Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting weathersp:
Stacey Stewart earlier today did his presentation today at the EasternUS Wx Confrence in Baltimore (which I attended). He said that the running bet around the office was the first Hurricane by June 30th...

Here are the notes I took.

-Graphical tropical outlook will now include % chances.
-Special TWO will be issued as needed in between normal 6 hour
-Advanced warning system lead time for warnings now 36 hours
-Costs the US taxpayer 5cents a person to run NHC
-Briefly touched on the Katrina controversy with NHC slow willingness to change NHC forecast
-Storm surge dropped from Saffir-Simpson Scale
-His personal prediction for this season.
17 total
12 hurricanes
200 ACE
- Very active early season, mid to late July, late and strong Carib Gulf systems as SST moves West

- Mantra at office... GO SHEAR!

What was interesting was his opinion on SST's and Major Hurricanes, and his point was that, it doesn't matter. As long as the SST's are above 26�C its really up to other environmental factors. He also pointed out that he takes every wave that comes off of Africa will eventually be a CAT 5 if the "Air factors" (not sea) are ideal. You have to subtract from that goal based on the factors against it. Only then can you recalculate its odds of survival.

thanks for that information. And, I strongly agree with the bolded part concerning major hurricanes. All one has to do is look at Hurricane Isabel in 2003 to prove that point.

i can feel a T.C.F.A. coming soon

karen your avatar is almost as scary as Keeper's

nice nice

92l kinda reminds me of bill in its stucture if this did form into ts will it be a record for making across the basin idk tia

Quoting Hurricanes101:


what shear? I really dont see what you are talking about there

anticyclone is moving in tandem with the system

Yes, it seems there is an anticyclone aloft.

REQUIREMENTS FOR Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

If a system gets 35 to 38 points, a TCFA may be issued depending on Dvorak trends, and if a system gets 39 points or more a TCFA should be issued.

Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities 3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours 5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance 5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt 2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt 3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt 4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours 3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours 4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb 3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less 4 points

500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough 2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system 4 points

200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance -4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance 4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance 3 points

Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher 3 points

Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours 3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours 4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours 5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA) 3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies 5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies -2 points

Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is north (or south) of 5 degrees latitude 3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource 3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other 2 points
**********************************************************

I've met Stacey Stewart before, nice guy

Anxiety attack?

and now you wanna come in here with 92L?

you are glutton for punishment, reed. Glad you're feeling good enough to join us. :)

Excellent presentation

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i can feel a T.C.F.A. coming soon

Agreed, this thing may blow up to a TD by morning, nothing more than a weak TS if it keeps going, do to high wind shear. Imagine if this was August.. We would have a classic Cape Verde sytem.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i can feel a T.C.F.A. coming soon

Can ya smell...
What the Atlantic..
Is cooken?
lol

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i can feel a T.C.F.A. coming soon

Agreed.

Blog extremely active with the formation of 92L here this evening.

so now that I took a shower, prepared my pop corn and cranked up the AC

how is 92L doing? XD

Gotta say after last night bashing.....RAYS WIN!!!!!.....NO i see we have am Invest which i thought was coming.

Quoting aquak9:
Anxiety attack?

and now you wanna come in here with 92L?

you are glutton for punishment, reed. Glad you're feeling good enough to join us. :)

Thanks, whats interesting is that the GFS picked this up a week ago, then dropped it. This is gonna be a very active Cape Verde Season. As far as 92L goes, highest it MIGHT reach, in my opinion, is a weak TS before getting a nice buzzed cut form the shear to the north. Although I should check the shear map and see whats up with that.

couple DAYS off from june 8 2005 STORMS.

Quoting reedzone:


I had an anxiety attack last night, could not walk, everything was numb. They also found an infection somewhere, still waiting on the results.Probably coming in tomorrow sometime. 92L is really looking good for a wave in June, I'm impressed.

Anxiety, with respect to numbness, and walking have no relationship. Infection can have such. Something is not right, if that is the case. Get a second opinion if you are waiting for results, you should not be! It should be very visible and easily diagnosed.....

Isn't this D-max? we will all be really disappointed tomorrow if it is.

