Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT op 11 juni 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.

Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)

Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

Categories: Flood

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3851. pottery 12:58 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting scott39: Goodone, I wasnt looking where i was walking. LOL :)) Member Since: 24 oktober 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

3852. MiamiHurricanes09 12:58 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Here you can really notice 92L's rotation and it's recent push towards the NW. MIMIC-TPW Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3853. cyclonekid 12:59 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
QUESTION! I've heard that this will be the farthest east a storm has formed, if it forms. Wouldn't it also be the farthest south if it forms?? Member Since: 14 juli 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1624

3854. MiamiHurricanes09 12:59 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting AllStar17: Plus, the stronger it gets, the less the chance of it being ripped apart. That, and look at the size of 92L. That will have a major role on it surviving the shear to the north of it. Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3855. cg2916 12:59 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: The TUTT will affect 92L in a negative way if it enters into the Caribbean, which doesn't seem likely. The TUTT will not affect 92L if it goes north of the islands. Uh oh! Member Since: 21 december 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

3856. miamiamiga 1:00 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
RE: Post 3825 Scott39: I know for one, I have NEVER stated in my ENTIRE life that I thought drilling down deep was the answer to our problems. Personally, I have been active in the promotion of sustainable energy, which does NOT include fossil fuels. I do not believe in blowing off mountain tops and I do not believe in off-shore drilling. I believe in electric cars that can use solar and wind energy to keep them going. I believe in utility companies investing in electrical grids that include solar panels on the roofs of as many residential and commercial buildings as possible. I do not care what party is in power, I just care that their intent is to be thoughtful, proactive, and looking to our long-term interests and security (economic, health AND environmental security). The only way that is going to happen is for the GOVERNMENT to make some investments, as businesses are too worried about their bottom line TODAY AND NEXT MONTH, to be thinking about what might happen in 10 years! Member Since: 6 mei 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 115

3857. MiamiHurricanes09 1:00 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: AL 92 2010061312 BEST 0 67N 336W 20 1011 DB Pressure decreasing as expected, I also noticed winds decreased. Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3858. Patrap 1:01 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Invest92 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models) Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models) Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

3859. SLU 1:01 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
283 WHXX01 KWBC 131257 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1257 UTC SUN JUN 13 2010 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100613 1200 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 100613 1200 100614 0000 100614 1200 100615 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 6.7N 33.6W 8.0N 35.6W 9.2N 37.7W 10.2N 39.8W BAMD 6.7N 33.6W 7.8N 36.0W 8.9N 38.4W 10.1N 40.7W BAMM 6.7N 33.6W 7.8N 36.0W 9.0N 38.3W 10.1N 40.4W LBAR 6.7N 33.6W 7.6N 35.9W 8.7N 38.7W 10.2N 41.8W SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 39KTS 49KTS DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 39KTS 49KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 100615 1200 100616 1200 100617 1200 100618 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 11.0N 42.2W 12.7N 47.2W 14.2N 51.9W 15.3N 56.7W BAMD 11.0N 42.9W 12.8N 47.1W 14.0N 50.2W 14.5N 53.2W BAMM 10.9N 42.6W 12.2N 47.2W 13.5N 51.6W 13.9N 55.8W LBAR 11.5N 44.8W 14.9N 49.6W 18.5N 51.1W 21.2N 50.4W SHIP 56KTS 64KTS 63KTS 60KTS DSHP 56KTS 64KTS 63KTS 60KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 6.7N LONCUR = 33.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT LATM12 = 6.4N LONM12 = 31.9W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 9KT LATM24 = 6.2N LONM24 = 30.1W WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ NNNN Member Since: 13 juli 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 2846

3860. cg2916 1:02 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: AL 92 2010061312 BEST 0 67N 336W 20 1011 DB Getting weaker. Member Since: 21 december 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

3861. MiamiHurricanes09 1:02 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting Patrap: Invest92 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models) Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models) Ughh, I lost the link for that again. Can you please share it with me. Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3862. Patrap 1:03 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
ATCF images (Hurricane Track Models) Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

