Oil enters the Loop Current and is headed to the Florida Keys
Satellite imagery today from NASA's MODIS instrument confirms that a substantial tongue of oil has moved southeast from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and entered the Gulf of Mexico's Loop Current. The Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward just south of the Florida Keys (where it is called the Florida Current), and then along the west side of the western Bahamas. Here, the waters of the Loop Current flow northward along the U.S. coast and become the Gulf Stream. Once oil gets into the Loop Current, the 1 - 2 mph speed of the current should allow the oil to travel the 500 miles to the Florida Keys in 10 - 20 days. Portions of the Loop Current flow at speed up to 4 mph, so the transport could be just 4 - 5 days. It now appears likely that the first Florida beaches to see oil from the spill will be in the Lower Florida Keys, not in the Panhandle.
Figure 1. Satellite image of the oil spill taken at 12:40 EDT Monday May 17, 2010. The location of the Loop Current is superimposed. Image credit: University of Wisconsin and NASA.
Why is oil getting into the Loop Current?
The winds over the oil spill location are offshore out of the northwest today, and offshore winds will continue intermittently through Wednesday, which should allow a substantial amount of oil to enter the Loop Current. The major reason oil is moving southwards is because of the instability of the currents in the Gulf of Mexico. The Loop Current is not a stable feature, and tends to surge northwards and southwards in a chaotic fashion, and in response to changes in the prevailing winds. Over the past week, chaotic behavior of the Loop Current and a clockwise-rotating eddy just to its north, just south of the oil spill location, have combined to bring a current of southward-moving surface water to the oil spill location. As strong on-shore winds from the southeast slackened this past weekend, oil has been drawn southward into the Loop Current. The latest NOAA trajectory forecasts failed to anticipate the movement of the oil into the Loop Current. The latest surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model show that oil could continue pouring into the Loop Current for most of the rest of the week. It is highly uncertain how diluted the oil might get on its voyage to northwestern Cuba and the Florida Keys this week, but the possibility for a major ecological disaster in the fragile Keys ecosystem cannot be ruled out. Southeast to east winds of 10 - 15 knots are expected to develop late this week and extend into early next week, which may be strong enough to impose a surface current that will shut off the flow of oil into the Loop Current by Friday or Saturday.
Figure 2. Forecast made at 8pm EDT Sunday May 16, 2010, of the Gulf of Mexico currents by NOAA's HYCOM model. A persistent southward flowing surface current is predicted to occur this week between the oil spill location (red dot) and the Loop Current. Image credit: NOAA.
Likely areas of impact
Based on a study of 194 floating probes released into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico during a 1-year study in the 1990s (Figure 3), the west coast of Florida from Tampa Bay southwards to the Everglades is at minimal risk of receiving oil from surface currents. There is a "forbidden zone" off the southwest Florida coast where the shape of the coast, bottom configuration, and prevailing winds all act to create upwelling and surface currents that tend to take water away from the coast. This study implies that the greatest risk of land impacts by surface oil caught in the Loop Current is along the ocean side of the Florida Keys, and along the coast of Southeast Florida from Miami to West Palm Beach. Eddies breaking away from the Gulf Stream would also likely bring oil to northwest Cuba, the western Bahamas, and the U.S. East Coast as far north as Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, though at lesser concentrations. Southwest Florida cannot rest entirely, though--the "forbidden zone" is only true for surface waters, and there is onshore flow below the surface. Since recent ship measurements have detected substantial plumes of oil beneath the surface, southwest Florida might be at risk if one of these plumes gets entrained into the Loop Current. These subsurface plumes were also detected by current probes launched into the oil spill on May 8 by one of NOAA's hurricane hunter aircraft, according to one scientist I spoke to at last week's AMS hurricane conference. There are plans for the Hurricane Hunters to go out again tomorrow and drop more probes into the spill to attempt to get a better handle on where the oil is and where the currents are taking it.
Figure 3. Paths of 194 floating probes released into the yellow-outlined area in the northeast Gulf of Mexico between February 1996 and February 1997 as part of a study by the Mineral Management Service (MMS). The probes were all launched into waters with depth between 20 and 60 meters. Image credit: Yang, H., R.H. Weisberga, P.P. Niilerb, W. Sturgesc, and W. Johnson, 1999, Lagrangian circulation and forbidden zone on the West Florida Shelf, Continental Shelf Research Volume 19, Issue 9, July 1999, Pages 1221-1245 doi:10.1016/S0278-4343(99)00021-7
When will a Loop Current eddy break off?
Every 6 - 11 months, the looped portion of the Loop Current cuts off into a clockwise-rotating ring of water that then slowly drifts west-southwest towards Texas. When one of these rings breaks off at the peak of hurricane season, it provides a source of heat energy capable of providing fuel for rapid intensification of any hurricanes that might cross over. The Loop Current is not predicted to shed an ring over the next month, as predicted by the latest 1-month forecast from the U.S. Navy. However, the last eddy broke off in July of 2009, ten month ago, and it is unusual for the Loop Current to go more than eleven months without shedding an eddy. I expect we'll see the Loop Current shed an eddy in July or August, just in time to pose the maximum threat for hurricane season. According to an interesting February 2004 article published by offshore-engineer.com, reliable forecasts of these currents and eddies are not available yet. Keep in mind that surface currents are largely driven by winds, and wind forecasts are not reliable out more than about 10 days.
