Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:47 PM GMT op 20 november 2009

Share this Blog
8
+

We should emit as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as possible and oppose efforts to regulate CO2 emissions, because more CO2 is good for the Earth. That's the take-home message of an audacious TV ad that was run this fall by the advocacy group, CO2isgreen.com. "Higher CO2 levels than we have today would help the Earth's ecosystems, and support more plant and animal life", the ad proclaims.

It's the brainchild of H. Leighton Steward, a retired oil industry executive, and Corbin J. Robertson, Jr., chief executive and leading shareholder in Natural Resource Partners, a Houston-based owner of coal resources that lets other companies mine, in return for royalties. According to an article in the Washington Post, the ad ran this fall in New Mexico and Montana, which have key Congressmen that CO2isgreen.com hopes to sway. The ads form part of a major PR campaign being waged by the fossil fuel industry and its allies in advance of the crucial U.N. Climate Change Conference, which will be held December 7 - 18 in Copenhagen, Denmark. At that meeting, the leaders of the world will gather to negotiate an agreement to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The new agreement will be the world's road map for dealing with climate change, and the stakes are huge.


Figure 1. Screen shot of the new ad by the advocacy group CO2isgreen.com.

Let's consider the scientific accuracy of the ad's three main points:

1) "Congress is considering a law that would classify CO2 as pollution. This will cost us jobs".
Well, this is a reasonable concern. Fossil fuels represent the foundation upon which modern civilization is built. The marvelous inventions of civilized life that have brought increased health, lifespan, and prosperity to billions of people are largely due to the use of fossil fuels. Regulating CO2 and moving to non-fossil fuel based energy sources won't be cheap or easy, and there is a potential for significant economic harm if our politicians bungle the job. The fossil fuel industry employs millions of people, and some of these jobs will no doubt be lost as new "green" energy sources are developed. However, the longer-term economic benefits of moving to a less fossil fuel-intensive economy, plus the jobs created as a result, must be weighed against the shorter term economic disruption that may occur.

2) "There is no scientific evidence that CO2 is a pollutant".
Webster's dictionary defines a pollutant as "man-made waste that contaminates an environment". Webster's defines "contaminate" as "to make inferior or impure". CO2 is man-made waste, and there is scientific evidence that added CO2 can make our atmosphere "inferior" to its present state, or else the EPA would not be considering regulations. As just one example, when CO2 is dissolved in the oceans, the water grows more acidic. Corals and other creatures that build shells out of calcium carbonate cannot form their shells if the acidity passes a critical level--their shells will dissolve. Thus, for these organisms, CO2 is definitely a pollutant. Several shell-building planktonic organisms, such as coccolithophorids, pteropods, and foraminifera, form an important basis of the food chain in cold ocean waters, and the continued increase in CO2 emissions have many scientists very concerned about a collapse of the oceanic food chain in these regions in coming decades. Presumably, CO2isgreen.com is taking the very narrow view that a pollutant is something that harms human health when breathed. The more important question is, how does CO2 emitted by fossil fuel generation, plus all the effects that come with it, impact human health and the health of Earth's ecosystems?

3) "Higher CO2 levels than we have today would help the Earth's ecosystems, and support more plant and animal life".
It is true that many plants grow faster under enhanced CO2--the so-called "CO2 fertilization effect". Just ask your neighborhood commercial indoor marijuana grower, who probably grows his or her plants in an enhanced CO2 environment. The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report found that crop yields under unstressed conditions increased by 0 - 25% for a doubling of CO2, and that growth of young tree stands also increased. However, the IPCC noted that ground level ozone pollution will limit the CO2 fertilization effect. Ozone pollution is caused by emissions from fossil fuel burning, and will increase in a warmer world since the chemical reactions that create ozone act more efficiently at higher temperatures. Furthermore, the higher temperatures, increased drought, and increased insect pests that added CO2 is likely to bring to the atmosphere via greenhouse effect warming will induce major stresses to plants that will counteract the CO2 fertilization effect. A 2009 paper by Battisti and Naylor in Science titled, "Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat", reported that the 2003 heat wave in Europe--featuring temperatures predicted to be the norm by the end of the century--reduced harvests of fruits and grains by 21 - 36%. The 2007 IPCC report noted, "even slight warming decreases yields in seasonally and low latitude regions". Most of the world's population at risk of starvation live in such regions (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa).

