First tropical depression of the season may form from 92L
An unusually large and well-developed African tropical wave for so early in the season has developed midway between the coast of Africa and South America. The storm was designated Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday, and has a good chance of becoming the first tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season. Surface winds measured by the 8:23am EDT pass of the European ASCAT satellite revealed that 92L already has a closed surface circulation, though the circulation is large and elongated. Top winds seen by ASCAT were about 25 mph. METEOSAT visible satellite loops show a large and impressive circulation that is steadily consolidating, with spiral bands building inward towards center, and upper-level outflow beginning to be established to the northwest and north.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.
Climatology argues against development of 92L, since only one named storm has ever formed between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the month of June--Tropical Storm Ana of 1979 (Figure 2). However, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) underneath 92L are an extremely high 28 - 30°C, which is warmer than the temperatures reached during the peak of hurricane season last year, in August - September. In fact, with summer not even here, and three more months of heating remaining until we reach peak SSTs in the Atlantic, ocean temperatures across the entire Caribbean and waters between Africa and the Lesser Antilles are about the same as they were during the peak week for water temperatures in 2009 (mid-September.) While 92L will cross over a 1°C cooler patch of water on Monday, the storm will encounter very warm SSTs of 28-29°C again by Tuesday.
The disturbance doesn't have to worry about dry air--Total Precipitable Water (TPW) loops show a very moist plume of air accompanies 92L, and water vapor satellite loops show that the center of 92L is at least 300 - 400 miles from any substantial areas of dry air. The 60-day cycle of enhanced thunderstorm activity called the Madden-Jullian Oscillation is currently favoring upward motion over eastern tropical Atlantic, and this enhanced upward motion helps create stronger updrafts and higher chances of tropical cyclone development.
Figure 2. Tropical Storm Ana of 1979 was the only June named storm on record to form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The forecast for 92L
A major issue for 92L, like it is for most June disturbances, is wind shear. The subtropical jet stream has a branch flowing through the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic north of 10° N that is bringing 20 - 40 knots of wind shear to the region. Our disturbance is currently located at 7°N, well south of this band of high shear, and is only experiencing 5 - 15 knots of shear. This moderate amount of shear should allow for some steady development of 92L over the next few days as it tracks west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a medium (30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Based on visible satellite imagery over the past few hours, I believe this forecast is not aggressive enough, and that 92L has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Another factor holding 92L back is its proximity to the Equator. I would give 92L higher chances of developing if it were not so close to the Equator. The system is organizing at about 7°N latitude, which is so close to the Equator that it cannot leverage the Earth's spin much to help it get spinning. It is quite unusual for a tropical depression to form south of 8°N latitude.
The farther south 92L stays, the better chance it has at survival. With the system's steady west-northwest movement this week, 92L should begin encountering hostile wind shear in excess of 30 knots by Thursday, which should be able to greatly weaken or entirely destroy the storm before it gets to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, residents of the islands--particularly the northern Lesser Antilles--should follow the progress of 92L closely, and anticipate heavy rains and high winds moving through the islands by Saturday or Sunday next weekend. The GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that 92L will develop into a moderate strength tropical storm that will then be weakened or destroyed by the end of the week, before it reaches the islands. This looks like a reasonable forecast.
Figure 3. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for June 10, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
Oil spill wind forecast
There is little change to the oil spill wind forecast for the coming two weeks. Light winds of 5 - 10 knots mostly out of the south or southeast will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the coast of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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trollin' trollin' trollin' ....
Better them than us?????? How can you wish something like that to anyone, specially those needy countries? Besides your scenario is even less probable than Stephanie Abrams' worst case Hurricane...
The NHC will wait till morning to determine how much T-Storms are near the center to classify this or not as a TD @ 11am.
This is a decently good point. Which is why I pay attention to the NHC.
LOL!
S of 18N and into the Caribbean, a different story, maybe.
Does anyone have a link to the long range Canadian that goes out to 240 hours?
Thanks, what is your input on 92L, Do you think It will "dissapear" or where will it head? I knwo it is early , just want your opinion.
Diurnal maximum is entering the beginning phases, and with it we should begin to see cooling cloud tops associated with the convection to the north. If convection can continue to build and wrap around the COC, early morning visible sat images teamed with this latest ASCAT pass should reveal a healthy structure and with it an upgrade to TD1 by 11AM.
"Full speed ahead, Sir"
what part of texas coast are you from
How come homes in weather-sensitive areas of the US such as hurricane prone coastal regions (except South FL) and "Tornado alley" aren't built better? I mean come'on people! Wood ai'nt gonna hold nothin'...
btwntx08 lol.i'm duck
am cow
See, sometimes everyone on here is so confused as to why the NHC takes so "long" to upgrade systems... well, it's because they must have realized it was not going to be doing too hot tonight. They saw something we weren't able to.
I think its because of the cold, cement house wouldn't do too good in chilly weather, unless we are talking about a penguin's house XD
That is what insulation materials are for. Everytime I look at The Weather Channel there is video of an entire town leveled... no kidding! Build better and many more lives could be saved.
I concur after viewing that ASCAT pass. Structure wise this thing has looked great with some beautiful poleward and equatorial outflow channels typical of what you would see with canes. But till now this thing has yet to maintain any deep convection near the coc. Morning visibles should be interesting.
http://meteocentre.com/animate.php?lang=en&satdir=/models/gemglb_amer_00/&satname=gemglbPR00&satext =gif&num=56&speed=5&src=1&title=GEM%20GLB%2000Z%20ANIMHere you go, from the 52- the final (56th) frames you'll see the storm moving through the bahamas and into south florida
nah, probably will stay the same, now at 8am
...
XD
exactly, insulation in a cement house is, well... a little difficult XD
so wood it is, seriously I cant imagine myself living in one of those houses, they are just so weak, like in the movies when people can actually punch a wall and make a hole O_o?
Then I think what the result would be here in my house LOL!
Lots of bandages and maybe a fractured something XD I have solid walls :3
ABNT20 KNHC 140523
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE
ha! where is my cookie?
It stayed the same :3
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