Long range oil spill forecast
Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over through Tuesday, resulting in a continued threat of landfalling oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday through Tuesday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by Wednesday. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now predict a return to a southeasterly wind regime, which would bring the oil back over Louisiana by mid-June. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Long range oil spill outlook
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release yesterday showing 4-month model runs (Figure 1) of where the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might go. The model runs show that given typical ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, we can expect the oil to eventually affect most of the Florida Panhandle, Keys, and Florida East Coast, as well as coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Very little oil makes it to the West Florida "Forbidden Zone", where offshore-moving surface currents dominate. The oil may eventually affect three foreign countries: Mexico along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba near Havana, and the Bahamas in the Bimini Islands and along the western side of Grand Bahama Island. Once oil does get into the Loop Current, it will probably reach the coasts of France, Spain, and Portugal in about a year. The oil will be too dilute by then to be noticeable, though.
The present ocean current configuration in the Gulf features a newly formed Loop Current Eddy (dubbed "Franklin"), which will tend to capture the majority of oil that flows southwards from the Deepwater Horizon spill site. A plot of drifting buoys (drifters) launched into the Gulf May 19 - 24 (Figure 2) reveals how this clockwise-rotating eddy has been capturing southward-moving surface water. Eddy Franklin will move slowly west-southwest at 2 - 3 mph in the coming weeks. By August or September, the eddy will have moved far enough west that the Loop Current will be able to push northwards towards the spill location again, increasing the chances of oil getting into the Loop Current and being advected through the Florida Straits and up the U.S. Southeast Coast. Between now and mid-August, I doubt that a significant amount of oil will get into the Loop Current, unless a hurricane or tropical storm goes through the Gulf of Mexico. I put the odds of this happening by mid-August at 50%. The odds of a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico will increase sharply after mid-August, when the peak portion of hurricane season arrives. Past history shows a 95% chance of getting two or more named storms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons with above-normal activity.
Figure 1. Animation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showing one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean.
Figure 2. During the R/V Bellows 19-24 May 2010 Cruise into the Loop Current, drifters were dropped on the eastern edge of the Loop Current. These drifters have all been caught in Loop Current Eddy "Franklin", and are orbiting the central Gulf of Mexico in clockwise loops. Additional drifters deployed by the Coast Guard over the past few weeks (orange colors) are also shown. The colored balloons show the starting location of the drifters. Image credit: University of South Florida.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Friday, June 4, 2010.
Tropical Cyclone Phet unleashes heavy rains on Oman
Tropical Cyclone Phet hit the northern tip of Oman yesterday as a Category 2 storm, bringing torrential rains and killing at least two people. Masirah, Oman recorded sustained winds of 74 mph yesterday, and Sur, Oman on the northeast coast has received 3.25 inches of rain so far. Phet was the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was stronger. Phet has emerged from the coast of Oman this morning, but is likely to weaken over the next day due to increased wind shear. Phet should hit Pakistan as a tropical storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and serious flooding.
Next update
I'll probably have one update over the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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From my blog this morning:
" The system I have been watching over the western Gulf of Mexico continues to look rather tame. There are now thunderstorms going off with a weak vort max south of Louisiana, but the main piece of this energy split off to the west while it was in the Bay of Campeche, and so there is not much to this system. While I will watch it because these vort maxes can be mischievous at a fast pace, I do not expect development.
The main topic for the next week will be a tropical wave currently along 33W, which has the mark of a trouble-maker down the road in the Caribbean. I have been voicing the concern for a buildup of heat in the western Caribbean during the period of June 10th to June 20th, and the potential for mischief in that area. This tropical wave could be our first chance at that, as it is forecasted to lift northward and become independent of the ITCZ, crossing the Antilles Islands in 4-5 days. As this moves into the western Caribbean in 7-10 days, it will have to be watched closely as it interacts with the buildup of heat that will be occurring in the region ahead of it, and the TUTT may be in a position to ventilate the area."
i believe at this time last year we were at 5 or 6 so far
456 would be best to ask
thats he's baby
when it comes to waves
They seem to have upped the chances of development in the eastern Atlantic a bit. At least since I looked yesterday.
Over the great lakes of the United States.
Sorry - i've not exactly kept with the times since september.
Wasn't there Aiscat or something similar to that name?
thanks Levi
Vorticity is quite high.
ASCAT ( Advanced scatterometer)
Ascat
Already did. I watch them every day :)
I gotta go, later all.
Meanwhile I prefer the Eastern Pacific forecast wise.
This? Link
It'll pick up again hopefully.
12z.
Maybe we'll even get storms drifting south along the Gulf Stream!
I think we could get a new minimum lower than 2007.
So, based on this we can make some accurate assumptions, as follows
-- an increase of 200% in Trop. Waves so far.
should theoretically result in an increase of 200% in Storms-
Therefore a fair extrapolation would be-
2009 = 11 storms
2010 = 11 X 200% = 33 storms.
So, there you go.
heheheheh
Current Conditions
Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 13 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
93.4 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 67%
Dew Point: 81 °F
Wind: 1.0 mph from the South
Wind Gust: 5.8 mph
Pressure: 30.00 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 114 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 8 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 2100 ft
Scattered Clouds 2600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 3600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
Well that's within my range.
Maybe i'm just hopeful. Although I reckon Europe might get a heatwave like in 2003 again this year.
Wow! Could the oil spill be adding to the heat?
That'll be amusing if Avila or Franklin was doing the forecasting.
We have a similar set-up this year, but a heat wave like that will not occur if Eyjafjallajokull or Katla erupts, or if the Gulf Stream diverts west of Greenland again and fills up the Northwest Passage.
*By the way this is for 33132 zip code in downtown Miami.
89.0 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 84 °F
Wind: 10.0 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 10.0 mph
Pressure: 29.90 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 114 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 8 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2800 ft
Mostly Cloudy 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 14 ft
And I didn't show this one, I dunno about a 88 dewpoint...
89.8 °F
Clear
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 88 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph
Pressure: 30.06 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 125 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 13 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 12 ft
Lots of low 80s dewpoints around, none other over 84.
Remember Odile? "Odile fooled me like Odile fooled the prince".
AVN
Naner, naner, naner. Beat ya with that 125 heat index (but prolly not real)
And at least you guys have a little breeze to go with it...very still here.
Wasn't Bertha the earlest Cape Verde hurricane on record?
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FORTY-SEVEN
DEPRESSION, FORMER PHET (ARB02-2010)
20:30 PM IST June 6 2010
=======================================
At 15:00 PM UTC, Depression, Former Phet over northeast Arabian Sea moved east-northeastwards and crossed Pakistan coast close to south of Karachi between 1300 hrs and 1400 PM UTC. It lays centered now over Pakistan near 25.0N 68.5E, about 100 Kms east of Karachi, Pakistan and 220 Kms north-nortwest of Naliya, Gujarat.
The system would move east-northeastwards and weaken gradually.
Viewing: 3451 - 3501
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