To get more CO2 in the air, we have to mine, transport, and burn fossil fuels, and potentially fight wars to protect them. This creates a host of effects highly detrimental to people and ecosystems:

1) Particle pollution, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides emitted as a result of burning coal and operating motor vehicles cause over $118 billion in health and other damages per year in the U.S., according to a Congressionally-ordered National Academy of Sciences study released last month. The study said this was a "substantial underestimate", as it did not consider climate change-related costs, or pollution emissions from a wide variety of other sources.

2) Oil and natural gas drilling and oil spills have had catastrophic effects on many ecosystems over the past century, and will continue to do so. Coal mining via mountaintop removal has laid waste to vast regions of the Appalachians, obliterating over 700 miles of rivers and streams. Failures of slurry ponds dams such as the one that failed in December 2008 in Tennessee have contaminated numerous ecosystems, and killed hundreds (the Buffalo Creek, WV dam failure of 1972 killed 125, and a 1966 slurry pond dam failure in Aberfan, Wales killed 144, including 126 schoolchildren). The Physicians for Social Responsibility put out a report this week called Coal's Assault on Human Health that details many more examples of how coal is bad for ecosystems and human health.

3) Coal mining accidents killed 65 miners in the U.S. in 2006, and kill tens of thousands of miners worldwide each year (China has averaged 6,000 deaths per year this decade). Tens of thousands of miners contract black lung disease each year, as well.

The Greening of Planet Earth
Fossil fuel industry-funded Public Relations campaigns focusing on the benefits of CO2 for life on Earth are nothing new. In 2006, I blogged about a TV ad run by the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) that proclaimed, "as for carbon dioxide, it isn't smog or smoke, it's what we breathe out and plants breathe in. Carbon dioxide: they call it pollution, we call it life.". In 1991, coal giant Western Fuels founded an organization called "The Greening Earth Society" which spent $250,000 to produce the video, "The Greening of Planet Earth" (available on Youtube). The 30-minute movie features scientists who describe in glowing terms the tremendous increases in plant growth that will occur due to increased CO2. Set to appropriately stirring music, the movie concludes: "The future also holds great promise. And contributing to this promise is the positive effect that carbon dioxide has upon our world. Crop plants will continue to grow more productively, contributing to ever-greater supplies of food. Forests will extend their ranges. Grasses will grow where none grow now. And great tracts of barren land we be reclaimed. In fact, it is not inconceivable that the vitality of our biosphere could rise by a full order of magnitude over the next few centuries, to a new, greening Planet Earth". According to Boston Globe investigative reporter Ross Gelbspan in his book The Heat is On, the movie was shown extensively in Washington D.C. and in the capitals of OPEC nations, and was the favorite movie of President George H.W. Bush's chief of staff, John Sununu. It's interesting to note that The Greening Earth Society shares the same mailing address and fax number as the Americans for Balanced Energy Choices (ABEC), a fossil fuel industry front group that was given $35 million to fight climate change regulation in 2008. According to the creators of desmogblog.com, a website dedicated to "Clearing the PR Pollution that Clouds Climate Science", that money, plus an extra $5 million, was shuffled to a new industry front group called the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity (ACCCE), and used to help fund the "Clean Coal" TV ads that dominated the airwaves during the November 2008 election. The details are in the excellent new book, Climate Cover-up, written by desmogblog.com co-founder James Hoggan and Richard Littlemore.

Commentary
The CO2isgreen.com ad is beautifully produced, with multiple windows depicting flowing pictures of flowers blooming, animals grazing, crops growing, and the sun shining over these grand scenes of nature's bounty, all set to the soothing sound track of some slick New Age music. Who wouldn't want to live in such a world? Unfortunately, this is a fantasy world created by fossil fuel industry Public Relations people, and we live in the real world where physics and science rule. Oil is not clean, coal is worse, and the extraction, transportation, and burning of fossil fuels that accompany the enhanced-CO2 world we live in are already causing massive environmental destruction. Add in the immense environmental damage likely to occur as a result of the coming climate change storm, and the fantasy that more CO2 will be good for the world dissolves into a nightmare for a huge proportion of Earth's ecosystems--and the people who depend upon them for life.

