Record storm surges hit Mid-Atlantic coast
Record storm surges have caused major flooding along the North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware coasts over the past 24 hours, thanks to the powerful winds of a slow-moving Nor'easter energized by the remains of Hurricane Ida. Norfolk, Virginia, suffered its highest storm surge on record last night, when a surge of 5.96 feet hit the Sewells Point tide station. The previous record was 5.62' during Hurricane Isabel of 2003, with the Chesapeake-Atlantic Hurricane of 1933 close behind at 5.61'. Last night's peak surge did not hit at high tide, and the storm tide--the combination of surge plus the tide--peaked at 7.74' above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW), slightly below the 7.89' storm tide of Hurricane Isabel.
Figure 1. Rain gauge-measured precipitation from Ida-extratropical for the 24 hours ending at 7 am EST this morning. The storm dumped copious amounts of rain over a wide swath of coast. Image credit: NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.
The highest storm surges at Sewell's Point tide gauge in Norfolk, Virginia since 1927:
5.96' Nov 2009 Ida-extratropical
5.62' Sep 2003 Hurricane Isabel
5.61' Aug 1933 Chesapeake-Atlantic Hurricane
4.73' Sep 1933 Hurricane 13, Cat 1)
4.66' Mar 1962 Ash Wednesday Nor'easter
4.05' Sep 1936 (Hurricane 13, Cat 2)
Top storm tides in Norfolk history:
1933 hurricane (Aug 23rd 1933)..............8.9 feet MLLW
April 11th 1956 Nor'easter..................8.0 feet MLLW
Hurricane Isabel (Sep 18th 2003)............7.9 feet MLLW
Ida-extratropical (Nov 12th 2009)...........7.8 feet MLLW
Ash Wednesday storm (Mar 7th 1962)..........7.8 feet MLLW
Serious coastal flooding is occurring from northern North Carolina to the Delaware/New Jersey border, with record high storm surges recorded at many locations. The storm surge at Lewes Point, Delaware at 9:48 pm EST last night reached 4.63 feet, beating the record high of 4.17' set during the January 4, 1992 Nor'easter. Tide records go back to 1919 at Lewes Point. The highest surge at any of the NOAA-maintained tide gauges from Ida-extratropical was 6.74' at 9:24 pm EST at Money Point, Virginia, located on an inlet about five miles south of downtown Norfolk.
Ida-extratropical also brought hurricane-force wind gusts to the Virginia coast yesterday, with a gust of 75 mph recorded at the Oceana NAS. The Norfolk airport recorded sustained winds of 52 mph, gusting to 70 mph, at the height of the Nor'easter last night. Heavy rains of 6 - 11 inches since Tuesday have created flooding on most of the the rivers along the entire North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland coasts. Ida-extratropical is slowly weakening and pulling away to the northeast, and the rains have ended along most of the coast, though. Virginia has now seen its highest storm surges, but this afternoon's high tide cycle is likely to bring another round of record or near-record storm tides to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and extreme southern New Jersey. This afternoon's high tide is forecast to bring a storm tide of 7.6' to Atlantic City, NJ, which would be the 10th highest tide there since 1911, but well short of the record 8.98' storm tide during the December, 1992 Nor'easter. By Saturday, Ida-extratropical will be on its way out to sea, and the storm surges and rains will finally abate.
Figure 2. Predicted storm tide (height above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide measured in a full 19-year natural tidal cycle, black line) for Lewes, Delaware (at the mouth of Delaware Bay), as predicted by the GFS model. A storm tide of 8.0 feet is forecast this afternoon during the high tide. For a full description of this plot, see the NOAA Extratropical Surge web site.
Figure 3. Tide gauge trace from the Sewell's Point gauge in Norfolk, VA, shows a storm surge of nearly 6 feet (green line) hit at 8:30 pm EST, with a maximum storm tide of 7.8 feet above MLLW occurring at high tide. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Storm surges and sea level rise
The storm surge flooding in the Norfolk area was exacerbated by the fact that sea level has risen and the land has subsided significantly over the past century. Over the past 60 years, absolute sea level along the coast of Virginia has risen by about 2.6 mm/year. However, the relative sea level has risen by 4.44 mm/year since 1927 (Figure 4), meaning that the land has sunk by about 1.84 mm/year. The net result is that the ocean is now about 1.16 feet higher at Norfolk than it was in 1927. The Norfolk tide gauge shows the highest rate of relative sea level rise of any gauge on the U.S. East Coast (though relative sea level rise is much higher along the Gulf Coast, with rises near 3 feet/century at New Orleans). Thus, today's 5+ foot storm surge brought water more than a foot higher in Norfolk than the 5+ foot storm surge of the 1933 hurricane. Storm surge damages will steadily increase along the entire coast this century as sea level rise accelerates and coastal development continues. It is urgent that government take action in coming years to limit development in vulnerable coastal regions. The ocean is going flood our sand castles that we are building in harm's way, at an ever increasing rate.
Figure 4. Monthly mean sea level at the Sewells Point, VA tide gauge in Norfolk, without the regular seasonal fluctuations due to coastal ocean temperatures, salinities, winds, atmospheric pressures, and ocean currents. The long-term linear trend is also shown, including its 95% confidence interval. Relative sea level has increased by 1.16 feet since 1927, the highest rate of rise on the U.S. East Coast. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Portlight responding to the flooding in Virginia
Portlight.org is deploying up to 3 self-sufficient mobile kitchens capable of feeding over 2000 people a day to the Virginia coast. They will be providing meals for first responders, volunteers, and, of course, affected residents. Donations are welcome--visit the portlight blog to learn more and make a PayPal donation. Thanks!
