Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Over 40+mph wind gusts here in N Mobile county! I cant believe we still have power!

342. AstroHurricane001 6:52 PM AKST on March 01, 2010

Astro...

Climategate....Al Gore...these people have a lot to gain from promoting GW. Think of people like Joe Bastardi, Joe D'leo, Don Easterbrook...how much do you think they stand to gain from opposing GW? Next to nothing....follow the money...they're not getting any of it...the AGW people are. In that light, who are people with common sense going to trust more? The political activists and scientists with an agenda? Or the people honestly devoting their lives to science and reporting their findings for the betterment of the world.

Anyway I think we've all had our fill of this stuff tonight.

Quoting Grothar:


Ha! How you doing Atmo??? Hate when the blog starts getting civil.

Doing lovely, myself. Been looking at global buoy info a little more.

You guys realize how many drifting buoys we have on the planet, yet, we see very few through our usual dissemination points? (such as NDBC...maybe 15 drifting reports, max, at any given time)

Check this out (yeah, a lot are SST only):

That's a heck of a lot more buoy platforms than we get at ndbc, and this plot doesn't include any that we do.

Wouldn't it be nice to be able to access sea level pressure from those that measure it in the path of TCs without having to delve into WMO decoding? I agree.

(you can get these, though with a delay, at sailwx.info)

Only problem: Many of these report to polar orbiting satellites. They have to wait for line of sight and eventually give an update possibly up to 2 hours old. Not a continuous update like most of our moored buoys.

Yes, Patrap. It all comes down to less reliance on oil, higher fuel efficiency, more mass transportation.
Personally, I prefer the bicycle and my motorcycle to anything. I also don't run my heat in the winter, etc. though I do use a space heater in my office.
Raising personal consciousness of how each person can use less energy is where it has to start. And from there, we can and will actually accomplish something.

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


IPCC says (your quote) "1F warming by 2011"

Now as i posted the latest sat image


We have now 1.03F just to compare LAST YEAR!!!! ... pretty accurate if you ask me. And as you can see it undermines the prediction already in the start of 2010.

Pretty scary development.

http://climateprogress.org/2010/03/01/accuweather%e2%80%99s-joe-bastardi-admits-earth- continues-war mest-winter-since-satellite-measurements-started-and-feb-should-be-warmest-on-record/

Now, just one thing. Those measurements are based on brightness temperature which are an indirect measurement method.

Quoting Skepticall:


Yea I can't find what he was talking about on his own link so I'm going to go with it he made it up for right now.

Next time, just click "find" and search for "2.2". :)

Quoting Skepticall:
No reply back to me Astro?

Sorry about that, it took a long time to reply to all the arguing.

Quoting SevereHurricane:


LOL! 19F rise by 2100? That is preposterous! Whats sad is that our tax payer money is going straight to the fools who run this BS.

Not preposterous with all the feedbacks, but the water vapor feedback was shown to be currently negative so you never know.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


earthquake 5 or greater s cen asia

And another one in Luzon, Phillippines! What is going on?! I need to write a blog on this STAT, but I only have two minutes of computer time left.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya know this is all becoming just to much

Too much debate, or too much information?

No more posts by me for today, though I'll read the rest. See y'all (no Southern accent) later!

Quoting Chicklit:
Florida doesn't want oil mined in the Gulf because of the pollution. I don't know how long the Alaskan payments have been going on, but long enough to become part of a family's annual income they are counting on. That's all I was saying. I cannot for the life of me figure out why else a smart young lad like Levi would be skeptical about global warming when every single reputable meteorologist and environmental expert in the world thinks otherwise. I've gone down the list of "skeptics" and find everything but those who specialize in the field and actually know what they're talking about.

I suppose my reputation precedes me...
:-(

Seriously, you've never read with Lindzen or Christy or D'Aleo had to say?

Quoting AstroHurricane001:
No more posts by me for today, though I'll read the rest. See y'all (no Southern accent) later!

See ya Astro. You're a hero.

These winds remind me of a strong tropical storm! This is stronger than any storm that passed thru here in 2009 hurricane season!

Windiest its been in a while here on the west side!

