Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:21 PM GMT op 01 maart 2010 | +3 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Most seems to be out over water now. Was kinda strobe lightish little bit ago here.
Hello Tc, and first of all welcome to WU :) It's not always heated GW debate in here, just when there's nothing else to discuss.
Now I want to make it clear that I'm not an expert in things like chemistry so I can't say with certainty what might happen to the oceans due to pollution. I have yet to see something suggesting that a polluted ocean would be unable to cool down...all I've seen concern about is dying fish and ecosystems. I obviously agree this is bad and as I've said before I strongly support all the efforts being made to take advantage of clean energy and reduce our negative impact on the environment.
Also, CO2 is not a poison, it's a trace gas needed for life, and an increase in its levels helps plant growth. The global warmists themselves preach that the earth used to be far warmer with likely no ice caps and up to 11 times more CO2 in the atmosphere than we have right now. Well we're here aren't we? Life didn't end during that kind of climate. In fact the earth thrived according to geological records. So who's to say how much CO2 is too much? Who's to say what Earth's "ideal" average temperature is supposed to be? All we've been able to observe is our short little period of history that we've had the technology necessary to observe correctly.
Furthermore, people forget our "emissions" are comprised of far more than just CO2. Again CO2 is not a poison, but many poisons are released by the burning of fossil fuels. And again I'm all for cleaning that up and not ruining our environment, but as far as CO2 goes, I'll leave it with a quote from Joe Bastardi. To believe in Global Warming, then what you have to believe is "that the sun plus the oceans plus the volcanic activity plus natural reversal has less effect than the yearly human contribution equal to the width of a hair on a one-kilometer bridge of a trace gas needed for life."
GOM 120 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast Model
Exiting snow storm a tad warm core thanks to the gulf stream
Made the image of the day
(And he is what? 20? This is coming from a guy with a little formal education in the subject and in his mid-30s. LOL!)
So to say we dont know what the past climate was is wrong at best.
Pollen determines species and Temperature regimes for the given samplings as well.
This is a test ice core drilling at the Ohio State University's Byrd Polar Research Center. This drill accompanies scientists around to world to drill cores from glaciers. These cores are analyzed and can tell us about Earth's climate thousands of years ago. Filmed by COSI Team Member Michael Forrester using a Flip video camera. Join us at COSI for a celebration of the International Polar Year the weekend of February 27-March 1, 2009.
It's a mature extratropical cyclone that has gone into warm-seclusion, in other words it's shallow warm-core, similar to a subtropical storm. It is a somewhat common occurrence in very large and mature winter storms.
Taco :0)
For recent and yearly sampling.
Seasonal Ice Zone Observing Network (SIZONET)
Ice cores are regularly taken at designated landfast ice sites in Barrow (mass balance site) and Wales (stable ice1 km off town) throughout the ice-year and also at various other times and locations coinciding with the different field components and observations. Through analyzing salinity profiles, ice cores reveal information about the ice's growth history. Physical characteristics, such as entrained sediment and superimposed ice layers, reveal information about the environmental conditions under which the ice grew and evolved. Rafting of ice layers, a process significantly contributing to the thickening of first year ice, is often identifiable. Stable isotopic signatures reveal the origin of the ice's sea water. Structural and stratigraphic analysis helps assess growth mechanisms and conditions, as well as provides important data for understanding sea ice thermal, optical and dielectric properties and for percolation modeling.
February 23rd, 2009
Evidence of Supernovae Found in Ice Core Sample
Written by Nancy Atkinson
February 23rd, 2009
Evidence of Supernovae Found in Ice Core Sample
Written by Nancy Atkinson
Ice core sample. Credit: University of Alaska Geophysical Institute
Ice core sample. Credit: University of Alaska Geophysical Institute
Chinese and Arabic astronomers left historical documentation of a supernova that occurred in our own galaxy in the year 1006 (SN 1006), and another one 48 years later (SN 1054). Some of the writings about SN 1006 say there was a visual explosion half the size of the moon, and it shone so brightly that objects on the ground could be seen at night. We know these writings weren't just fantastical imaginations because we now have the "leftovers" of these supernovae; Supernova Remnant 1006 and the Crab Nebula. But now there is more evidence. A team of Japanese scientists has found the first evidence of supernovae in an ice core sample.