Hacked emails purport to show climate scientists' cover-up
A hacker broke into an email server at the Climate Research Unit of the UK's University of East Anglia this week and posted ten years worth of private email exchanges between leading scientists who've published research linking humans to climate change. Realclimate.org has an interesting response to the debacle, saying the emails are a "presumably careful selection of (possibly edited?) correspondence dating back to 1996 and as recently as Nov 12)". They show one example of a "cherry-picked" distortion of one of the emails that global warming contrarians are using to try to discredit the science of climate change, and successfully refute the distortion, in my mind. The realclimate groups adds:

"More interesting is what is not contained in the emails. There is no evidence of any worldwide conspiracy, no mention of George Soros nefariously funding climate research, no grand plan to "get rid of the Medieval Warm Period", no admission that global warming is a hoax, no evidence of the falsifying of data, and no "marching orders" from our socialist/communist/vegetarian overlords. But if cherry-picked out-of-context phrases from stolen personal emails is the only response to the weight of the scientific evidence for the human influence on climate change, then there probably isn't much to it".

There's not a person alive who would not look bad if their private emails made public, taken out of context, and subjected to attack. The reputations of all the scientists involved will suffer, as will understanding of the science of climate change. Global warming contrarians have not been able to effectively dispute the reality of human-caused climate change by publishing peer-reviewed scientific articles, so they've done what any effective (and unethical) politician would do--resort to personal attacks of dubious merit on their opponents, in an attempt to muddy the waters and distract people from the facts. That's politics, and it's not too surprising to see this sort of ugly episode in a game where the stakes are so high.

None of the so-called "smoking gun" emails the contrarians are excited about change what I pointed out in in my previous post: Arctic sea ice was at a new record low this month, human-emitted greenhouse gases are largely to blame, and the polar ice cap is expected to melt by 2030, throwing the climate into a dangerous new unstable mode.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 775 - 725

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

775. marinermac1
6:02 PM GMT op 17 december 2013
Your advocacy for Climate Change is a result of your insecurity manifested as conformity to the bubble land of the Bay Area Left Coast. You would have no job, no funding, no friends, and no poontang or poonass if you espoused differently.

Further, you should not call yourself a scientist, but a lobbyist and barker, for not upholding the scientific method, having healthy skepticism, and producing childish lies of omission.

Dr. Masters, you are a baiter.
Member Since: 12 november 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
774. FairOakien
9:56 PM GMT op 14 mei 2013
Too much of anything is a bad thing!

But just a question
Volcano CO2
How much CO2 is being produced by the Mexico Volcano?
What about the Italian eruption and the anticipated Alaskian eruption.
Are these volcano CO2 generations the norm; higher or lower than expected annual outputs.
Anyone have an answer?
Member Since: 20 augustus 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
773. Colleng
12:28 AM GMT op 24 november 2009
Dr. Masters,

In reading your blog, your positions present a very clear bias against the extraction and use of coal. If you look at any industry you will find that changes take place in the landscape, physical conditions can be affected on other properties, and wherever man and machinery is involved, there will be deaths from accidents. Regarding your insertion of the Buffalo Creek disaster, I lived near Buffalo Creek, remember very well the day it happened, and know and worked with people who survived it. It was a terribly tragic event brought about by only doing the minimum required instead of looking ahead for broader implications. What industry isn't somewhere occasionally guilty of that. Should we eliminate every industry that has some type of major fatal accident? Instead we should learn how to not repeat the situation.

Is the operation of large surface coal mines any more destructive to the environment than the building of a major cities? Considering the long term pollutant loading and loss of lives, a city seems to be more destructive. But I don't see you recommending the cessation of city building.

Most of the complaints against mountaintop removal surface mining comes from people who don't like the look of the active or finished operation. They don't take into consideration that it is the land owner, or lessee with the approval of the owner, who is using the mining land as they see fit for their business. That is the same thing that any industry, including agriculture, does.

I agree there are problems from insufficient regulations, and sometimes deliberately lax regulatory enforcement, against offsite impacts. But those are correctable. Please use your resources to promote the correcting of problems in the extraction and use of coal, as it is the largest energy source we have in this country. For example, think of the national environmental and energy self-sufficiency benefits from using the multiple billions of tax dollars dispersed by Congress if they had been focused on upgrading older power plants.

In your last point, you discuss the deaths of 65 U.S. coal miners in 2006 and the thousands more around the world. You state that tens of thousands of miners contract black lung disease each year. While any fatal industrial accident is tragic, don't hold that up as a reason to not have coal mining unless you are also going to promote the abolition of automobiles to eliminate the thousands (not just 65) killed and injured in automobile accidents. I don't know where you obtained the information on miners contracting black lung, but at that rate it would only be a few short years until there would not be any miners alive and able to work. The mining industry uses more machinery and fewer miners per ton of coal than in years past.

