Long range oil spill forecast
Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over through Tuesday, resulting in a continued threat of landfalling oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday through Tuesday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by Wednesday. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now predict a return to a southeasterly wind regime, which would bring the oil back over Louisiana by mid-June. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Long range oil spill outlook
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release yesterday showing 4-month model runs (Figure 1) of where the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might go. The model runs show that given typical ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, we can expect the oil to eventually affect most of the Florida Panhandle, Keys, and Florida East Coast, as well as coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Very little oil makes it to the West Florida "Forbidden Zone", where offshore-moving surface currents dominate. The oil may eventually affect three foreign countries: Mexico along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba near Havana, and the Bahamas in the Bimini Islands and along the western side of Grand Bahama Island. Once oil does get into the Loop Current, it will probably reach the coasts of France, Spain, and Portugal in about a year. The oil will be too dilute by then to be noticeable, though.
The present ocean current configuration in the Gulf features a newly formed Loop Current Eddy (dubbed "Franklin"), which will tend to capture the majority of oil that flows southwards from the Deepwater Horizon spill site. A plot of drifting buoys (drifters) launched into the Gulf May 19 - 24 (Figure 2) reveals how this clockwise-rotating eddy has been capturing southward-moving surface water. Eddy Franklin will move slowly west-southwest at 2 - 3 mph in the coming weeks. By August or September, the eddy will have moved far enough west that the Loop Current will be able to push northwards towards the spill location again, increasing the chances of oil getting into the Loop Current and being advected through the Florida Straits and up the U.S. Southeast Coast. Between now and mid-August, I doubt that a significant amount of oil will get into the Loop Current, unless a hurricane or tropical storm goes through the Gulf of Mexico. I put the odds of this happening by mid-August at 50%. The odds of a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico will increase sharply after mid-August, when the peak portion of hurricane season arrives. Past history shows a 95% chance of getting two or more named storms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons with above-normal activity.
Figure 1. Animation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showing one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean.
Figure 2. During the R/V Bellows 19-24 May 2010 Cruise into the Loop Current, drifters were dropped on the eastern edge of the Loop Current. These drifters have all been caught in Loop Current Eddy "Franklin", and are orbiting the central Gulf of Mexico in clockwise loops. Additional drifters deployed by the Coast Guard over the past few weeks (orange colors) are also shown. The colored balloons show the starting location of the drifters. Image credit: University of South Florida.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Friday, June 4, 2010.
Tropical Cyclone Phet unleashes heavy rains on Oman
Tropical Cyclone Phet hit the northern tip of Oman yesterday as a Category 2 storm, bringing torrential rains and killing at least two people. Masirah, Oman recorded sustained winds of 74 mph yesterday, and Sur, Oman on the northeast coast has received 3.25 inches of rain so far. Phet was the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was stronger. Phet has emerged from the coast of Oman this morning, but is likely to weaken over the next day due to increased wind shear. Phet should hit Pakistan as a tropical storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and serious flooding.
Next update
I'll probably have one update over the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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(I don't really know that...)
Close, the first vivid memory I have of a hurricane was in 1948 in Hollywood , FL. I remember our neighbors taking us around by boat, there was such flooding.
If a tornado strikes Peoria, many lives are at stake. That Image is from the NWS!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
815 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010
ILC143-060145-
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-100606T0145Z/
PEORIA IL-
815 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL PEORIA COUNTY
UNTIL 845 PM CDT...
AT 811 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTH OF BRIMFIELD...OR 15 MILES
WEST OF PEORIA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
LAW ENFORCEMENT AND SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED DAMAGE IN ELMWOOD.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEORIA...WEST PEORIA...KICKAPOO...NORWOOD AND ALTA.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 74 AND 91.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 474 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 3.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4083 8995 4084 8956 4068 8962 4075 8996
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 285DEG 36KT 4076 8986
$$
CHURCHILL
You are just now realizing how bad TWC sucks??
No ive known for a while, this was my last straw.
Hey, winter, how are you. Haven't seen any of your blogs lately. Still doing them?
1949. But verrrrrrrry good. She was on a TV show which aired most of the day. Very few shos in those days.
The color-scale has been exactly the same every time I looked at it all winter long, with 26C at yellow and 30C at the top of the scale. This is the first change of the year as far as I know.
If it was truly dynamic it wouldn't have let the images go so red (almost completely red on my first image)
There is no way to predict that.
NWUS53 KILX 060125
LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
825 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0825 PM TORNADO PEORIA 40.74N 89.61W
06/05/2010 PEORIA IL EMERGENCY MNGR
TORNADO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE PEORIA AIRPORT. TAKE SHELTER NOW!
&&
$$
JRP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
822 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010
ILC143-060145-
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-100606T0145Z/
PEORIA IL-
822 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL PEORIA COUNTY
UNTIL 845 PM CDT...
AT 820 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LARGE
CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HANNA CITY...OR 10
MILES WEST OF PEORIA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEORIA...WEST PEORIA...NORWOOD AND ALTA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST
RESORT... EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR
VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA.
&&
LAT...LON 4068 8963 4074 8986 4080 8984 4083 8956
4077 8959
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 285DEG 36KT 4076 8978
$$
CHURCHILL
An early start would be defined as getting our first named storm before July 10th, and in that case I believe we will.
Try WEEK in Peoria, last I heard there are two tornadoes now. Part of a family heading straight towards the 3rd largest metropolitan area in Illinois.
NWUS53 KILX 060133
LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
833 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0830 PM TORNADO PEORIA 40.74N 89.61W
06/05/2010 PEORIA IL EMERGENCY MNGR
TORNADO AT ROUTE 150 AND INTERSTATE 74. DAMAGE UNKNOWN BUT PROBABLE
&&
$$
JRP
NWUS53 KILX 060138
LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
838 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0831 PM TORNADO 7 W PEORIA 40.74N 89.74W
06/05/2010 PEORIA IL BROADCAST MEDIA
TORNADO AT HWY 116.
&&
$$
JRP
Good! They need to go back to the TWC Old ways! 24/7 of live weather shows....not crap!
No one has left, I was actually looking for some maps of the area and listening for the news, It is a very serious situation.
Yah allstar, and a tornado just cut through a city of 100,000 and metro of 300,000 while they played their crappy shows.
Good im glad, you guys had me worried lol.
Yes according to NWS, it cut across the interstate which is really bad. i have been to Peoria before and it is a very dense city.
Yeah, I remembered it being quite dense as well... This isn't going to be good when we start hearing the damage reports, though I doubt anything will be totally certain until daylight.
ILC063-099-105-060230-
/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0007.100606T0146Z-100606T0230Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
846 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN GRUNDY COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN LA SALLE COUNTY...
NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
* UNTIL 930 PM CDT
* AT 842 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CONFIRMED TORNADO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF WENONA...OR 7 MILES WEST OF
STREATOR. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
AT 840 PM CDT...SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT HAVE REPORTED A LARGE
CONFIRMED JUST WEST OF STREATOR.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DWIGHT AROUND 920 PM.
GARDNER AROUND 925 PM.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
RANSOM...KINSMAN...CAMPUS...EAST BROOKLYN AND SOUTH WILMINGTON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4122 8826 4095 8826 4102 8882 4121 8879
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 271DEG 39KT 4111 8891
$$
IZZI
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