The gamma rays from nearby supernova ought to have a significant impact on our atmosphere, in particular by producing an excess of nitrogen oxide. Ice cores are known to be rich in information regarding past climates, and scientists thought core samples could record astronomical phenomena, as well. In 1979, a group of researchers suggested the idea when they found nitrate ion (NO3-) concentration spikes in an ice core sample from the South Pole ice core that might correlate with the known historical supernovae Tycho (AD 1572), Kepler (AD 1604), and SN 1181 (AD 1181). Their findings, however, were not supported by subsequent examinations by other researchers using different ice cores, and the results remained controversial and confusing.
But in 2001, a team of scientists from Japan drilled a 122 meter ice core sample at the Dome Fuji station in Antarctica, an inland site in Antarctica. At a depth of about 50 metres, corresponding to the 11th century, they found three nitrogen oxide spikes, two of which were 48 years apart and easily identifiable as belonging to SN 1006 and SN 1054. The team speculates that the mysterious third spike may have been caused by another supernova, visible only from the southern hemisphere.
Taco :0)
I know Pat but it's impossible to get a complete global record, it just is. Ice cores will only give insight into polar climate, so in a very general way we can see where the earth may have been significantly warmer or colder, but nothing detailed. The same goes for the pollen and plants...it's sporadic and can never be converted into a complete global picture.
I don't have a problem with it, except that there is so much controversy about the accuracy of reconstructed temperature graphs that I have resigned to stay away from citing any such data for my arguments. Many people have twisted and manipulated the data to suit global warming theory anyway, just think of the climategate scandal. People get on my case all the time for citing "inaccurate and incomplete data", so why should I bother with it at all if they're going to be hypocritical. From now on I will debate the hard factual temperature data from satellite measurements since 1979. We have only truly observed the earth's climate since then, and we are about to observe the first ever cold PDO cycle with our satellites, and I think that's going to be really revealing over the next 30 years. I'm excited to be growing up during this time when all this technology is opening up to us, and I'm eager to keep learning about this intriguing stuff.
Gore-isms included.
LOL
Maybe we can get some "Family" advice from the Likes of Okla.Sen Inhofe to join the clever posters as well.
LOL again.
BREAKING NEWS!!!Inverted earth theory,since the earth is one million degrees hot the earth is pushing upward causing the heat to boil to the top,causing the earth to warm! Al Gore!We need to pass cap and trade now!!Send your money to INVERTED EARTH THEORY IN CARE OF Al GORE and the one we have been waiting for !
Action: Quote | Ignore User
there is no help4u is it
Politics muddies science and those who do the research arent driven by it,nor consumed by it either as we see here on a daily basis.
I have wu-mail saved from 5 years to prove dat factoid..and from recently as well.
LOL
But when ya a tad more chronologically dated as I am,,,one tends to stick with the published data and the science.
Not the trends and cable sound bites many come here with.
I try to stick to what I do.
Observe the tropics,lend a word about preparation..and maybe share some personal insight garnered from 30 plus Hours in Eyewall's thru 5 decades.
My lil way of contributing.
Nope not for me Keeper.... LOL
I'm well past that kind of Help.... LMAO again....
And you do a great job at it Pat...we all very much appreciate what you do here and the wisdom you share with us.
I like sticking to scientific facts too, but like you said politics gets in the way so that people can't tell what's a fact and what's not anymore. There are too many lies out there these days and people practicing bad science. The truth will eventually win out as it always does, no matter which truth that may be.
With your mind and tact..your gonna do fine Levi.
You dont go emotional and beserk with the data you present and always are respectful as far as I have seen and observed.
That and a good attitude with a formal education will take one far in a career choice.
Thanx for the kind words as well.
Money talks. Good intentions aside.
Anyway, goodnight.
It was also one of the five winning essays of the There Are Alternatives Project of the McKeever Institute of Economic Policy Analysis.
The Alaska Permanent Fund: A Model of Resource Rents for Public Investment and Citizen Dividends
by Alanna Hartzok
Alaska Permanent Fund
i myself pretty well have the same outlook pat been on this earth 45 yrs been watchin weather since i was 16 i have no formal training in weather i see the changes don't need any proof all the proof ya need is in observations and changes in patterns the last 20 years and things are changing if its human or not things are changing and ya don't need to be a climate scientist to see this
Thanks for the compliment.
And yes, Levi is skeptical about global warming which is directly attributed to the burning of fossil fuels, aka OIL, which contributes a substantial amount to his family's annual income.