Also, please don't compare the safety of mining practices in other countries with those in the U.S. It is through years of efforts to promote safety through regulations and education that the U.S. mine accident fatality record is much better per man hour. The value of a human life is considered much higher in this country (well at least after they are born, but that's another subject) than in many other countries. Even the military recognizes that.

770. reedzone
2:35 PM GMT op 23 november 2009
Honestly if I say the "S" word, I'll be taking the heat like last night. People on this blog are amazing, called me a sick person. I'm sorry but a Christian is not a sicko, I don't want to see any disasters, just predicting by what I see with the pattern.
Member Since: 1 juli 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
769. StormChaser81
2:14 PM GMT op 23 november 2009
Member Since: 11 augustus 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
768. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:11 PM GMT op 23 november 2009
Quoting Dakster:
KOG - No problem here. Just thought you were a little exciting about the model runs.
not excited but watchin anyway
Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52216
767. PensacolaDoug
2:09 PM GMT op 23 november 2009
Quoting TampaWeatherBuff:
I respect Dr. Masters a lot, but I think the release of those emails is more damning than he realizes. It wasn't just emails taken out of conext, there were source code files included, and the comments in some of those -- for those of us who do software engineering for a living -- were equally damning.

Also, Dr. notes that there are no references to Soros et al. But there are enough references to the need to delete certain compromising emails and even data files that I think the veneer of selfless scientific seeking of truth has been sufficiently lifted, and what we see are people trying to prove a theory -- often confounded by contrary data, which they reject because it doesn't fit the theory.

The idea that the science is settled and the cure is confiscatory taxation of, and massive redistrubution of wealth from first-world countries is hardly "proven" at the moment.

I wouldn't care except certain politicians are reaching for my wallet and thereby my freedom and I think these emails confirm some of the fears of those of us who find all this so-called debate strikingly more political than scientific.


Good post. I agree wholeheartedly.
Member Since: 25 juli 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
765. Dakster
2:06 PM GMT op 23 november 2009
Anyone here going to Copenhagen?

Member Since: 10 maart 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9687
762. Dakster
1:58 PM GMT op 23 november 2009
KOG - No problem here. Just thought you were a little exciting about the model runs.
Member Since: 10 maart 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9687
761. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:57 PM GMT op 23 november 2009
sorry about caps
Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52216
760. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:52 PM GMT op 23 november 2009
Quoting P451:
GFS bombing a nor'easter for the mid-atlantic around the 120 hour range.

168hr GFS Model



HERE IS GFS/MRF 4 PANE RUN SHOWING TWO SYSTEMS WITH SECOND BEING STRONGEST OF THE 2

Member Since: 15 juli 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52216
759. IKE
1:51 PM GMT op 23 november 2009
The following is nothing but a joke....

***picked up wife at airport Sunday night***

Wife: Hey honey, how did your weekend go?
Me: Just fine. I debated Global Warming all weekend and didn't get anything accomplished.
..............................................


I'm sorry...I believe GW exists but have zilch to use as a link,etc....and don't feel like arguing over it and fail to see any point in doing so.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

L8R.

Oh....P451....I gave you a plus on post 756.

I've got to go try and make a dollar.
Member Since: 9 juni 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
757. biff4ugo
1:45 PM GMT op 23 november 2009
One thing not mentioned in the blog article is the Ocean's buffering capacity for CO2 is diminishing. It has dropped by 10% since 2000 according to some blogs I'm reading.
Yes, the shellfish need their PH in a set range in order to make shells so some CO2 is needed but not from antropogenic sources. And now we need to make 10% less just to break even.
Member Since: 28 december 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1495
755. IKE
1:43 PM GMT op 23 november 2009
Quoting Dakster:
IKE - Hopefully a peaceful end to the season next week...


I'll 2nd those thoughts.
Member Since: 9 juni 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
753. TampaWeatherBuff
1:31 PM GMT op 23 november 2009
I respect Dr. Masters a lot, but I think the release of those emails is more damning than he realizes. It wasn't just emails taken out of conext, there were source code files included, and the comments in some of those -- for those of us who do software engineering for a living -- were equally damning.