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya know this is all becoming just to much


Too much debate, or too much information?
Action: Quote | Ignore User

too much arguing.

Quoting atmoaggie:

Doing lovely, myself. Been looking at global buoy info a little more.

You guys realize how many drifting buoys we have on the planet, yet, we see very few through our usual dissemination points? (such as NDBC...maybe 15 drifting reports, max, at any given time)

Check this out (yeah, a lot are SST only):


Wouldn't it be nice to be able to access sea level pressure from those that measure it in the path of TCs without having to delve into WMO decoding? I agree.

Only problem: Many of these report to polar orbiting satellites. They have to wait for line of sight and eventually give an update possibly up to 2 hours old. Not a continuous update like most of our moored buoys.

Didn't realize there were that many there. See the problem the Aliens had in "Independence Day" with "line of sight" problems.

I would use "-v 2" to
the dcgrib2 decoder entries on the WMO for us to see they could them into real time. That delay does not make sense. You could be on to something with this.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Windiest its been in a while here on the west side!

Its going to get worse for you later. It started out as windy here and then accuweather read a gust at 42mph at 9:45pm!

Here's the scoop on Lindzen:
Iris hypothesis
Main article: Iris hypothesis
Lindzen hypothesized that the Earth may act like an infrared iris; increased sea surface temperature in the tropics would result in reduced cirrus clouds and thus more infrared radiation leakage from Earth's atmosphere.[7] This hypothesis suggests a negative feedback which would counter the effects of CO2 warming by lowering the climate sensitivity. Satellite data from CERES has led researchers investigating Lindzen's theory to conclude that the Iris effect would instead warm the atmosphere.[8][9]

Ive been listening for possible tornadoes! Alabama power did thier job out here!

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya know this is all becoming just to much


Too much debate, or too much information?
Action: Quote | Ignore User

too much arguing.

Come on Keeper, that is what makes life interesting. If we didn't debate, we wouldn't learn or grow. Haven't you found the past few months entertaining at least?

Here's John Christy:
Status and views
Christy was a lead author for the 2001 report by the IPCC[4] and the US CCSP report Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere - Understanding and Reconciling Differences.[5] Christy helped draft and signed the American Geophysical Union statement on climate change.[6]

In an interview with National Public Radio about the new American Geophysical Union (AGU) statement, he said: "It is scientifically inconceivable that after changing forests into cities, turning millions of acres into irrigated farmland, putting massive quantities of soot and dust into the air, and putting extra greenhouse gases into the air, that the natural course of climate has not changed in some way."[6]
In October 2007 Christy gave a lecture at Auburn University in which he reviewed areas of the global warming debate that he deems most significant and offered his evaluation of them.[7]

While he supports the AGU declaration and is convinced that human activities are one cause of the global warming that has been measured, Christy is "still a strong critic of scientists who make catastrophic predictions of huge increases in global temperatures and tremendous rises in sea levels."[6]

So he says yes, definitely, we are changing the planet, but not to the extent that scientists claim. Big whoop.

Quoting Grothar:


Didn't realize there were that many there. See the problem the Aliens had in "Independence Day" with "line of sight" problems.

I would use "-v 2" to
the dcgrib2 decoder entries on the WMO for us to see they could them into real time. That delay does not make sense. You could be on to something with this.

While you are now scaring me a little...it isn't put out in grib, that I know of.

The NCEP decoder for the WMO FM-18 is dcdrbu

Quoting Patrap:


Worked offshore for 3 years and well...built 3 Oil reinfires before I was 20 in the Late 70s.

Ive seen the Damage done on both Land and sea.

But I dont know if you know this,..but them coal fired Plant s your running and those Vehicles driving up and down yer Highways 24/7 365 may be polluting more than any Oil Spill ever recorded Dear.

But I'd hate to burden you with the numbers.
We gots plenty of them data types here all the time.

What you really dont want is those rigs down in Miami and off Orlando for all those tourist dollars to see.

But one can see Many from Destin and Pensacola already.

LOL

Also business owners along the beaches would lose customers if there was an oil spill. I mean who would want to swim in a pool of oil?! yuck. And I'm sure it would cause a distraction when they start working and have to place their equipment up and down the coastline. Also we always run the risk of damage to oil rigs from hurricanes that spike up the prices of gasoline. I believe it's more efficient to drill onland than offshore, not as much environmental risks and detrement to the Florida tourism industry.