I trust the young lad is very bright; however, I still trust in the power of the almighty dollar to influence one's thoughts that are closest to one's heart.
I'm 18 chicklit....I don't think I'm caring about oil putting money in my pocket as I don't have any money yet LOL. And my dad makes money off of quite different things than oil so that's not a concern.
You are part of a family that receives a substantial pay-off annually from the mining of oil in your state. If you're anything like my family, which was a very healthy one while my son was growing up, we discussed many issues over the kitchen table at dinner every night. My son, of course, would be influenced by his parents' opinions, as any good son would. Anyway, I'm leaving it at that.
Not a personal attack by any means, as I have great respect for you as both a person and a student of meteorology and whatever field you choose for yourself. I am sure you will do well as you show an aptitude for studying.
You mean our Permanent-fund-dividend? Sure I guess but Alaska won't necessarily die without oil. I can't prove it to you but honestly the thought that efforts to prevent global warming might lower my family's income has never even entered my mind until now, much less influenced my opinion on the subject. In fact I'm surprised the companies like Exxon Mobile haven't put up more of a fight considering its oil interests.
I'll accept the truth when it is plain to see, no matter what it is.
We're talking to Junior.
And he is really a very good boy.
So behave Grothar.
Anyway, goodnight!
GROTHAR!!! (sarcastic old ba$...)
;-)
LOL
Who's Junior?
How much Oil does FLorida produce?
Zilch,Nada, naught.
But they want no Rigs within view of their Coastlines as well.
But they moan when a cat 3 is heading for Texas or Louisiana.
Way before they even consider the Impact on a coastline or those maybe in danger.
Folks are always here hollering about gas prices.
One should take care with swift judgment of States that do Produce,refine and process Oil so you and those non producing states can have Gas,fuel oil and plastics.
Louisiana citizens receive no such funding or royalties from our resources being plundered by Big Oil,our wetlands and coastal erosion is a direct result of that process.
And we produce a Large % of what the other States use.
I'd lighten up on Alaska.
Or Maybe invest in Orange Juice powered Cars.
G'night too.
(this is weather, not climate, before any of you get any ideas...)
http://www.norman.noaa.gov/2010/03/no-tornadoes-in-february-2010/
Knew it was too good to last!!
Yes, but the effects of solar activity are not immediate and also not very large. However, the next solar maximum may have much of an effect, as per the solar variation article:
There is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145±30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70±30 in 2023
Interesting. Thanks for that. So in 2009 there was only one patch of (free-floating) old ice west of Greenland and the rest of it was young ice.
No, of course the Earth has been warmer in the past. But certainly not that warm while human civilization existed. Look at it this way: human civilization and agricultural methods that have supported us depend on the current stable period of climate called the Holocene (some now call the current epoch the Anthropocene due to human influence). In the past, many ancient civilizations have collapsed due to famine, wars, resource depletion, or climate change. However, both the rate and amplitude of change that we're heading into are beyond the natural variability of the past 10,000 years. Remember that past civilizations existed when the world was not grouped into a global modern civilization, and also when networks that we depend on such as electricity and the Internet did not exist. Now, a global climate change will affect the global civilization. Sure dinosaurs fluorished during a warm era, but can most species today survive such a rapid transition to a climate state like that without enough time to adapt? No.
Let's look at solar variation again and see when existing cycles may provide an extra boost to warming this century: 2030 and 2038.
Now, what about a cooling influence? 2074.
OK, the stuff about blocking of gyres is interesting, but hopefully temporary. I'm only going to address a few points here, and one is that the winter pattern this year effectively opened up the floodgates to Arctic air on the continental landmasses in the Northern Hemisphere, and the reverse was true in the southern hemisphere. What we need now is a global climate change deal that will aim to reduce carbon emissions and other acivities damaging to the environment. Which the world leaders completely failed to do in Copenhagen, one because of mistrust, and two because it was cold. The same cold weather is leading to more fossil fuel being burnt through heating, as well as more climate denial. I have made my own predictions, and one of them is that global average temperatures will warm by 2.2C from 1800 levels by 2050, causing the extinctions of about one-third of all plant/animal species. I'd say that half of all species will be extinct by the mid-2070's. The problem is, if such a prediction unfold, can we as human beings cope with that? What of our cultural, ancestral and even spiritual ties to the land and famous heritage sites? If they and entire patches of habitable land are gone forever, how will societies cope with loss on a continous basis?
