Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting atmoaggie:

Okay, so if BP wasn't around in it's current form, who pays for the fix and cleanup next week, next year, and a decade from now when litigation gets somewhere?

Go ahead, destroy BP and then the magical, unseen, infinitely wealthy taxpayers can foot all the bills.

Yes, BP needs to pay. Criminal offenses considered and charged, if warranted, but we actually need that corporation to live on, for now.

You are exactly right. I hate what happened, but rather than boycott, I filled up at BP for these reasons: 1) I need gas. 2) They need to remain in business to pay claims. 3) A govt $11T in debt doesn't need another $100B added to the total.

You know, if you take the total US debt balance and divided by the number of people that file tax returns, we all owe about $150K each just to break even.

Quoting ssmate:
Stormchaser, That is quite an image, thanks. Do you have an image that compares it to last year?

2009:


WORLDS apart:

The best analogy to this feature imo should consider time, in that, Florence formed in September.

off topic, but if anyone knows how the atmospheric science program works at FIU please message me =S

Quoting MrstormX:
The best analog storm I can find for this AOI is Hurricane Florence of 2006, which developed off a ITCZ wave and followed a similar track to what the CMC is predicting.

Florence as a wave:


Florence track:

Actually I read 456's blog and this ITCZ disturbance should make it to the Bahamas, there this should be watched big time. You have low shear and warm SSTs.

Quoting Weather456:
The best analogy to this feature imo should consider time, in that, Florence formed in September.

And Florence was a tropical easterly wave, this is an ITCZ disturbance.

#1252 Here! Here!

Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Is shear really penetrating it that much?

Quoting Chicklit:
#1252 Here! Here!

Hey Chicklit!

Coastal waters of south Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas are heating up to 30, 31, and even 32C.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Actually I read 456's blog and this ITCZ disturbance should make it to the Bahamas, there this should be watched big time. You have low shear and warm SSTs.

could and should are two different words :)

Quoting Levi32:
Coastal waters of south Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas are heating up to 30, 31, and even 32C.

Yeah. If the ITCZ disturbance does make it there as expected it should have no problems intensifying.

.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Is shear really penetrating it that much?

I would not call that shear. Anticyclonic outlfow.

Quoting Weather456:


Yea based on satellite imagery and ascat...i would assume it's the next best thing to a closed circulation (if it isn't closed already)

Based on the recent ASCAT and satellite imagery, the circulation is elongated west to east.

Quoting JFLORIDA:
BP, Transocean workers argued before blast: witness

Brown said "a skirmish" took place between "the company man" from BP -- whose name he said he did not know -- and three Transocean employees.

"The company man was basically saying, 'Well this is how it's going to be,'" and Transocean rig workers "reluctantly agreed," Brown said.

The argument concerned "displacing the riser," Brown said, a reference to a decision made by rig personnel to remove heavy drilling mud from the drill pipe and replace it with water, in an attempt to wrap up drilling operations and plug the well with cement.

I dont see how anyone can defend BP with a straight face.

Mr. Brown is an employee of Transocean, a company that could be held liable. Mr. Brown may also be a "company man" just with the other company. Let the investigations run the course. The important thing right now is the clean up.

1318 and 1319

Circulation or Anticyclonic outflow?

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Shear?

Those are the satellite derived winds. Shows the circulation.

Oh my bad, I didn't read the key on the lower left hand corner. I just assumed since it was red it had to be shear.

Quoting Weather456:


I would not call that shear. Anticyclonic outlfow.

Got it. I messed up, I didn't read the key on the lower left hand corner.

convection goign to go BOOM right over the supposed center..

Quoting weather42009:
1318 and 1319

Circulation or Anticyclonic outflow?

Anticyclonic outflow aloft...those red barbs represent cloud motion between 100mb and 400 mb, the upper levels. No yellow barbs in the vicinity of the wave which would show low level cloud motion. These are obscured by thunderstorms.

Quoting Levi32:
Coastal waters of south Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas are heating up to 30, 31, and even 32C.

Was looking at that last night. Plenty of fuel of the coast and into the bahamas.