I am absolutely amazed.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


what shear? I really dont see what you are talking about there

anticyclone is moving in tandem with the system

Check out GOES -- it's heading in the direction of about 15N 45W according to the forecasts, which as you can see is a hotbed of nasty. And check the tendency -- the area immediately before it reaches that point is actually rising, while the worst area -- ~50kt -- is only falling slightly.

TampaSpin HEY

Quoting aquak9:
karen your avatar is almost as scary as Keeper's

Hehe, thanks. I made it years ago.

Quoting xcool:

The models look to be split between whether 92L will go into the Caribbean or North of the Leewards.

Quoting all4hurricanes:
Isn't this D-max? we will all be really disappointed tomorrow if it is.

nope, D-max is far away

If 92L becomes a TD in the next 24 hrs or before reaching 45W...it would the most eastern June depression on record.

92L either near 7N or passing it...it has gain some northerly component

Thunderstorms increasing on 92L

D-Max doesn't happen until very early in the morning. We're in the crossover period between DMIN and DMAX.

I went down the TCFA checklist we have yet to exceed 39 points, which is the number that a TCFA should be issued. After adding up all the points we have 36 points, I could be wrong though.

So this is where the party is tonight, huh??

92L looking real solid...

Quoting KarenRei:


Check out GOES -- it's heading in the direction of about 15N 45W according to the forecasts, which as you can see is a hotbed of nasty. And check the tendency -- the area immediately before it reaches that point is actually rising, while the worst area -- ~50kt -- is only falling slightly.

you do realize it is only at 7 degrees north right? It is going to take 3-4 days to get to 15N

Can some of you with "more experienced eyes"
take a look at this loop
RAMMB Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmirimg_loop.asp?storm_identifier=AL922010&st arting_image=2010AL92_4KMIRIMG_201006122045.GIF

and tell me what the appearance changes may indicate.

Thanks
CRS

but back in 2005 the blog was still vary new

Also 92L would be the only TC to develop in the E Atlantic in June.

Quoting JLPR2:


nope, D-max is far away

Wow I think we'll have TD one when D-max hits, we'll see what it looks like tomorrow. Good night everyone

weatherwatcher12 YEAH DO.

Quoting KarenRei:


Check out GOES -- it's heading in the direction of about 15N 45W according to the forecasts, which as you can see is a hotbed of nasty. And check the tendency -- the area immediately before it reaches that point is actually rising, while the worst area -- ~50kt -- is only falling slightly.

The track forecasts are spread out.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I went down the TCFA checklist we have yet to exceed 39 points, which is the number that a TCFA should be issued. After adding up all the points we have 36 points, I could be wrong though.

We just need persistence.

Quoting xcool:
couple DAYS off from june 8 2005 STORMS.

Yes, but 92L is 100 times cooler than Arlene in 2005. Hehehe.

Weather456 .put new history on map huh.

hey xcool blackout is still at 2am est right tia

Quoting TampaSpin:
Gotta say after last night bashing.....RAYS WIN!!!!!.....NO i see we have am Invest which i thought was coming.

I was forced to listen to your HORRIBLE announcers all night.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


We just need persistence.

Exactly.

Miami ;)

Quoting Hurricanes101:


you do realize it is only at 7 degrees north right? It is going to take 3-4 days to get to 15N

GFDL says 48h to 11N, and that's where the shear starts getting troublesome.

Evening all (btw, Invest 92L, when did we have 91L?)

Also must say wow, just wow, with 92L. I was wrong in doubting this tropical wave when it emerged from Africa, thought it would start encountering westerly shear once it moved past 30W out of the 200 mb anticyclone extending from Africa. My flaw was not expecting the anticyclone to expand westward and keep it in favorable conditions

Now the 200 mb anticyclone extends to 50W! I don't know how to inuitively figure out how the 200 mb atmospheric flow well evolve except near extratropical cyclones, plus I don't have good links to computer models, would be nice to have.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I went down the TCFA checklist we have yet to exceed 39 points, which is the number that a TCFA should be issued. After adding up all the points we have 36 points, I could be wrong though.

no its 36 we are real close now

HUMMMMMMMMMMM.....

92L surpasses 2005's June storms. Conditions in 2005, or for most years cannot support such systems in the EATL. 92L is very special.

2010 may end up taking away some of 2005's records as it already did with SSTs.

Quoting KarenRei:


GFDL says 48h to 11N, and that's where the shear starts getting troublesome.

I'm paying attention to the BAMM, the GFDL seems off to me.