Quoting Grothar:


Come on Keeper, that is what makes life interesting. If we didn't debate, we wouldn't learn or grow. Haven't you found the past few months entertaining at least?

nothing wrong with debate good info learned lots but sometimes it just becomes too much but its all good lots of good people here even if they are for or against GW

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Keeper is this low similar to the strength of a Tropical depression or storm because it sure does look and sound like one?

D'Aleo's fundamental premise is that although there is a global warming trend there is not a strong causal relationship between that trend and carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere. Instead D'Aleo contends that the global warming trend correlates more closely with other phenomena such as solar activity and ocean current oscillations.

On October 20, 2006 D'Aleo registered the domain name for ICECAP, a website challenging human-induced global warming. [2]

There you go. Got any more?
It is his opinion that...etc.
Where's the scientific basis?
Where's the peer reviewed articles?

Quoting Chicklit:
Here's the scoop on Lindzen:
Iris hypothesis
Main article: Iris hypothesis
Lindzen hypothesized that the Earth may act like an infrared iris; increased sea surface temperature in the tropics would result in reduced cirrus clouds and thus more infrared radiation leakage from Earth's atmosphere.[7] This hypothesis suggests a negative feedback which would counter the effects of CO2 warming by lowering the climate sensitivity. Satellite data from CERES has led researchers investigating Lindzen's theory to conclude that the Iris effect would instead warm the atmosphere.[8][9]

It that all? Wiki doesn't cover him better than that? That is lame. You should look into what the dude writes.

Quoting atmoaggie:

While you are now scaring me a little...it isn't put out in grib, that I know of.

The NCEP decoder for the WMO FM-18 is dcdrbu

Are you sure about that? Really? I would check again if I were you.

Its going to get worse for you later. It started out as windy here and then accuweather read a gust at 42mph at 9:45pm!

Pensacola airport recorded a 47mph gust around the same time. Rainfall is now over 3 inches!

Quoting Chicklit:
D'Aleo's fundamental premise is that although there is a global warming trend there is not a strong causal relationship between that trend and carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere. Instead D'Aleo contends that the global warming trend correlates more closely with other phenomena such as solar activity and ocean current oscillations.

On October 20, 2006 D'Aleo registered the domain name for ICECAP, a website challenging human-induced global warming. [2]

There you go. Got any more?
It is his opinion that...etc.
Where's the scientific basis?
Where's the peer reviewed articles?

Depends on where you look...the 3 I listed probably have a hundred peer-reviewed papers in the mainstream journals. But if you only want to see what you want to see, well, I cannot help you.

(Really, where are you getting the cherry-picked, scripted responses?)

Lindzen hypothesizes that global warming may lead to global cooling. Puhleese.
Yes if we spew enough CO2 into the atmosphere we will cool the planet. I think Dr. Masters covered that bogus theory in a blog about a month or two ago.

Quoting Grothar:


Are you sure about that? Really? I would check again if I were you.

I am certain the ARGOS buoys are in FM-18...haven't confirmed that these conform to the standard, yet. If you have something making you so certain, do please, share?

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nothing wrong with debate good info learned lots but sometimes it just becomes too much but its all good lots of good people here even if they are for or against GW

I know what you mean Keeper; one reason I have stayed off much of the time. It just gets a little sickening sometimes. I was being a little sarcastic back there. You probably didn't notice because as you know, I am very rarely sarcastic. LOL

Quoting VTG:
Its going to get worse for you later. It started out as windy here and then accuweather read a gust at 42mph at 9:45pm!

Pensacola airport recorded a 47mph gust around the same time. Rainfall is now over 3 inches!

Its coming in bursts now and seems to be slacking off at times. I havent heard that steady of wind power in some time!

Quoting Chicklit:
Lindzen hypothesizes that global warming may lead to global cooling. Puhleese.
Yes if we spew enough CO2 into the atmosphere we will cool the planet. I think Dr. Masters covered that bogus theory in a blog about a month or two ago.

