Oil continues impacting Louisiana coast; storms for Caribbean and SE U.S. waters?
Light southeast to east winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Sunday, resulting in potential oiling of Louisiana shorelines from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. Clouds over the Gulf of Mexico have cleared, and we should get a good view late this afternoon on how far south the oil spill has penetrated into the Loop Current. Statements from NOAA and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite data imply that most of the oil that was pulled southwards to the northern boundary of the Loop Current is now caught in a counter-clockwise rotating eddy just to the north of the Loop Current. Some oil has escaped this eddy and is on its way south towards the Florida Keys. This tongue of oil consists of "numerous light sheens with some emulsified patties and streams," according to NOAA. I wish they'd provide more information about what the sensitivity of various ecosystems may be to oil at these concentrations. It would also be good to have more information about what the concentration of the toxic dispersants are in the surface waters of the spill, but I expect no one knows. The oil will grow more dilute as it travels the 500 miles to the Florida Keys. My present expectation is that the oil entering the Loop Current this week will cause only minor problems in the Keys next week. However, there is a lot of uncertainty about what the oil may do to the fragile Keys ecosystem. SAR imagery from last night and this morning continue to show a large plume of oil being drawn southeastward from the oil spill location into the northern boundary of the Loop Current. With winds expected to remain light over the coming week, I expect oil will continue to be drawn southwards into the Loop Current and the counter-clockwise rotating eddy just to its north. Much of the oil caught in this eddy may circulate around the eddy in 3 or so days, and potentially enter the Loop Current early next week. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is moving chaotically 10+ miles in a single day, making prediction difficult.
Figure 1. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:56am EDT May 20, 2010, by the Canadian Space Agency’s (CSA) RadarSat-1 satellite. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.
Figure 2. Latest oil trajectory forecast from NOAA for this Saturday.
Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
HYCOM ocean current forecasts from LSU
Potential serious rainfall threat to Haiti next week
Long-range forecasts from the NOGAPS model, and to a lesser extent, the ECMWF and GFS models, continue to predict an increase in moisture and decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean 4 - 6 days from now, leading to development of a tropical disturbance with heavy rains in the Western Caribbean early next week. A strong subtropical jet stream over the southern Gulf of Mexico will steer the disturbance to the north and east, and the potential exists for heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches to affect eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic in the Tuesday - Thursday time frame next week. It is possible that a tropical depression could form from this tropical disturbance, though most of the models indicate that high levels of wind shear will make this improbable.
Southeast U.S. coastal storm next week could become subtropical
A region of cloudiness and showers just east of the Bahama Islands will develop into a strong extratropical storm over the weekend. This storm is expected to move slowly northwestward towards the Southeast U.S. coast Sunday and Monday, and could bring 20 - 30 mph winds and heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina by Tuesday. While the storm will initially form in a region of high wind shear and be entirely extratropical, it will move into a region of lower wind shear in a gap between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to its south early next week. At that time, the low will be positioned near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and will have the opportunity to develop a shallow warm core and transition to a subtropical storm. The models are divided on whether the storm will eventually make landfall on the Southeast U.S. coast 6 - 7 days from now, and it is too early to offer odds on this occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will probably lead to northeasterly winds over the oil spill region Monday through Wednesday, keeping oil away from the coasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but pushing oil westwards towards Texas. Wunderblogger Weather456 has a more detailed discussion of the potential development of this system in his blog this morning.
Tornadoes and large hail pound Oklahoma
A significant severe weather outbreak occurred last night over Oklahoma and surrounding states, with 25 tornado reports, 8 reports of damaging winds, and 23 hail reports. Severe weather wunderblogger Dr. Rob Carver has the details in his wunderblog this morning. The Vortex2 field project had a perfect opportunity to intercept these tornadoes, since they were slow moving and occurred over relatively unpopulated regions. The University of Michigan students writing our Vortex2 featured blog will have an update when their schedule allows.
Figure 3. Baseball-sized hail pounds a suburban Oklahoma City swimming pool, making huge splashes, in this remarkable video. The action gets really intense about 90 seconds into the video.
I'll be back with a new post Friday.
Jeff Masters
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Effective May 15, the National Hurricane Center will implement important changes in some of its text and graphical products. It will also make some additions to its Web site and experimental products. This is part of a continuing effort at the National Hurricane Center to expand and enhance its level of service.
Changes:
1)
Watches and warnings for tropical storms and hurricanes along threatened coastal areas will be issued 12 hours earlier than in previous years. Tropical storm watches will be issued when tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within 48 hours. Tropical storm warnings will be issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours. Similar increases in lead-time will apply to hurricane watches and warnings.
2)
The format of the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory is changing. The most significant changes are:
o
The Public Advisory will be organized into sections. Within these sections, keywords will be used to assist the human eye and computer software to find specific information more readily.
o
The summary section of the advisory will move to the top of the product, immediately following the headline. The summary section will contain more information than it did previously.
o
Watch and warning information will be organized differently and be presented in list or bullet form.
3)
A summary section, identical to the one found in the Public Advisory, will be added to the Tropical Cyclone Update whenever storm information (e.g., position, intensity, movement, pressure, etc.) changes from the previous Advisory.
4)
The genesis forecasts for the risk of tropical cyclone development will be provided to nearest 10 percent, in both the text and graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks. In previous years, only risk categories (low/medium/high) were given.