Also, Dr. notes that there are no references to Soros et al. But there are enough references to the need to delete certain compromising emails and even data files that I think the veneer of selfless scientific seeking of truth has been sufficiently lifted, and what we see are people trying to prove a theory -- often confounded by contrary data, which they reject because it doesn't fit the theory.

The idea that the science is settled and the cure is confiscatory taxation of, and massive redistrubution of wealth from first-world countries is hardly "proven" at the moment.

I wouldn't care except certain politicians are reaching for my wallet and thereby my freedom and I think these emails confirm some of the fears of those of us who find all this so-called debate strikingly more political than scientific.
Member Since: 19 oktober 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 188
752. Dakster
1:28 PM GMT op 23 november 2009
IKE - Hopefully a peaceful end to the season next week...
Member Since: 10 maart 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9687
748. Cotillion
12:54 PM GMT op 23 november 2009
The East Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass for the last three years, according to an analysis of data from a gravity-measuring satellite mission.

The scientists involved say they are "surprised" by the finding, because the giant East Antarctic sheet, unlike the west, has been thought to be stable.

Other scientists say ice loss could not yet be pinned on climate change, and uncertainties in the data are large.

The US-based team reports its findings in the journal Nature Geoscience.

Link

(Something for both sides of the argument there, if the data checks out: East Antarctic may finally be showing signs of impact, but on the other hand, that impact is still very small it seems.)
Member Since: 23 augustus 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
746. IKE
11:44 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
186 hours...
16 minutes...and it's officially finished...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

Member Since: 9 juni 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
745. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:16 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

The Low Pressure Area East of Mindanao has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "URDUJA"

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
===============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Urduja located at 9.7ºN 127.1ºE or 170 kms east of Surigao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Warning Signal #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Visayas Region
-------------
1.Leyte
2.Southern Leyte
3.Eastern Samar
4.Western Samar

Mindanao Region
-------------
1.Surigao del Sur
2.Surigao del Norte
3.Siargao
4.Dinagat Islands

Additional Information
========================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: 24 mei 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
744. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:31 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 23NOV)
=========================================
An area of convection (96W) located at 3.7N 107.4E or 295 NM east-northeast of Singapore. Animated multispectral imagery shows broad cyclonic turning of deep convection near an improving low level circulation center. A 0156z ASCAT Pass shows an increasingly symmetric low level circulation center with winds of 10-15 knots, Additionally, The ASCAT Pass shows 30 knot peripheral winds to the northwest (Associated with the northeasterly cold surge through the south china sea) and 20-25 knots winds to the southwest and southeast of the system's center. Upper level analysis indicates the system is located equatorward of the subtropical ridge axis with moderate vertical wind shear and radial outflow.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1006 MB. Due to the improving nature of the low level circulation center, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours IS FAIR
Member Since: 24 mei 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
743. Bobbyweather
8:49 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
Quoting winter123:

amazing... no shear, outflow, all we need now is a surface low! With the water temperatures, doubt it but with how this looks... anyway, its at 50w 37n now.

Isn't it 28N 48W?
Member Since: 7 september 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2649
742. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:49 AM GMT op 23 november 2009


Bongani aiming for northern part of Madagascar...
Member Since: 24 mei 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
741. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:17 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28
15:00 PM JST November 23 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 8.3N 147.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knot with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 8 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 9.0N 145.7E - 35 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Member Since: 24 mei 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
740. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:15 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number THREE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BONGANI (05-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion November 23 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Bongani (997 hPa) located at 8.5S 53.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale-Force Winds
==================
Near the center extending up to 40 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale-Force Winds
=====================
20 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM from the center in the northern semi-circle and up to 100 NM from the center within the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 08.9S 53.2E - 50 kts (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
24 HRS: 09.6S 52.7E - 60 kts (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
48 HRS: 10.4S 51.2E - 80 kts (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 11.5S 49.5E - 90 kts (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
========================
Classical and microwave imagery including Scatterometric data shows that the system has rapidly intensified over the last 18 hours. Specially last night microwave imagery shows that the low level organization has significantly improved.

System is analysed as T2.5 at (0000z) by SAB analysis.

Latest satellite imagery shows that the intensification trend is still on the way and the system is upgraded to a 40 knot moderate tropical storm and named "BONGANI" by Madagascar Meteorological Services.