Lindzen debunked again: New scientific study finds his paper downplaying dangers of human-caused warming is “seriously in error”
Trenberth: The flaws in Lindzen-Choi paper "have all the appearance of the authors having contrived to get the answer they got."

Consistently being wrong and consistently producing one-sided analyses that are quickly debunked in the literature should lead scientific journals and the entire scientific community (and possibly the media) to start ignoring your work.

But when you are one of the last remaining “serious” professional scientists spreading global warming disinformation who retains a (nano)ounce of credibility because you are associated with a major university — M.I.T. — and your name is Richard Lindzen, apparently you can just keep publishing and repeating the same crap over and over and over again.

It’s not just that Lindzen’s popular disinformation tracts have been widely debunked — see RealClimate here. Or that his one remaining big idea — that clouds are negative feedback — has been refuted in the literature [see Science: “Clouds Appear to Be Big, Bad Player in Global Warming,”an amplifying feedback (sorry Lindzen and fellow deniers)]. That idea of course meant ignored the myriad observations that climate impacts are occurring faster, not slower, than the models had predicted, and that therefore the multiple strong amplifying feedbacks are overwhelming whatever few week negative feedbacks occur in the climate system — see Study: Water-vapor feedback is “strong and positive,” so we face “warming of several degrees Celsius” (and below).

At the Heartland conference of climate-change disinformers last year, Lindzen went from disinformation to defamation as he smeared the reputation of one of the greatest living climate scientists, Wallace Broecker (see “Shame on Richard Lindzen, MIT’s uber-hypocritical anti-scientific scientist“).

But still his shoddy work manages to make it through the peer review process of a few journals, and the antiscience crowd eat it up and regurgitates it over the blogosphere like a toddler with H1N1. His latest nonsense is about to be thoroughly eviscerated in the literature, and RealClimate his multiple posts on how flawed Lindzen’s analysis was and how the peer review process failed. You should start with “Lindzen and Choi Unraveled” by climate scientists John Fasullo, Kevin Trenberth and Chris O’Dell:

A recent paper by Lindzen and Choi in GRL (2009) (LC09) purported to demonstrate that climate had a strong negative feedback and that climate models are quite wrong in their relationships between changes in surface temperature and corresponding changes in outgoing radiation escaping to space. This publication has been subject to a considerable amount of hype, for instance apparently “[LC09] has absolutely, convincingly, and irrefutably proven the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming to be completely false.” and “we now know that the effect of CO2 on temperature is small, we know why it is small, and we know that it is having very little effect on the climate”. Not surprisingly, LC09 has also been highly publicized in various contrarian circles.

Our initial reading of their article had us independently asking, how we could have missed such explicit evidence of the cloud feedback as shown in LC09? Why would such a significant finding have gone undiscovered when these feedbacks are widely studied and recognised as central to the projections of climate change? We discovered these common concerns at a meeting last year and then teamed up to address these questions.

With the hype surrounding the manuscript, one would think that the article provides a sound, rock solid basis for a reduced climate sensitivity. However, our examination of the study’s methods demonstrates that this is not the case. In an article in press (Trenberth et al. 2010 (sub. requ.), hereafter TFOW), we show that LC09 is gravely flawed and its results are wrong on multiple fronts. These are the major issues we found:

The LC09 results are not robust….

LC09 misinterpret air-sea interactions in the tropics….

More robust methods show no discrepancies between models and observations….

LC09 have compared observations to models prescribed with incomplete forcings….

LC09 incorrectly compute the climate sensitivity.
http://climateprogress.org/2010/01/11/science-lindzen-debunked-again-positive-negative-feedbacks-cl ouds-tropics/

LOL

If thats a prequei to hurricane season---- Im leaving! LOL

Quoting atmoaggie:

I am certain the ARGOS buoys are in FM-18...haven't confirmed that these conform to the standard, yet. If you have something making you so certain, do please, share?

Well, from memory, but if they are using the NCEP Decoder, they would have to use two different Fortran arrays. Correct? In order to keep the two types of data in order, what would they use? They would have to return data in Celcius and Farenheit, therefore the mnemonic used would be TEMPC. Just follow that logic.

NHC needs to name this storm!