The NAO and gyre slowing pattern has already contributed to colder than normal SSTs in the western and northern half of the North Atlantic basin (minus some areas around Greenland and Svalbard), surrounding the Gulf Stream. The division between warm and cool anomalies is espected to be closer to parallel to latitude lines when hurricane season starts. In addition, hurricanes will likely alter the direction of the Gulf Stream as well, setting it up for future hurricanes.
Oh dear, many people around the world depend on the ocean as a main food source. Jellyfish and toxic algal blooms will also proliferate, further starving dead zones of oxygen and altering the global oceanic heat, salinity and nutrient balance. There are even some species of jellyfish that reproduce asexually by the billions when conditions such as temperature, salinity, acidity, etc. change by a fraction of a noticeable amount. Already, jellyfish are ruining fish catches off East Asia, mothers have had to send their children away to prostitution in Kenya due to failed crops and global warming, Tuvalu and the Maldives are thinking about where to go when their country is submerged under the sea, etc. If this gets worse progressively, and at a progressively faster rate, the entire world will suffer, and wars could break out. 640 million people would be displaced by a 10-meter sea level rise, and that's by today's population. Much of Southern Europe could be turned to desert, along with the American Midwest and the Amazon before 2100. If we don't examine the possible effects, we won't act, and if we don't act in time then all we can do is watch as our livelihoods are slowly destroyed by a product of our own actions.
Many people have had to flee to higher ground after the ice age, for example when the Black Sea was turned from a freshwater or brine lake to part of the ocean and its shores quickly rose perhaps 50 metres. Today the lake is 90% devoid of oxygen.Link The point is, today there are more cities in low-lying places, so they will have to be abandoned, and in some cases entire countries will have to be abandoned. Also, a similar thing could happen today, if global sea levels rise past 25 m and fill into a saltwater lake called Ozero Manych-Gudilo, in Russia. If the waters spill eastward, the entire Caspian Basin will be filled to the brim, and that's about 55 metres of local sea level rise. Another place where this could happen is around Erta Ale, a volcano, in Ethiopia. It is completely surrounded by a region below sea level and is located in a part of the Great Rift Valley that is about to split Africa into two, and the filling of the depression would initiate this process. The sea level rise requried is about seven meters.
Um...In that case, the converse would also be true. When global temperatures rise above 2C, the commonly accepted threshold for dangerous climate change, there will likely still be people claiming that "it's all a hoax".
Oh, that reminds me. Link
Politics? POLITICS?! Why does every skeptic have to inject unreasonal assumptions about political motives behind every AGW argument? If people study climate change in order to disprove it, that's coming up with a conclusion before examining the evidence, and is neither skepticism nor science. If AGW is propaganda, then skepticism on this issue is ExxonMobil. Me? I strongly dislike politics. It simply DOES NOT WORK. Global warming is supposed to be about science, but the denial industry has injected so much confuddle into this as to turn it into a political issue (and forestalling the actual science).
Atlanta, Corpus Christi, Orlando, and Melbourne crack the top 5 coldest Feb. on record!
I got this from the Weather Channel
Im flattered sport...LOL
nothing last forever
lol
I love when the Cali s get riled about the smallest of spills immediately surrounded by a boom and cleaned up. Not that it is a good thing, of course, but far more crude naturally bubbles out of the ocean floor off of California than man spills.
Ha! How you doing Atmo??? Hate when the blog starts getting civil.
Tough to deny that the manufactured fear industry had done it's share, too. Wild, fictional claims do nothing but aid the conspiracy theorists.
Worked offshore for 3 years and well...built 3 Oil reinfires before I was 20 in the Late 70s.
Ive seen the Damage done on both Land and sea.
But I dont know if you know this,..but them coal fired Plant s your running and those Vehicles driving up and down yer Highways 24/7 365 may be polluting more than any Oil Spill ever recorded Dear.
But I'd hate to burden you with the numbers.
We gots plenty of them data types here all the time.
What you really dont want is those rigs down in Miami and off Orlando for all those tourist dollars to see.
But one can see Many from Destin and Pensacola already.
LOL
Hey, Pat. Sorry, no quote tonight. Seems others have had their way quoting everyone else in the world. Hope you have been well. Haven't been on too much as you know.
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