Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

GFS has wanted to model the best vorticity with these last 3-4 waves at the apex. When in reality, the spin has remained farther S down the wave axis. Closer to the ITCZ. I suppose that it will be correct sooner or later.

Quoting utilaeastwind:
What do you guys think of the activity associated with the tropical wave over Honduras?

It looks like low pressure is forming over central Honduras and moving northward.

I am at 16.1 N 86.9W and we are getting about 25kt winds from the SE.

Welcome to you on the Isla de Utila, (just SW of Roatan)

Blog is moving fast so I think your question was missed.

StormW or someone have a comment about this area?

thanks
CRS

Quoting Patrap:
I guess a NUKE will raise the GOM SST's

Best alert the SWAT teams to that un..

LOL

A Nuke on a Basalt sea floor...?


Yup..there's ya answer.


pfffftttt..

You think I'm kidding? I believe the nuke idea is WAY crazy BS too, but some hi-profile folks are *actually* proposing that a nuke be used seal the well. I'm not kidding. They said the former Soviet union did it successfully more than once, and we should too. Of course, the Soviets never disclosed how this affected the environment or people.

I wonder if you can get re-elected after using a nuke 40 miles offshore NOLA? I wonder if a nuke underwater is good for the seafood industry? Time to Google "Bikini Atol". ;-)

AOI
XX/XX/XL
MARK
6.3N/35.6W

Old but good.

14:45 UTC

Good afternoon everyone! I hope everyone is having a good start to the weekend.

Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Yes all about the shear.The sheer makes the finally decision.

Yup.

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Welcome to you on the Isla de Utila,

Blog is moving fast so I think your question was missed.

StormW or someone have a comment about this area

thanks
CRS

surface speed convergence at the rear of a passing tropical wave...there are no signs of circulation over Honduras. Vort associated with the wave is moving into N CA.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
AOI
XX/XX/XL
MARK
6.3N/35.6W

Keeper i never did get to access the image could you email me a step by step explanation?

Quoting Weather456:


surface speed convergence at the rear of a passing tropical wave...there are no signs of circulation over Honduras. Vort associated with the wave is moving into N CA.

Thank you

Wow looking quite good. May have an invest on our hands soon.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
NNNN

ABNT20 KNHC 121730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
NNNN

Wow.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow.

LOL...get accustom to that...

Quoting hurricane23:
ABNT20 KNHC 121730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

I say fairly good call. This won't be in a hurry to develop within 2 days. It may take longer than that if it's going to become a TD. The circulation is closed but large and elongated zonally.

Why is that wow? Interesting wave for june but weak model support and strong westerlies ahead.

Quoting SiestaKeySam:
456, wont such a large and organized area of convection help cool down sst's in that particular area of the MDR, or not?

Has nothing to do with size...it is the amount of energy the system has to get that heat from the ocean and the time it takes to do so. Such a broad system with weak winds will only dissipate energy across the sea surface. Not enough to significantly cool the MDR.

Quoting SiestaKeySam:
are they looking for consistency or what? acre to elaborate, levi, 456?

I don't know....I would have given it acknowledgement but they are probably making the right call for now based on its latitude and broadness. If it looks as impressive tonight or tomorrow though I think they would be wise to mention it.

Quoting hurricane23:
Why is that wow? Interesting wave for june but weak model support and strong westerlies ahead.

Its wow because of the fact this is a late July style tropical wave in June that's organizing. Although it has a very low chance of actually amounting to anything, its a telling sign of the season to come. Also btw great to see you again 23.

Honestly that was a good call for now, we will learn more later in the TWD and PMDCA.

Quoting Weather456:


LOL...get accustom to that...

LOL!

Quoting SiestaKeySam:
are they looking for consistency or what? acre to elaborate, levi, 456?

The odds are against the future of the wave right now. Little model support and hostile conditions ahead. Also this is not a climo favored area so it does not make sense for the NHC to put a circle around it and isn't there 2mr. Consistency and persistence are two other important factors that we must consider. I suspect they would make a call if organization continues over the next 24 hrs.

Quoting hurricane23:
Why is that wow? Interesting wave for june but weak model support and strong westerlies ahead.

Because it should be mentioned.

MAIL SENT 456

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Because it should be mentioned.

I agree.. even if there is only a 1% chance.. they should still put a 0% circle around it.. considering its exploding right now (check out the new SAT image)

The Central Atlantic wave does look rather vigorous. If it continues to hold its own as it tracks W-NW, we may see an invest designation within the next 48 hours. There is plenty of time to monitor it if development occurs.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Because it should be mentioned.

Personally id rather them discuss it in the next Tropical Weather Discussion, or PMDSA where we will get deeper details. Just putting a little yellow circle around something and writing a two sentence description isn't going to be of help.

According to the cimss 850mb there is an indication the vorticity is trying to advect further northward.

Quoting MrstormX:


Personally id rather them discuss it in the next Tropical Weather Discussion, or PMDSA where we will get deeper details. Just putting a little yellow circle around something and writing a two sentence description isn't going to be of help.

I understand, I'm waiting for the discussion.

Quoting Weather456:


The odds are against the future of the wave right now. Little model support and hostile conditions ahead. Also this is not a climo favored area so it does not make sense for the NHC to put a circle around it and isn't there 2mr. Consistency and persistence are two other important factors that we must consider. I suspect they would make a call if organization continues over the next 24 hrs.

they will mark it but its going to be awhile may hold out till after midnight tonight just to see how it unfolds and if further organization occurs right now its an Area Of Interest AOI thats it

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
they will mark it but its going to be awhile may hold out till after midnight tonight just to see how it unfolds and if further organization occurs right now its an Area Of Interest AOI thats it

It's going to be a long night, let's see until what time I stay awake.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

Coming into view...

1715 UTC

They can issue special tropical weather outlooks at anytime if needed right?

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
They can issue special tropical weather outlooks at anytime if needed right?

Yes.

It should be reiterated that regardless of what happens to this system, we shouldn't even be seeing stuff like this out in the middle of the Atlantic in June. The mere fact that it's even there with this much organization and development potential should be a big cause for concern for what lies ahead.

If the wave can stay south of 15N then it has a chance. The models show the upper level high advecting westward and the upper level jet stream retracting further north.

The TPC analyzed this wave as embedded in the ITCZ which will confuse alot of people. The ITCZ is between the NE and SE trades. If the SE trades cross the equator and turn southwest into low pressure then it is the monsoon trough. This feature is not embedded in the classic definition of the ITCZ, it is embedded in the monsoon trough. The NHC needs to stop diluting the meaning of ITCZ and make clear distinctions between it and the monsoon trough.