Alex is gone; the tropics are relatively quiet
Hurricane Alex is gone, killed by the high mountains of northern Mexico. Alex's rains linger on, and will continue to cause flooding problems in northern Mexico today. Alex killed at least 24 people in its week-long traverse of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. One death occurred in the Dominican Republic, and fourteen were killed in Central America. In Mexico, the outer rainbands of the storm killed three in Acapulco, one person in Oaxaca, and one person in Chiapas. Following its final landfall, Alex caused at least eight deaths in Nuevo León, with three persons reported missing. It is possible Alex will have its named retired, though I think it unlikely. One of the countries substantially affected by a hurricane must make a request to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to have the hurricane's name required. Mexico was the country most affected by Alex, and Mexico has been reluctant to make retirement requests in the past. For example, Mexico suffered two landfalls from Category 5 Hurricane Emily in 2005, yet did not request that Emily's name be retired; there will be a new storm named Emily next year.
I hope Alex will give the officials in charge of the BP oil disaster a bit of a wake up call. We've been told that five days are required to shut down operations in the event of tropical storm force winds are forecast for the clean-up region. It is very unrealistic to expect a five day warning, since the average track error in a 5-day forecast is about 300 miles. Furthermore, we have little skill forecasting the formation of tropical storms, and it is often the case that a tropical storm forms just a 1-day journey from the Deepwater Horizon blowout location. If we examine the incidence of tropical storm force winds in that region over the past five years, I suspect that they were successfully predicted five days in advance perhaps 30% of the time.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Alex at landfall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.
The tropics are relatively quiet
A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. Some of the models give support for an area of weak low pressure to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico along this front. NHC is giving a 10% chance of a tropical depression forming by 8am Sunday over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model is also indicating development may occur by the middle of next week along the portion of the front offshore from South Carolina. There is also some suggestion by several models that a strong tropical disturbance may form by the middle of next week in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, or in the Western Caribbean. At this point, none of these possibilities are worthy of significant concern, though we'll keep to keep an eye on them.
I'll have an update Saturday afternoon. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!
Jeff Masters
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Yup that too.
Yes, they are. The NWS Area Forecast Discussion out of Dallas-Ft Worth, TX even mentioned it earlier this morning. Area Forecast Discussions out of Brownsville, TX & Houston, TX mention the tropical wave, i.e. inverted trough, but mention NOTHING about development!
Brown grass? I'm having to cut my grass every 2 days over here in Clearwater, seems like we can't go any longer then 12 hours without a torrential downpour, Ive had over 7 inches of rain since monday!
(not defending the original comment...)
Yeah, the CMC spins up 3.
Yes, CMC seems to be hinting at the merger of two systems over the Gulf Stream from Fujiwara and a landfall possibly near NYC.
cmc goes back and forth to fla u judge lol
Link
Definitely something to keep an eye out for. Looks like it would form from the same boundary that spawned 95L.
You have a link to that so I can see it bigger? Thanks
They would have to use more than one data point to get proxy data, as there is more than one ocean.
hmmmm ok. Thanks
Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, June 3rd, with Video
Then at 84 hours has a small low east of Florida...
The 12Z NOGAPS takes a vorticity w/95L in around SE LA...and takes a stronger vorticity east of Florida...WNW...crossing north Florida.
It does kinda look like it is trying to get a spin to it - or is it just me?
Ahh two systems dancing the Fujiwara, that would be a sight to see. But probably the most likely storm would be the BOC system, since the EMCWF picks it up as well. I better save this image... as I suspect if one of these systems does occur the EMCWF will take full credit, when really the CMC was verifying as well..
What's that near the Yucatan?
thats the interesting bugger to watch.
Yes. Yesterday it had no spin at all. It looks better than it did this morning.
disagree, 95L doesn't look as if it will be a threat to organise tropically. Gulf coast should monitor it's progress and any effects on the spill...
Next week that tropical wave moving into the BOC may develop into a TS or worse, just my opinion.
95L has always had good Vorticity since it was over The Fla Panhandle..yesterday
Central Caribbean wave. I think it's too strong with it. Maybe I'm wrong.
Link
Upper level winds are still unfavorable for development, but are slowing down.
Perhaps even more notable is the decreasing shear in the Caribbean for the possible Caribbean system.
Has nice convection with it, and will be moving in a favorable environment.
Yes. I think that it will be acknowledged in the next TWO by the NHC.
Convection has been firing on the right side of the Circ all morning..
GULF OF MEXICO...
PREFERENCE: 00Z UKMET
THE 12Z NAM IS INITIALLY ON THE FASTER END OF THE MDL SPECTRUM
WITH THE WWD MOTION OF THIS SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE 00Z UKMET IS ONLY A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE NAM...WITH THE 12Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST. HOWEVER...BY 36 HRS AND BEYOND THE
NAM BEGINS STRENGTHENING THE LOW TO A DEGREE THAT IT SLOWS DOWN
AND MAKES THE 00Z UKMET THE FASTEST. BY DAY 2/3...THE 00Z
ECMWF/12Z NAM SOLNS BECOME THE SLOWEST AND ALSO THE FARTHEST NORTH
WITH A LOW STAMP JUST SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. THE 12Z
GFS DOES ACCELERATE ITS WAVE...BUT MAY BE A TAD TOO FAR NORTH BY
DAY 3. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...MOST OF THE MDLS MAY
ALREADY BE TOO SLOW...AND SO WILL PREFER THE FASTER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE SRLY LOW TRACK OF THE UKMET...WHICH WILL FURTHER CREDIT THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW TO MID LVL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THIS SYS.
Emily 2005 (cat. 3):
Rita 2005 (cat. 3):
Dolly 2008 (strong cat. 1):
Ike 2008 (cat. 2):
Alex 2010 (cat. 2?):
Hmm...notice anything?
yup
You inlanders & Palm Bay Are hoggin it all! Melbourne & Beachside have dried up..
FLDewey~ I miss those days too. They seem to be gone since Melbourne & points just North was asphalted over. It's like we get the constant east wind which splits North & South somewhere around Lake Washington/St Johns & comes back to collide & pour over Palm Bay/Malabar & Mims.
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 03/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 03/1700Z
D. 28.5N 86.5W
E. 03/1730Z TO 03/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 04/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 04/0445Z
D. 28.0N 87.0W
E. 04/0515Z TO 04/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 04/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
looks like there going out today
link please.
They canceled it.
A real tropical Gully Washer in Uptown Nola right now.
Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, July 3rd, with Video
Thanks MH09.
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