3863. MiamiHurricanes09 1:03 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting cg2916: Getting weaker. No it's getting stronger, winds just decreased as I expected them to due to last night's ASCAT pass that showed no signs of winds above 25 knots. Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3865. cg2916 1:04 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Hey, Miami, how do you think 92L will survive the shear? Member Since: 21 december 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

3866. MiamiHurricanes09 1:04 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting Patrap: ATCF images (Hurricane Track Models) Thanks! Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3867. cg2916 1:04 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: No it's getting stronger, winds just decreased as I expected them to due to last night's ASCAT pass that showed no signs of winds above 25 knots. Oh, ok. Member Since: 21 december 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

3868. cg2916 1:05 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting rawson20: To me the storm is to far south and treking westerly, Don't they usually have a better chance of developing above the 15? It'll curve north. Member Since: 21 december 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

3869. wfyweather 1:06 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
MOST LIKELY, it ISNT getting weaker. lol Member Since: 12 juli 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 422

3870. TampaSpin 1:06 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting pottery: :)) Looks like Steering would tend to keep it on more of a West movement....but, very weak steering tho. Member Since: 2 september 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

3871. pottery 1:06 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Here you can really notice 92L's rotation and it's recent push towards the NW. MIMIC-TPW That's interesting. But we need to see that north slide continue for the next 12 hrs to make a good call. Member Since: 24 oktober 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

3872. WPBHurricane05 1:06 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting rawson20: To me the storm is to far south and treking westerly, Don't they usually have a better chance of developing above the 15? Not when there is 40 knots of shear at 15. Conditions are fine where it is at now. Further down the road remains to be seen. Member Since: 31 juli 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 7895

3873. Cavin Rawlins 1:07 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Alot of assumptions flying around the blog. Member Since: 24 juli 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

3874. MiamiHurricanes09 1:07 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting cg2916: Hey, Miami, how do you think 92L will survive the shear? The stronger it is the better chances it has of surviving the shear. Plus it is large in size, so that too will help it survive the shear. And finally if it can acquire an anticyclone aloft it should have no problems going through the shear without major disruptions. Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3875. CaribBoy 1:07 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
92L now has its floater. Member Since: 6 oktober 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2845

3876. cg2916 1:08 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting Weather456: Alot of assumptions flying around the blog. Yup, I'd say. Member Since: 21 december 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

3877. nrtiwlnvragn 1:08 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Member Since: 23 september 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8918

3878. sailingallover 1:08 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
First storm out of the Tropical Atlantic/ITCZ as promised. OK guessed at :) But things have been to ripe for the last couple months for something not to form up. Member Since: 1 september 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 982

3879. eyesontheweather 1:08 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting miamiamiga: RE: Post 3825 Scott39: I know for one, I have NEVER stated in my ENTIRE life that I thought drilling down deep was the answer to our problems. Personally, I have been active in the promotion of sustainable energy, which does NOT include fossil fuels. I do not believe in blowing off mountain tops and I do not believe in off-shore drilling. I believe in electric cars that can use solar and wind energy to keep them going. I believe in utility companies investing in electrical grids that include solar panels on the roofs of as many residential and commercial buildings as possible. I do not care what party is in power, I just care that their intent is to be thoughtful, proactive, and looking to our long-term interests and security (economic, health AND environmental security). The only way that is going to happen is for the GOVERNMENT to make some investments, as businesses are too worried about their bottom line TODAY AND NEXT MONTH, to be thinking about what might happen in 10 years! I agree with these thoughts but am inclined to say that big energy co's spend more on campaign re-elections than any other group and big energy has a huge budget for fedral lobbyist. So until "we the people" shout louder at the Gov't to overcomne big oil we will most likely stay on the road we are on! Member Since: 25 augustus 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 613

3880. Drakoen 1:08 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
92L windsat revealed the system continuing to move west with the circulation better defined than last night. Member Since: 28 oktober 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3881. CaribBoy 1:09 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Floater is too far north :( Member Since: 6 oktober 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2845

3882. SLU 1:09 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
The models have shifted south again and now show 92L entering the Caribbean Member Since: 13 juli 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 2846

