Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT op 11 juni 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.

Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)

Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

Categories: Flood

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3101. Seastep 3:27 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: am going too have high speed net and i be move in too my new home Night and day. Enjoy! :) Member Since: 9 september 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

3102. TampaSpin 3:28 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
I have not drunk any alchol all day.....I THINK I NEED A BEER.....with this one for a while.....I THINK YOU ALL should join in and toast in our future first storm of the year......LOL! Member Since: 2 september 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

3103. NCHurricane2009 3:28 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: NOPE its not a depression yet.....It truly is not without having a tighter Closed Surface Low develop....Maybe by 5am we might have a Depression........MAYBE! Just my opinion, I thinks its developing faster to the point it will likely be TD 1 tomorrow, possibly TS Alex by late tomorrow. Already has the satellite appearance of Fred in its developmental stages last year, plus the anticyclonce over it and warm SSTs warrants that it could have an easy time developing. Member Since: 15 september 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

3104. Clearwater1 3:28 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting Relix: Now models are pointing north. Wooohooo. I am just gonna wait for it to be around 50W =P Which new models are you refering to, pointing north. Thanks Member Since: 26 augustus 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1502

3105. xcool 3:28 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
TampaSpin lol Member Since: 26 september 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3106. Stormchaser2007 3:29 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
00z GFS out to 12 hours. StormVista Member Since: 9 juni 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

3107. MiamiHurricanes09 3:29 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Nevermind. Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3108. Levi32 3:29 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Member Since: 24 november 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25447

3109. Levi32 3:30 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Nice arcing spiral feeder band to the south of the center. Member Since: 24 november 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25447

3110. MZV 3:30 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Gonna leave this to the night owls. Whatever it becomes, I can check it in the morning. (It's definately LARGE right now, if not well formed.) Member Since: 3 juli 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 227

3111. Tazmanian 3:31 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
new poll when do you think willhave TD 1 A sunday AM B Sunday PM C sunday at 10PM D monday be for noon Member Since: 21 mei 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111341

3112. MiamiHurricanes09 3:31 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: new poll when do you think willhave TD 1 A sunday AM B Sunday PM C sunday at 10PM D monday be for noon Because I know the NHC is conservative, B. Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3113. NCHurricane2009 3:32 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: new poll when do you think willhave TD 1 A sunday AM B Sunday PM C sunday at 10PM D monday be for noon B Sunday PM Member Since: 15 september 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

3114. xcool 3:32 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
A Member Since: 26 september 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3115. MiamiHurricanes09 3:32 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
00z GFS 12 Hours Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3116. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:33 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting Levi32: Nice arcing spiral feeder band to the south of the center. did you run those by tampaspin first he seems to know everything while the rest of us well you know Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40490

3118. 7544 3:33 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
a Member Since: 6 mei 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

3119. TampaSpin 3:34 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Levi do you think it is still embedded within the ITCZ yet ......it appears to me to be already detached from the ITCZ Member Since: 2 september 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

3120. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:34 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
its lifting out of the ITCZ Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40490

3121. MrstormX 3:34 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Levi do you think it is still embedded within the ITCZ yet ......it appears to me to be already detached from the ITCZ I agree, it does seem detached. Member Since: 27 mei 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4231

3122. JRRP 3:35 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
mastodon!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link see you later...... Member Since: 16 augustus 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4305

3123. Seastep 3:35 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
No TD on this one, if designated. IMO, straight to TS if anything. Member Since: 9 september 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

3124. hercj 3:35 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Levi do you think it is still embedded within the ITCZ yet ......it appears to me to be already detached from the ITCZ Hey TS great game Member Since: 5 september 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

3125. Levi32 3:36 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Levi do you think it is still embedded within the ITCZ yet ......it appears to me to be already detached from the ITCZ It's still embedded. That's why the center is broad and elongated towards the west. That is courtesy of the ITCZ screwing up the convergence zones. When 92L starts making its northwest move it will eventually separate from the ITCZ. Member Since: 24 november 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25447

3126. TampaSpin 3:36 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: did you run those by tampaspin first he seems to know everything while the rest of us well you know WHATEVER........geeesh....here we go....i have not challenged anyone on anything.....WOW Member Since: 2 september 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

3127. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:36 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
INV/92/L MARK 7.4N/33.5W Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40490

3128. Levi32 3:37 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Clearly still elongated. Check out the vort max all the way over at 40W. Member Since: 24 november 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25447

3129. MiamiHurricanes09 3:38 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
00z SHIPS takes 92L to category 1 strength at 72 hours. Shear doesn't become a problem for it until 84 hours, when shear increases to 19 knots. INVEST AL922010 06/13/10 00 UTC Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3130. SaoFeng 3:38 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting Seastep: No TD on this one, if designated. IMO, straight to TS if anything. It needs to have the winds... I haven't seen any TS winds yet... though I would not be surprised to. Anyone got any wind measurements? Member Since: 1 september 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 70

3132. NCHurricane2009 3:38 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
I don't know about this model of "part of the ITCZ vs. not part of the ITCZ." This system I think developed from the strong tropical wave from western Africa that gained much attention recently, but then it fizzled out (followed the wave axis on NHC surface analysis, which shows it along the ITCZ). 92L is at the location of the tropical wave. Today, 92L (the tropical wave) I think intensified underneath upper difluence of the 200 mb anticyclone. Its surface pressures fell, so that it has a lower pressure than the avg pressure of the ITCZ to its east and west. Now all the storms are collected around 92L and not the ITCZ because max convergence now belongs to the lower pressure of 92L rather than the ITCZ, but 92L is still along the ITCZ, even if it becomes TD 1, still along the ITCZ. Member Since: 15 september 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