Bongani is currently located on the northwestern edge of a mid level ridge and a weakness within this ridge can be seen along 50E. Present forecast is based on consensus of all available dynamical guidance that show a slow down and a more southwestward track at short range. The mid level ridge is forecast to rebuild Wednesday and the track could by that time take a more west southwest component. There is a lot of dispersion among all available forecast track, some guidance (UKMO, LAM Aladin-Reunion) have a more westward track than the offical forecast.

All factors look favorable for continued intensification. The only limiting element could be the intrusion within the circulation of dry subtropical air currently located to the southwest of the system. Intensification philosophy is a climatological one that bring Bongani to the tropical cyclone stage by 36 hours. It is not excluded that this could intensify at a faster rate

Considering all the above, interest in the Fahquar Archipelago, northern tip of Madagascar, Comoros Archipelago, and Mayotte Island should monitor the progress of Moderate Tropical Cyclone Bongani

Member Since: 24 mei 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
739. Patrap
6:07 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
It sure was a nice surprise to get an invite to the conference here skyepony..

heres tomorrows schedule of speakers..

> The Center for International Policy Takes Pleasure in Inviting You to
>
> A Conference on U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Defending Against Hurricanes
>
> To be held November 23, 2009, in New Orleans at River City Plaza, next to
Mardi Gras World
>
> 1380 Port of New Orleans Place
>
>
>
> 2 p.m. – Introduction by Wayne S. Smith of the Center for International Policy
>
>
>
> 2:15 – 2:45 p.m. – Vital U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Tracking Hurricanes and
Warning of their Approach. Jose Rubiera, of the Cuban Meteorological Center
(invited) and Lixion Avila of the U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami. Chaired by
Jay Higginbotham, Archivist Emeritus of Mobile
>
>
>
> 2:45 – 4:00 p.m. - U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in the Face of Hurricanes.
Dagoberto Rodriguez Barrera, Cuban Vice Minister of Foreign Relations
(invited); Lt.General (Ret) Russel Honore, Former Commander of Joint Task Force
Katrina; Lt. Col (Ret) Jerry Sneed, Director of Emergency Preparedness of
Orleans Parish; Ivor van Heerden, Founder of the Louisiana State University
Hurricane Center; Robert Turner, Director of the Southeast Louisiana Flood
Protection Authority. Chaired by Wayne Smith, Center for International Policy.
>
>
>
> 4:00 – 4:30 p.m. – The Growing Focus on Disaster Medicine and Disaster
Management in Both the U.S. and Cuba. Dr. Guillermo Mesa Ridel, Director, Latin
American Center for Disaster Medicine (invited); Dr. Alex Isakov, Founding
Director of the Emory University Office of Critical Event Preparedness and
Response; Lt. Gen Russel Honore, Board Member of LSU’s Stephenson Disaster
Management Institute; Chaired by Randy Poindexter, Executive Director of
International Cuba Society
>
>
>
> 4:30 – 4:45 p.m. – President Obama’s Prerogative, Despite the Embargo, to
Authorize U.S. Companies to Sell Cuba Reconstruction Materials and Equipment.
Robert L. Muse, Attorney, Muse and Associates
>
>
>
> 4:45 – 5:00 p.m. – Shared Ecosystems: Opportunities for Increasing
Environmental Cooperation and Collaboration between Cuba and the United States.
Dan Whittle, Senior Attorney with the Environmental Defense Fund.
>
>
>
> 5:00 – 6:00 p.m. – Open Discussion. Participants from the various delegations
to Cuba, and other interested parties, are invited to comment and express
opinions as to new initiatives and directions and how we could better organize
to advance our objectives. Mr. Ky Luu, the Director of the Tulane University
Disaster Resilience Leadership Academy, will have the first comment.
>
>
>
> 6:00 – 7:30 p.m. - Reception with cash bar in the Grand Oaks Mansion


Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125521
738. Skyepony (Mod)
5:34 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
I gotta give Ida-ex an outside chance of becoming one of those is it or isn't it like Grace, off in the far East Atlantic.

Pretty interesting about Cuba.
Member Since: 10 augustus 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36063
737. xcool
5:03 AM GMT op 23 november 2009




Member Since: 26 september 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
736. Patrap
4:55 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
I'll be attending the conference here tomorrow and will do a entry on it for Weds most likely.





No-nonsense general eyes warmer Cuba ties



The butt-kicking, cigar-chomping, no-nonsense general who lifted New Orleans from the depths of Hurricane Katrina in late 2005 thinks Cuba has some important lessons to teach this country in storm-fighting, and wants warmer relations with our neighbor to the south for that reason.