3883. cg2916 1:10 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: The stronger it is the better chances it has of surviving the shear. Plus it is large in size, so that too will help it survive the shear. And finally if it can acquire an anticyclone aloft it should have no problems going through the shear without major disruptions. Ok, thanks. Member Since: 21 december 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

3884. cg2916 1:11 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Not good for 92L. Member Since: 21 december 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

3885. MiamiHurricanes09 1:11 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting Drakoen: 92L windsat revealed the system continuing to move west with the circulation better defined than last night. Agreed. Descending pass: Ascending pass: Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3886. cg2916 1:12 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Pretty nice circulation, still not completely closed: Member Since: 21 december 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

3887. MiamiHurricanes09 1:12 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting SLU: The models have shifted south again and now show 92L entering the Caribbean Yup, 12z models shifting southward once more. Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3888. pottery 1:13 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting Patrap: Invest92 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models) Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models) Morning Mr. Patrap. We are not amused by that green line in your top image. Member Since: 24 oktober 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

3889. Chicklit 1:13 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting CaribBoy: Floater is too far north :( Member Since: 11 juli 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10242

3890. Drakoen 1:14 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Member Since: 28 oktober 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3891. aquak9 1:14 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
1200Z BAMS coming into better consensus. I like seeing the BAMD pull further south than the previous run. keep it further south, better chance of it getting torn apart later down the road.. Member Since: 13 augustus 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 24996

3892. scott39 1:14 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting miamiamiga: RE: Post 3825 Scott39: I know for one, I have NEVER stated in my ENTIRE life that I thought drilling down deep was the answer to our problems. Personally, I have been active in the promotion of sustainable energy, which does NOT include fossil fuels. I do not believe in blowing off mountain tops and I do not believe in off-shore drilling. I believe in electric cars that can use solar and wind energy to keep them going. I believe in utility companies investing in electrical grids that include solar panels on the roofs of as many residential and commercial buildings as possible. I do not care what party is in power, I just care that their intent is to be thoughtful, proactive, and looking to our long-term interests and security (economic, health AND environmental security). The only way that is going to happen is for the GOVERNMENT to make some investments, as businesses are too worried about their bottom line TODAY AND NEXT MONTH, to be thinking about what might happen in 10 years! We need fresh, smart, leaders,honest ,buisness minded, truely for the people officials working for us, to make happen what you are talking about. Is this possible? Only if the people of the USA have finally had enough I just hope its not too late. These people do exist. Member Since: 13 juni 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

3893. Cavin Rawlins 1:14 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Track guidance favours a west-northwest motion over the next couple of days with a bit more northerly component as it nears 50W. However, I think some of the models are a bit north for my fancy. For one, there is a large mid-latitude trough passing through near 50W and as it does so should give way to ridging. This should favour a more west-northwest track than northwest track bringing the system near the islands in about 5 days. Folks in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. This comes before the 12Z model. Member Since: 24 juli 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

3894. nrtiwlnvragn 1:14 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
The latest Windsat is about 4 degrees further west than NHC currently has the position. Most of the Windsat showing a circulation is flagged, so is suspect. Since it did not show further east where NHC has the position, multiple LLC may exist. Member Since: 23 september 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8918

3895. cg2916 1:15 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Does someone have a link to the 12Z models? Member Since: 21 december 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

3896. MiamiHurricanes09 1:15 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting Chicklit: Horrible floater. Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3897. Orcasystems 1:15 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting Weather456: Alot of assumptions flying around the blog. They have only just started.. wait for it :) Member Since: 1 oktober 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

3899. cg2916 1:16 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Yup, 12z models shifting southward once more. So, does this mean 92L will have a harder time if it takes this track due to the TUTT? Member Since: 21 december 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

3900. IKE 1:17 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Member Since: 9 juni 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

3901. MiamiHurricanes09 1:17 PM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting aquak9: 1200Z BAMS coming into better consensus. I like seeing the BAMD pull further south than the previous run. keep it further south, better chance of it getting torn apart later down the road.. Actually quite the opposite. If it goes further south it will have more time to intensify due to the band of shear being north if it. The more north it goes the higher the chances of it being torn by shear. Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

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