3133. wunderkidcayman 3:39 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
New surface map is out (00Z) Member Since: 13 juni 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5409

3134. JLPR2 3:39 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: INV/92/L MARK 7.4N/33.5W All of those little areas of convection popping up remind me of Felix Member Since: 4 september 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

3135. MrstormX 3:40 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting altesticstorm10: Are you guys out of your minds? 92L will not develop into a tropical depression. It seems like even the experts on this blog have lost their wits. It's June, for crying out loud. If that alone isn't good enough for you, just remember 92L is at 7N and when it moves north, the shear is going to eat it alive. 92L has a *zero* percent chance to develop into a tropical cyclone. It's simple common sense...commend me when I'm right. Wait until July... It wouldn't have been made an invest if there was "zero" chance. Don't downcast Member Since: 27 mei 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4231

3136. centex 3:41 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting altesticstorm10: Are you guys out of your minds? 92L will not develop into a tropical depression. It seems like even the experts on this blog have lost their wits. It's June, for crying out loud. If that alone isn't good enough for you, just remember 92L is at 7N and when it moves north, the shear is going to eat it alive. 92L has a *zero* percent chance to develop into a tropical cyclone. It's simple common sense...commend me when I'm right. Wait until July... Amen Member Since: 10 augustus 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856

3137. Seastep 3:41 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
3131. altesticstorm10 Got your crow ready? :) Member Since: 9 september 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

3138. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:41 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: WHATEVER........geeesh....here we go....i have not challenged anyone on anything.....WOW i got no problem with ya bro just sometimes you forget about all the others that put time in here and you only try to credit yourself for all the info and thats not the case its a group effort and your part of that group just like me and everyone else don't be mad at me tampa i meant no ill intend towards you Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40490

3140. stillwaiting 3:42 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
well,well,well....I was saying this afternoon that we'd have a 92L within 12 hrs......and i get off work and come home to this?????,lol:).....I also expect our first TC of the year by tomorrow's 11am,but even more probable is a strait to TS status by then!!! imo 92L is going to have some rapid organization and possible rapid intensifacation over the next 12hrs.... Member Since: 5 oktober 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

3142. CyclonicVoyage 3:42 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: It looks like to me it has already seperated from the ITCZ.......i really can't believe what is behind 92L tho....HOLLY CRAP...and MJO IS COMING SOON TOO......Gang i hope your ready for a very bumpy JULY coming..... I have my reservations with 92L, as is why I am surprised, or amazed as I said earlier. I've done a lot of poking around upper air models and overall dynamics the past two weeks. Not poking around for a storm but, poking around for the conditions to warrant a storm and through 10 days looked rather bleak for the most part. 92L looks like it's coming full gorilla but, in my opinion, as it travels further west, may be short lived as there is an amplifying TUTT coming back down into the Caribbean. Everything I've been looking at has this TUTT lifting out about by next weekend and ever improving conditions thereafter. While 92L is, to me, an amazing sight and I'll be exited to track it's development, I just think it will be short lived is all, just my opinion. Member Since: 30 januari 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

3143. Levi32 3:43 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
92L has more of a chance to become a tropical cyclone than any other system we have tracked yet this year. Member Since: 24 november 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25447

3145. MrstormX 3:43 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
3139.) Well you do have a point with that, lol. But this is in an entirely different ballpark. Member Since: 27 mei 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4231

3146. weatherblog 3:43 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting altesticstorm10: Are you guys out of your minds? 92L will not develop into a tropical depression. It seems like even the experts on this blog have lost their wits. It's June, for crying out loud. If that alone isn't good enough for you, just remember 92L is at 7N and when it moves north, the shear is going to eat it alive. 92L has a *zero* percent chance to develop into a tropical cyclone. It's simple common sense...commend me when I'm right. Wait until July... There has been tropical depressions in this area in June before (TD 1 2000). It's obviously against climatology, but wasn't Bertha? And, that became a major hurricane. It looks to be closing in on TD status and, in my opinion, has a 90% chance of development over the next 48 hours. Doesn't matter if it's June or not. All the conditions are there to support development. Member Since: 10 juli 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623

3147. reedzone 3:44 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
I will be back online for the TWO, very interested on what they have to say.. Member Since: 1 juli 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

3148. MiamiHurricanes09 3:44 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting Levi32: 92L has more of a chance to become a tropical cyclone than any other system we have tracked yet this year. Correct. Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3149. NCHurricane2009 3:45 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Satellite loop in post 3127, Center of circulation becoming better defined last couple of frames. Member Since: 15 september 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

3150. MiamiHurricanes09 3:45 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Quoting altesticstorm10: I sure do have the crow ready...I have a ton of boiled and baked ones with seasoning, ready special for you as well as 95% of the rest of the blog who believes 92L will develop into TD1 and Alex... We have enough reason to believe that this area will become TD 1, if you disagree your going against many experts on the blog, the NHC, models, etc... Member Since: 2 september 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

3151. MrstormX 3:45 AM GMT op 13 juni 2010
Looks like its forming a false eye, no way thats the coc lol. Member Since: 27 mei 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4231

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