5)
The National Weather Service and its National Hurricane Center will begin using the generic term "post-tropical" to refer to any system that no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone. Post-tropical cyclones can continue to carry heavy rains and strong winds. Some post-tropical cyclones will go on to become fully extratropical, that is, derive their energy from the temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses. Another type of post-tropical cyclone is the "remnant low", a weak system with limited thunderstorm activity and winds of less than tropical storm strength.
6)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale will become operational. The scale keeps the same wind speed ranges as the original Saffir-Simpson Scale for each of the five hurricane categories, but no longer ties specific storm surge and flooding effects to each category.
7)
The size of the tropical cyclone forecast cone will be adjusted. The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of imaginary circles placed along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc.). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The circle radii defining the cones in 2010 for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins are given in the table below.
Link
Who has the rights to the footage should you come to an unfortunate end...That would be worth alot of cash =P Seriously though? You're about as prepared as you can be. I think everyone is overlooking what you said yourself was one of your biggest fears: embedded "super gusts" and vorticies .... no telling how fast the wind can get from a very strong downburst or inside a tornado inside a cat 5 0.0
Immaculate creation: birth of the first synthetic cell
17:55 20 May 2010 by Ewen Callaway
For the first time, scientists have created life from scratch – well, sort of. Craig Venter's team at the J. Craig Venter Institute in Rockville, Maryland, and San Diego, California, has made a bacterial genome from smaller DNA subunits and then transplanted the whole thing into another cell. So what exactly is the science behind the first synthetic cell, and what is its broader significance?
What did Venter's team do?
The cell was created by stitching together the genome of a goat pathogen called Mycoplasma mycoides from smaller stretches of DNA synthesised in the lab, and inserting the genome into the empty cytoplasm of a related bacterium. The transplanted genome booted up in its host cell, and then divided over and over to make billions of M. mycoides cells.
Venter and his team have previously accomplished both feats – creating a synthetic genome and transplanting a genome from one bacterium into another – but this time they have combined the two.
"It's the first self-replicating cell on the planet that's parent is a computer," says Venter, referring to the fact that his team converted a cell's genome that existed as data on a computer into a living organism.
What can you do with a synthetic cell?
Venter's work was a proof of principle, but future synthetic cells could be used to create drugs, biofuels and other useful products. He is collaborating with Exxon Mobil to produce biofuels from algae and with Novartis to create vaccines.
"As soon as next year, the flu vaccine you get could be made synthetically," Venter says.
Ellington also sees synthetic bacteria as having potential as a scientific tool. It would be interesting, he says, to create bacteria that produce a new amino acid – the chemical units that make up proteins – and see how these bacteria evolve, compared with bacteria that produce the usual suite of amino acids. "We can ask these questions about cyborg cells in ways we never could before."
For the complete article go to Link.
CBS News (where I originally heard the story - 15 minutes ago) reported the discovery could also lead to producing organisms that eat oil...
Should of clarified. the colors indicate the level and possibility of impact by said systems either rain, wind or wave based on the latest model run, objective and subjective thinking.
Red stands for high possibility of being affected by system, purple is medium and yellow is low.
I heard of winds in the 200 mph range easily.
Oh ok thanks. :)
The important questions is how are the model veerifying on the current pattern? I know they will intialize ok but how about verification? So far not looking good to me.
11 Days
268 Hours
CBS News released an extended interview with Williams today, in which he describes in detail the explosion, subsequent fire and his escape from the rig.
Watch CBS News Videos Online
Back to the drawing board for me.........
(But yeah! It would give us something to look at LOL)
Could be 20 -50 mph. =)
True But don't we need it badly this is the driest May/year for that matter I can remember!
the NOGAPs image that Levi posted above shows the southern low being nasty over haiti 144hrs out.
You cannot be serious?
The models are verifying well..I dont see any model pushing back..the possible subtropical storm is not 144 hrs but genesis has already began. This is a real possibility here. Have you check the phase diagrams? The synoptic pattern? What are the chances that all the models are wrong? Look at the objective data. Give me the data which validates your point and I'll accept it respectfully.
Why isn't there a radar station on one of these oil rigs way out in the Gulf? It seems like it would be able to pick up a heck of a lot of info on developing storms, and I think the oil rig would be high enough above the water for it to work. Granted, a hurricane might destroy it but it seems like it would be well worth that risk in increased accuracy of hurricane forecasts.
Nope his verification is
its May + shear maps = no development
I had the ONLY damage in south alabama during Dennis (per the insurance claims people who didnt believe it at first) .. you could see the tornado path ... many trees down, crushed the roof in. Scary part? Dennis was much "weaker" than we expected and I was outside dancing in the "breeze" and rain .. 1/8 of a mile away ... I Never knew it had happened until I walked down the street home. Luckily no one was home.
That's an illusion because of how long this system may linger if it stalls off the SE coast. The system is already developing ENE of Nassau. The only timing question here is when exactly it becomes subtropical and if it gets named.
ECMWF 12z run valid May 25th, issued 3 days ago on the 17th:
ECMWF 12z run valid May 25th, issued today, the 20th:
There is no pushing back of the timeline here. In fact today's run is farther along on the 25th than the run 3 days ago was.
I should clarify. I do not think they will reach TD status. I do think the Lows are legit but for some reason I just am not buying the intensity. Will they be major rain producers? Sure. Do a lot of the models agree? For the most part however vary slightly in location and intensity. I will take a look harder. I have not really dug deep into them so maybe I am off on this. Give me a few and I will check verification again.
So hybrid low will start to truly "appear" in +54 hours based on GFS. Which would be Sunday.
I wouldn't be surprised lol.
Maybe they will wait to Dec 1, show 100% skill.
This year? better make that Jan 1 2011. =P
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