Alex is gone; the tropics are relatively quiet
Hurricane Alex is gone, killed by the high mountains of northern Mexico. Alex's rains linger on, and will continue to cause flooding problems in northern Mexico today. Alex killed at least 24 people in its week-long traverse of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. One death occurred in the Dominican Republic, and fourteen were killed in Central America. In Mexico, the outer rainbands of the storm killed three in Acapulco, one person in Oaxaca, and one person in Chiapas. Following its final landfall, Alex caused at least eight deaths in Nuevo León, with three persons reported missing. It is possible Alex will have its named retired, though I think it unlikely. One of the countries substantially affected by a hurricane must make a request to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to have the hurricane's name required. Mexico was the country most affected by Alex, and Mexico has been reluctant to make retirement requests in the past. For example, Mexico suffered two landfalls from Category 5 Hurricane Emily in 2005, yet did not request that Emily's name be retired; there will be a new storm named Emily next year.
I hope Alex will give the officials in charge of the BP oil disaster a bit of a wake up call. We've been told that five days are required to shut down operations in the event of tropical storm force winds are forecast for the clean-up region. It is very unrealistic to expect a five day warning, since the average track error in a 5-day forecast is about 300 miles. Furthermore, we have little skill forecasting the formation of tropical storms, and it is often the case that a tropical storm forms just a 1-day journey from the Deepwater Horizon blowout location. If we examine the incidence of tropical storm force winds in that region over the past five years, I suspect that they were successfully predicted five days in advance perhaps 30% of the time.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Alex at landfall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.
The tropics are relatively quiet
A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. Some of the models give support for an area of weak low pressure to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico along this front. NHC is giving a 10% chance of a tropical depression forming by 8am Sunday over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model is also indicating development may occur by the middle of next week along the portion of the front offshore from South Carolina. There is also some suggestion by several models that a strong tropical disturbance may form by the middle of next week in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, or in the Western Caribbean. At this point, none of these possibilities are worthy of significant concern, though we'll keep to keep an eye on them.
I'll have an update Saturday afternoon. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Tazmanian: Taking pictures of stoplights. I'm not kidding just take a look at his blog, he took like 30 pictures of stoplights.
Levi32: Working.
Drakoen: Working.
Weather456: Working.
so what i take what evere pohots i like
95L has a %50 ch of becomeing a name storm
90L
As I discussed on my blog entry last Friday, the disturbance in the western Caribbean looked poised to develop. Our thinking was that it would eventually strike northeastern Mexico, possibly as a hurricane, on Wednesday evening, June 30th. When I compared our initial 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression One (which became Hurricane Alex), our 5-day track point just offshore of northeast Mexico at 6pm Wednesday, June 30th was off by only 12 miles! I’d say that forecast was extraordinary. But now the bar is raised quite high for the other 17 named storms we’ve predicted for 2010. Unfortunately, we may have our next opportunity to forecast a developing storm by the end of next week.
Over the last 3-4 model runs (which come in every 6 hours), several models are predicting that a storm will develop in the western Caribbean Sea around July 8-9. First it was the American GFS model, then the Canadian, and now the European model is predicting the same thing. All the models seem to be keying on a very strong tropical wave located in the central Tropical Atlantic that we’ve identified as “Disturbance 17″. We’ve been following this wave since it moved off the west coast of Africa 3-4 days ago. Although it’s presently lacking in any organized thunderstorms, it contains a tremendous amount of moisture and we can see evidence of rotation in the mid levels of the atmosphere. In fact, it looks very much like the disturbance which produced Alex did about two weeks ago. This tropical wave should be reaching the western Caribbean Sea around the date that the models are predicting development late next week.
A check of the current wind shear situation across the Western Atlantic reveals some quite strong winds aloft across the Gulf and northwest Caribbean (below). Much of that wind shear is due to the clockwise outflow from Alex over northeastern Mexico.
Unfortunately, the upper-level wind pattern is constantly changing out across the tropics. The image below is the latest model projection for July 9th, a little over a week from now. That’s quite a change, but not too abnormal for July. Typically, as the season progresses from June into July, wind shear across the tropics decreases significantly.
So, at least three models are now in agreement that there may be an elevated risk of tropical development in the northwest Caribbean or the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late next week. The next question to ask is where might such a developing storm track? The same models that are predicting development also provide guidance as to the steering currents that will be in place next week. As of today, indications are that the strong area of high pressure across the central U.S. which helped steer Alex westward into Mexico may not be present next week. That would mean a more northward track toward the northern Gulf Coast would be a good possibility. That’s something we certainly don’t want to see for a number of reasons. But any possible impact across the northern Gulf of Mexico is still a good a good 9-10 days away. Development is by no means certain, but it’s something we’ll be watching for very closely through the holiday weekend
Chris Hebert
by
Allison or Arlene?
Roll
So it just recycles itself everytime?
Actually, when you see the Australia 60 Minutes News report that BP jammed, or watch some of the many credible videos on youtube (there are some goofy ones, but hunt around and you will find very credible professionals commenting), it is clear that BP was not only reckless, but they are doing what they can to keep the facts covered up, leaving millions of people at risk for serious health issues.
They have also effectively shut off real media coverage in the US.
With corporate activity like this, who needs Al Queda?
Someone call the terrorists and tell them they can take the decade off.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE...IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
70 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
yup
To be honest I couldn't remember myself , as far as I can recall Allison was the only tropical storm whose name was retired but I can't remember which year.
Not surprised. 95L is an sick looking system.
1090. Baltimorebirds, Thanks I couldn't remember.
showers are within 150 nm N of the frontal boundary with
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms within 150 nm S of the
axis. Stronger showers/thunderstorms are also moving inland
across the Texas coastline. These showers may be enhanced by 20
kt se winds across the wrn Gulf converging along the Texas
coastline. 20 kt cyclonic winds are also near the low pressure
center in the far nern Gulf. While this frontal low is
baroclinic in nature...it is being monitored for any signs of
tropical or subtropical development. The low is forecast to
drift wwd over the next couple of days. Aloft...an upper level
ridge covers the basin centered over srn Texas near
29n98w.
Expect showers/thunderstorms to continue across much of the area
influenced by the frontal boundary and tropical moisture
advecting toward Florida from the se.
I agree. It kinda has that feeling. The real question is - where do the systems go? Are we looking at 2007 (Alex has already followed that path) or 2004 with FL and the Northern GOM in the danger zone?
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