

Quoting washingtonian115:
Levi don't look now but I see an area of low pressure about to exit the coast at a low lattitude over africa.Do you think that systems of that lattitude could still recurve?

Of course they can, but obviously systems that come off Africa at a lower latitude have a smaller probability of recurving. Eventually one of these Cape Verde systems will make it all the way across. Gaston could be the one if he survives, but there are plenty more coming behind him as well.

Good Lunch-Time, all.
A little rain is falling, which is nice. It was as hot as Hades this morning.
Gaston seems to be Ominous, to me.
But I still think that he will chug a bit more north, and end up just north of the Islands.
If he gets into the Carib Sea, Bad Stuff will occur.

Thanks Levi---I sure miss your "Tropical Tidbits". Hope you are enjoying your college experience.

1-2-3

12z GFS


174 hours out

Quoting Levi32:
The Bay of Campeche seems mostly unlikely to see any development over the next 3 days. The thunderstorms are being generated by TD 11E, which has moved inland over the middle of Mexico from the eastern Pacific. Its circulation can be seen clearly on visible. The flow would support a northwest movement which would keep the depression mostly over Mexico, and although the center may get pretty close to the coast or even skirt the water, I doubt it will be able to develop.

However, what should be watched for is a dissipation of the main center and a reformation to the north over the Bay of Campeche, which is certainly possible, in which case it would be a different story as upper winds are quite favorable. But for now, if TD 11E's center remains intact, I don't think it's too big of a problem.

I usually agree with you, but here I will not

the NHC has not mentioned once that TD 11-E and the area in the BOC are linked and the area in the BOC showed up on the TWO last night before TD 11-E even made landfall

I think the area of disturbed weather is not from TD 11-E, but that the former TD could help aid in development

Models have been latching on, so I see no reason why we could not see some slow development

Quoting TexasHurricane:
Levi, what is your thought on this?

Quoting TexasHurricane:
Levi, what is your thought on this?

I posted about it on the last page:

"The Bay of Campeche seems mostly unlikely to see any development over the next 3 days. The thunderstorms are being generated by TD 11E, which has moved inland over the middle of Mexico from the eastern Pacific. Its circulation can be seen clearly on visible. The flow would support a northwest movement which would keep the depression mostly over Mexico, and although the center may get pretty close to the coast or even skirt the water, I doubt it will be able to develop.

However, what should be watched for is a dissipation of the main center and a reformation to the north over the Bay of Campeche, which is certainly possible, in which case it would be a different story as upper winds are quite favorable. But for now, if TD 11E's center remains intact, I don't think it's too big of a problem."

Convection continues to fire over the westward quadrant. I gotta say, ex-Gaston is a pretty cute lil' guy (LOL)...too bad he won't stay that way if he makes it into the Caribbean.

Great thoughts Levi and Kman, always interested to see what you guys have to say. On the SAL product, the dry air layer is diminishing near Gaston which should favor a more steady intensification sooner, rather than later. So right now I think the NHC should keep the 70% chance going, given that he has a well defined low level circulation and shear is subsiding.

Aww, look how cute Gaston is. xD

Quoting DestinJeff:
This is the week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!





We are soooooo all doom.

If I lived on the Yucatan Peninsula or western Cuba, I would watch the tropics closely.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
1-2-3

12z GFS


174 hours out

192 hours:

Quoting Hurricanes101:


I usually agree with you, but here I will not

the NHC has not mentioned once that TD 11-E and the area in the BOC are linked and the area in the BOC showed up on the TWO last night before TD 11-E even made landfall

I think the area of disturbed weather is not from TD 11-E, but that the former TD could help aid in development

Models have been latching on, so I see no reason why we could not see some slow development

I was puzzled as well why the NHC did not mention TD 11E in the TWO, but looking at visible loops of the area I see a pretty large circulation area associated with TD 11E and it extends into the southern BOC quite easily. I don't see two separate entities at all.

An ASCAT pass will shortly be available but CIMSS 850mb vorticity shows the concentration of spin over Mexico in association with TD 11E, with some vorticity over the southern BOC extending northward from that, clearly having some relation with TD 11E.

The rapid-scan product doesn't even have any vorticity extending into the BOC.

Quoting winter123:
What do you know, lake effect rain up by Watertown. I commented yesterday how it reminded me of a frontal system you'd see in november and I guess I was right.

Totally...same here in Cleveland...it's chilly here today and lake effect clouds!!!

any thoughts on Gaston and where he may end up hopefully not southeast florida but was just wondering on anyones thoughts!!

A happy ending for JFV. We got Hurricane Gaston making landfall over Miami. LOL.

240 hours:

Levi, upon reading many of your posts over the last several days I am greatly disappointed that so many people place their faith in your forecasts. I for one do believe that Ex-Guston will if fact evolve into a formidable tropical cyclone and has the potential to affect multiple land masses. Your reasoning makes no sense and gives folks a false sense of security.

The 12z GFS racap:

Gaston: Turns into a hurricane. Passes over the northern Lesser Antilles. Then goes just north of Hispañiola and Cuba. Then makes landfall over south Florida. Makes a second landfall over the Florida panhandle.

Hermine: Develops in the BOC and tracks over Mexico.

Igor: Develops into a major hurricane and does a track very similar to Earl.

Julia: Becomes a hurricane; stays out to sea the entire run.

Karl: Becomes a weak tropical storm and then dissipates.

Lisa: Becomes a weak tropical storm at the end of the run.

The GFS is scary huh?

miamihurricane is that what i am seeing gaston if it makes it possibly hitting miami just a little concerned me living in dania beach just north of miami

Quoting 1fromnovasscotia:
some large branches and some tress are beginning to fall in halifax and dartmouth nova scotia now were beginning to reach our peak here in the city.

Thanks for keeping us informed on Earl in NS. Hope ya'll are safe and get your power back soon

i guess everyone is gone.....

Quoting Levi32:


Sorry, good morning, lol.

Just to let you know, anybody learning in here, your tropical tidbits are the best!! Explained things well enough that as unversed as I am, can understand.

Oh, and good morning, afternoon or evening-depending on where you are

Quoting reedzonemyhero:
Levi, upon reading many of your posts over the last several days I am greatly disappointed that so many people place their faith in your forecasts. I for one do believe that Ex-Guston will if fact evolve into a formidable tropical cyclone and has the potential to affect multiple land masses. Your reasoning makes no sense and gives folks a false sense of security.

You know what why don't u put your money where your mouth is. What do you come up with or have to say, uh nothing, but poor mouth the good folks on this blog. At least Levi and Storm and a few others actually take there time and sit and analyze the models,SST,The highs and all that stuff to give us a ideal of what could happen, no one has written it in stone. Plus you don't have to read it, no one is making you.
sheri

Quoting reedzonemyhero:
Levi, upon reading many of your posts over the last several days I am greatly disappointed that so many people place their faith in your forecasts. I for one do believe that Ex-Guston will if fact evolve into a formidable tropical cyclone and has the potential to affect multiple land masses. Your reasoning makes no sense and gives folks a false sense of security.

First of all as an Emergency Manager I dont "put faith" in any particular individual or agency forecast. I base decisions based upon all available data from a multitude of sources. I for one read the reasoning of those like LEVI, STORM W, Etc. And while I may not always agree with them 100% I find their reasoning to be sound and informed. In a nutshell, NO FORECAST IS SET IN STONE...First rule of EM, expect the unexpected... I appreciate the contributions made by many of those here in the WU. Most of the time I lurk in silence, I just can't stand by and watch one of these folks get bashed...