Quoting JFLORIDA:


Yea reward them for whats looking as the worst environmental disaster in US history, Suppressing evidence and withholding access to information.

Unbelievable.

DO you actually think they wont trying a reorganization or bankruptcy to minimize liability even after paying out dividends.

Keep trusting them - its worked so well to this point.

Do you know how much economic hardship this is going to cause?

Utterly unbelievable and irresponsible.

knowing our government, even if they go under, there will probably be a bail out waiting for them

Quoting Baltimorebirds:
So any storm that goes though that passage between florida,and cuba should intensfy rapidly.Of ourse it's only june.

Any storm that passes through the Bahamas region or Gulf of Mexico should rapidly intensify, if upper level winds are favorable, of course.

Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Does anybody know why sst are still cool on the nothern side of the yucatan.

return flow over the Yucatan blows offshore...which is upwelling.

Quoting StormW:


Most definitely.

Agreed. I'm waiting for the much anticipated synopsis on it. Even though you don't work on Saturdays :).

Quoting Baltimorebirds:
So any storm that goes though that passage between florida,and cuba should intensfy rapidly.Of ourse it's only june.

30C SSTs do not guarantee development nor rapid intensification. All they do is provide the potential for both of those things, by providing more upward motion and heat supply to sustain thunderstorms which can aid in development. However, at this time of year, wind shear is a big moderating factor, and no matter how hot the SSTs are, a TUTT or subtropical jet will easily kill a disturbance.

AOI
XX/XX/XL
MARK
6.3N/35.5W

Quoting JFLORIDA:


Yea reward them for whats looking as the worst environmental disaster in US history, Suppressing evidence and withholding access to information.

Unbelievable.

DO you actually think they wont trying a reorganization or bankruptcy to minimize liability even after paying out dividends.

Keep trusting them - its worked so well to this point.

FWIW, they are cooperating much better voluntarily paying right now (w/o waiting for judgements) than the Mexicans ever did for Ixtoc. Pemex declared sovereign immunity because they were a foreign company, and avoided paying even a dime in US claims and clean up costs. If Obama continues to be a grand standing idiot, BP could be inclined to pull same stunt based on precedence.

Quoting Weather456:


Anticyclonic outflow aloft...those red barbs represent cloud motion between 100mb and 400 mb, the upper levels. No yellow barbs in the vicinity of the wave which would show low level cloud motion. These are obscured by thunderstorms.

Thanks for clearing that up.

Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Does anybody know why sst are still cool on the nothern side of the yucatan.

Trade wind flow blows offshore on the northern coast of the Yucatan, which upwells the shallow shelf water.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Any storm that passes through the Bahamas region or Gulf of Mexico should rapidly intensify, if upper level winds are favorable, of course.

Claudette is an example of a tropical wave that eventually made it to the GOM and developed, Katrina is a tropical wave that eventually made it to the Bahamas.

Quoting JFLORIDA:


Its kinda a bailout now they are not being prosecuted yet and are allowed to manage and attempt clean it up as it gets worse.

exactly

Quoting JFLORIDA:


Who said anything about not getting every dollar out of their carcasses to cover this spill.

They have been paying out dividends - as the gulf literally dies.

BP directors will meet on Monday to discuss whether to suspend dividends to shareholders, the BBC has learned.

Executives will then meet with US President Barack Obama on Wednesday, but no announcement on the payments is expected in the near future.

THere are many ways to go after those in charge such as prosecution and going after their individual assets by suing them PERSONALLY without the scorched earth method. Many average Americans own shares of BP stock either as an individual holding or in mutual funds.

Would you feel this way if your retired grandmother living on a fixed income was counting on the dividend on her 100 shares? The corporate bigwigs will be fine without the dividend. It is the little people who won't be.

I know I may sound like a BP schill, but I AM NOT. I am just concerned with the unintended consequences of what could happen to regualr people. The middle class is hurting right now and hurting everyday Americans doesn't solve anything.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Upper level diffluent flow

This wave will have to get through the grave yard first if it wants to do anything. Nice jet streak coming from the gulf through the Caribbean and out into the open atl.

new cmc

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010061212&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

smashes the system into the northern antilles, and potentially puerto rico as a very strong system