Quoting stormsurge39:
Keeper is this low similar to the strength of a Tropical depression or storm because it sure does look and sound like one?

similar but yet no just a strong ULL with a strong spin to it

Quoting stormsurge39:
Keeper is this low similar to the strength of a Tropical depression or storm because it sure does look and sound like one?

strong ull thats it winds similar to TD force but only in gusts

Quoting stormsurge39:
NHC needs to name this storm!

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
similar but yet no just a strong ULL with a strong spin to it strong ull thats it winds similar to TD force but only in gusts

Thanks

Quoting stormsurge39:
NHC needs to name this storm!

'

It does not have winds of tropical strom strength so NO THEY DONT

Think I'll just sit here and continue watching Anthony Bordain. :)

Quoting doabarrelroll:
'

It does not have winds of tropical strom strength so NO THEY DONT

Being sarcastic. Sheesh

From the 7 PM NHC DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N93W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N94W TO 20N95W.
A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EASTWARD ACROSS SE LOUISIANA TO 30N86W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT MAINLY N OF 22N WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA.
WRAP AROUND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS EAST TEXAS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 94W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NE GULF WATERS AND ALSO PROVIDE A LARGE AREA OF NW TO N WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

Its coming in bursts now and seems to be slacking off at times. I havent heard that steady of wind power in some time!

The system seems to be stronger here than what the models were showing, although it may have been a little further north than what they were expecting.

200mb upper air data

Last month the driest Feb in 140 years
05:55 AM Mar 02, 2010
SINGAPORE - A new record has been set: February was the driest month ever for Singapore in 140 years.

According to the National Environment Agency (NEA), just 6.3mm of rain fell, the least in a single month since records began to be kept in 1869.

February also saw the hottest day so far, with the mercury hitting 35°C last Friday.

Those hoping for cool reprieve may have to wait. Notwithstanding passing showers in some areas yesterday, the first half of this month is expected to be mainly dry, with rainfall below average for most parts of the island, said the NEA.

Temperatures from today until Thursday are expected to reach 34°C.

The NEA said February is traditionally one of the driest months. Historically, the driest Februaries prior to this were in 1968 and 2005, when 8.4 mm of rain fell.

But the months ahead promise an extended heatwave.

March and April generally mark the drier tail-end of the of the north-east monsoon season, noted climate researcher Matthias Roth of the National University of Singapore.

And with the El Nino effect expected to last till May, Associate Professor Roth said the net effect would be "relatively dry, warm conditions for the coming couple of months".

For now, Singaporeans say they are beating the heat by downing cold drinks, swimming more, dressing lighter and turning on the air-conditioner.

http://www.todayonline.com/Singapore/EDC100302-0000097/Last-month-the-driest-Feb-in-140-years

The Gulf system is racing off to the east will probably be here before rush hour, with a squall line that might warrant a severe t-storm or tornado watches, I guess leave work early as we all know how fast the rains fall in Florida. Those kids are going to get soaked waiting for their busses.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


200mb upper air data

Whats the orange say, i cant read it!

1041 PM EST MON MAR 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...A SQUALL LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE.
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN...A LOW BUT NOTEWORTHY THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO EXISTS. IF THEY DO OCCUR...THEY WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME RATHER STRONG AND LONGER TRACKED.
PLEASE BE ADVISED...SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED BEFORE SUNRISE.

Quoting Grothar:


Well, from memory, but if they are using the NCEP Decoder, they would have to use two different Fortran arrays. Correct? In order to keep the two types of data in order, what would they use? They would have to return data in Celcius and Farenheit, therefore the mnemonic used would be TEMPC. Just follow that logic.

Thanks!

G'Nite, all.
Stay civil...

ok I'm out for the night.... Everyone needs to play nice..... Although I hate too cause we just had another gust of 32MPH wind here, from what my Weather center had read..... and stormsurge I am surprised we have not lost power yet too..... Heck I think we lose power if it blows in MO....

Have a Great Nite....

Taco :0)

Quoting PcolaDan:
Think I'll just sit here and continue watching Anthony Bordain. :)

LOL -- Jay Leno started back at 11:35 by doing a "Wizard of Oz" bit -- he's glad to be back at home after being in a strange place!