References
Yang, H., R.H. Weisberga, P.P. Niilerb, W. Sturgesc, and W. Johnson, 1999, Lagrangian circulation and forbidden zone on the West Florida Shelf, Continental Shelf Research Volume 19, Issue 9, July 1999, Pages 1221-1245 doi:10.1016/S0278-4343(99)00021-7.
Oil spill resources
NOAA trajectory forecasts
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
HYCOM ocean current forecasts from LSU
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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just curious as of what makes you think the next 2 seasons after this will be worse
Update on our "Arlington, TX Cloud-burst". In 1 hour, we have received 2.75" of rain. Our backyard now has a 30 x 40 foot pond, under about a half of foot of water. At least it was a warm rain!! Went wading in the yard, the water is mild.
"Trop storm- knocks over a beer bottle
cat 1- knocks over a six pack
cat 2- knocks over a case
cat 3- blows away a keg
cat 4- knocks over a semi-truck full of beer
cat 5- blows away semi-truck full of beer
Not taking storm surge into account, obviously..."
Everyone needs this for the Tropical Season....
I enjoying posting there also. There are alot of people from Iceland who blog there. Unfortunately, the majority of their posts are in Icelandic tongue, so it does me no good. I can use Firefox to translate articles, but the videos, we need "Grothar" (a fellow WU blogger who speaks Icelnadic) to translate for us.
Hurricane of '38
"The Hurricane of '38" is recalled by survivors of the storm that devastated Rhode Island and eastern Long Island, claiming nearly 700 lives and destroying 4500 homes. Included: archival and home-movie footage.
duration: 60 min
details: [CC] [STEREO]
genre: Parents Picks
A series of upper level disturbances will pass in close proximity to our area between today and Wednesday. These conditions, in addition to local heating effects, will create an unstable weather pattern from today until the early part of Wednesday.
These conditions will aid in the development of more showers and thunderstorms. Since they have the potential to be heavy at times, flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas is very likely. In addition saturation of soils has made some areas unstable therefore increasing the potential for mudslides and falling rocks.
Since the beginning of May the DDM weather instruments in Road Town have already recorded over 6.47 inches of rain a figure which has surpassed all rain data totals since January.
At this time no watches or warnings have been issued. However residents and visitors should pay close attention to the weather conditions in case of any sudden changes.
The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is monitoring the situation and will continue to provide updates where necessary. Please visit the DDM´s website at www.bviddm.com
We are at the low end of the Tropical Cyclon cycle as you can see at the graphic below! Look at the busy year 2005 as you can see it took us 2-3 years to peak....if we start up on the cycle it will take us another 2-3 years to reach a peak again....it just does not go straight up as the graphic shows.
it all depends on when and where the storm develops. If a negative NAO persists and a neutral-weak enso takes place then a majority of the tracks will head towards land and not out to see. Where it will go specifically depends on what the specific conditions are when the storm forms
thanks I guess that makes sense... but you never know that info only represents 30 years of data
I can see where your coming from
the only time i don't root for the rays is if they are playing the marlins
Hey,i hope you got some rain from that?
Rain has started here,almost 4 inches since friday but it should dry out by Wednesday.
Good to hear,it seems most of the island got some today as well thanks to the trades.
Hi DDR, we have had a very wet May so far! Was at the beach on Saturday and the water was amazingly warm, much more like July or August.
May 20th
You gotta be freaking kidding me, nuff said.
Our best chance for anything in the near future is the hybrid system off the east coast.
Well, at least I was able to discuss with her about why I don't use the AC in the car. We have a responsibility to protect the environment and it begins with us. BTW, the hybrid rocks, crossing 47.7 MPG today (figured out how to get it to get 55 MPG consistently).... a two ton car!
Signed up for a solar PV pilot today (want to try it before going whole hog). Fixed my solar water heater backup problems... get this... use went from 34 CCF down to 7 CCF last month owing the the STUPID backup that the manufacturer designed for that STUPID solar water heating system.
The only proper way to protest the oil spill is to lower our energy use.
I work for an energy company with GOM operations... BPs actions (or rather lack thereof) were egregious and needed to be seriously punished.
But in the end we have to take action ourselves.
Pressure at 1007 MB
Sometimes its best to look at whats happening versus the models
12 mm on Sat/Sun.
I am not complaining though...
Had a boomer last summer. One of the worst thunderstorms i've ever been in. It was thundering louder than I can ever remember one after another. It scared my dog to the point that he jumped on me for comfort in utter fear. All 60 pounds of him.
BTW, I have been viewing several resources on a 300' thick layer of submerged congealed emulsified oil that may already be in the loop current. Along with low Oxygen content water that could be indicative of oil eating bacteria in play. I guess I am asking for verification of this from you all.......if at all!
Don't be scared. The chances of getting hit by lightning are nil. Also, on the bright side, should you be the rare case of a strike...you're 320 feet closer than those on the ground, so it will happen faster. Like a sharper guillotine.
LOL, you got rain. Its been raining here almost every 6 hrs for the last week. A sign of things to come after a dry 2009.
Well, you cant be more reassured than that...........
LOL
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