“They’re closer to the hurricane highway,” says retired Army Lt. Gen. Russel Honoré, talking from the home he’s still settling in at in Baton Rouge. “Even though it’s a poor country, challenged economically in all directions, they do a good job of hurricane (damage) prevention and preparedness. I say that tongue-in-cheek because it is a socialist, Communist-controlled country. At the same time people spend an extraordinary amount of time preparing to prevent damage to property and to human beings.”

Honoré will take part in the Conference on U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Defending Against Hurricanes Monday at the River City Complex in New Orleans’ East Bank. The event is sponsored by Washington-based Center for International Policy.

With Honoré will be Jose Rubiera of the Cuban Meteorological Center; Lixion Avila of the U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami; Dr. Mesa Ridel, the director of the Latin American Center for Disaster Medicine in Havana; retired Lt. Col Jerry Sneed, director of Emergency Preparedness of Orleans Parish; Ivor van Heerden, founder of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center; Robert Turner, director of the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority; and Dr. Alex Isakov, founding director of the Emory University Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response.

Honoré, who will be in Shreveport in December to help send off the deploying National Guard unit in which his son Michael is a member, recently spent four days in Cuba and came away impressed.

Read more about this issue, and Honoré's views, in Monday's print and online editions of The Times.

Member Since: 3 juli 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125521
735. CybrTeddy
4:36 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
Quoting P451:
X'Ida'Easter still alive out there.



Thats Ex-Ida??? Dang!
Member Since: 8 juli 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
734. winter123
3:35 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
Quoting P451:
X'Ida'Easter still alive out there.


amazing... no shear, outflow, all we need now is a surface low! With the water temperatures, doubt it but with how this looks... anyway, its at 50w 37n now.
Member Since: 29 juli 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1762
733. xcool
3:30 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
winter123 you like cool .com website huh
Member Since: 26 september 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
732. winter123
3:29 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
Quoting winter123:
potentially big snow event for the northeast on the 28th-29th.

18z. cant wait for 00z, this storm keeps getting bigger. Clipper, rockies storm, and coastal low all merge over new york.
Member Since: 29 juli 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1762
731. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:29 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ##
09:00 AM JST November 23 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.1N 127.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knot with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary
Member Since: 24 mei 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
730. xcool
3:23 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
;
Member Since: 26 september 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
729. xcool
3:22 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
SevereHurricane nope im not busted i have .http://www.accuweather.com/proBenefits.asp? thank your
Member Since: 26 september 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
728. weatherbro
3:11 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
What's with fronts stalling around here(Orlando) as of late. If this keeps up, I'm moving either to Arizona or Tallahassee.
Member Since: 26 mei 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1213
727. weatherbro
3:09 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
There's only one(as opposed to three) cases for a major Earth-Quack in Florida. And that's a one in a thousand year event.

Also, correct me if I'm wrong. During the Superstorm(March 93'), wasn't the AO(Arctic Oscillation) and NAO(North Atlantic Oscillation) negative and the PAO(Pacific American Oscillation) positive under a strong El Nino. If so, December would be the ideal month for one to occur.

Not sayin' it's gonna happen though. Just wondering.
Member Since: 26 mei 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1213
726. chucky7777
2:58 AM GMT op 23 november 2009


Will be interesting to see for sure.On occasion, Here in N. Fla.during winter i see 4 or 5 flakes,usually at about 3 a.m. it seems like lol.The deep south could see an interesting winter, i think there is a good possibility of a significant icing event or two....
Member Since: 19 oktober 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 174
725. PensacolaDoug
2:47 AM GMT op 23 november 2009
Check this! JB'S Latest.


SUNDAY 9 PM

Snow in New Orleans again this winter?


I cant remember the last time there was measurable snow in New Orleans two winters in row, but that is on the table this year First of all it snowed to stick last year, the earliest measurable ever. The pattern next week and beyond is one that could mean early season snow again is seen into the deep south. The overall pattern this winter, with the el nino, is in line with the kind of pattern that leads to snow in the deep south. But its particularly interesting to see if New Orleans can put this question away early, since the pattern with the negative AO and the pronounced southern jet developing is something that could lead to alot of people in areas where snow is not that common seeing it early this year

thanks for reading, ciao for now
Member Since: 25 juli 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519

Viewing: 775 - 725

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.