Take action: sign the QuikSCAT letter
The QuikSCAT satellite, launched in 1999, provides crucial measurements of surface wind speed and direction over Earth's oceans twice per day. Forecasters world-wide have come to rely on data from QuikSCAT to issue timely warnings and make accurate forecasts of tropical and extratropical storms, wave heights, sea ice, aviation weather, iceberg movement, coral bleaching events, and El Niño. QuikSCAT's antenna is expected to fail within the next six months, according to engineers at NASA/JPL, and QuikSCAT data has already been removed from our global weather forecast models, due to concerns about data reliability.
There exists a narrow window of opportunity in the next few days to get the wheels in motion to launch a QuikSCAT replacement instrument on a Japanese satellite in 2015. The funding for this must start within the next budget cycle, and there is currently no funding in place for a replacement QuikSCAT. If we miss this this opportunity, it may be ten years or more before a QuikSCAT replacement can be launched. To this end, I urge all of you to sign the QuikSCAT funding letter being presented to John Holdren, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.
The letter is at: http://coaps.fsu.edu/scatterometry/statement/.
If you agree with the letter, please sign it (via the web site) as soon as possible: there is a very small window of opportunity to influence the next budget cycle, with this window closing within a few days.
Note that to validate your signature you must type the validation code in the bottom box. This code is the word that appears after 'code =', then click on the sign button.
For more information on QuikSCAT, see my post, The case for a new QuikSCAT satellite.
Figure 5. NASA's QuikSCAT satellite, launched in 1999. Image credit: NASA.
Expect a new blog until Monday, when I'll discuss the outlook for the remainder of hurricane season. It is finally over?
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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GFS still with the idea of leaving nothing behind at the surface to turn around and make another run at the east coast. Slowly of to the NE it goes. Another trough approaching the east coast from the west-just in case!
What the heck, keep! I'll say it's over.
But won't know for sure until June of 2010!
THIS lightning bolt off Bondi was one of 868 strikes that illuminated Sydney as a spectacular storm swept the city last night(Monday).
The gale followed a day of scorching temperatures, which reached 38.8C at Penrith.
"Although it was a mild storm it brought a lot of lightning with it," Chris Webb, of the NSW bureau of Meteorology, said. "Between 6.30 and 7.30 there were 498 cloud to ground strikes in a 30km radius from Sydney Airport. Another 370 bolts of cloud to cloud lightning were also recorded."
Earlier in the day firefighters battled a scrub and grass fire in West Hoxton, bringing it under control after initial fears that 50 homes were in danger.
Temperatures were expected to be back to the low 20s today.
Hope all goes well - good luck with the surgery. Keep one thing in mind (on the up side of surgery...VERSED. :)
Seismic Monitor
AOI
AOI
Humor in Comments
Thanks, mel! So how are you? Everything good, I hope?
And g_dspeed on recovery!
Did you take a look at that link I sent ya? Forward it to NRAAmy too if you think it might help...
My surgeon is a little less optimistic about my need for pain meds, but I hope you're right...getting tired of my daily routine of two of these at this time, one of these at this time, etc...thtanks!
Thanks, Dak! hopefully I'll be back in here on Saturday or Sunday...LST (Mrs. Flood) will let you guys know on Thursday how things went...
Hey if they give you some good pharmaceuticals... take em.. thats what they are for...
trust me, Orca, I have no fear of taking meds as prescribed...I have had days in the last year or so where they were what got me through the day
Ummm, Junky? That story was about spikes in gynecological surgery; what procedure were you thinking that me, a 6'4" man in his late forties was having done? LOL
Flood, you have mail.
I totally know how you feel with taking meds just to live
South Florida StormWatch
(main site)
PDA: Preliminary Damage Assessments
IA: Individual Assistance
PA: Public Assistance
National Situation Update: Monday, November 16, 2009
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Significant National Weather
Northeast
Temperatures will cool across the northeast and Mid-Atlantic as a cold front moves in, producing highs from the 40s in northern New England and upstate New York to the 60s in the Mid-Atlantic.
South
A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to Arkansas, Louisiana, eastern Texas, Mississippi and western Tennessee. Behind the front, gusty northwest winds will develop over much of Texas and Oklahoma. The front will slowly move east tomorrow and Wednesday, spreading scattered showers through Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia.
Midwest
A low pressure system will move slowly across the Midwest today and Tuesday, with rainy and breezy conditions expected over the mid-Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes.
Areas from Missouri to central Illinois and southern Iowa may see an additional 1 to 4 inches of rain. Snow or a rain/snow mixture is expected over parts of Kansas, southern Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
West
A cold front will move into the Northwest today and Tuesday, bringing significant moisture to Washington and Oregon. Heavy rain will target northwest Washington, causing possible river flooding in the Olympics and northern Cascades; snow in the higher elevations could cause avalanches. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet will be possible by Tuesday along the Cascade crest. Wind gusts between 60 and 80 mph can be expected along the immediate coast of Oregon and Washington (NOAA%u2019s National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)
NOAA Reports October Third Coolest on Record with Highest Precipitation
According to NOAA%u2019s State of the Climate report, October was the third coolest month on record for average temperatures across the contiguous United States. Below average temperatures were recorded in all regions except the Southeast. The October average temperature of 50.8 degrees F was 4.0 degrees below the 20th Century average.
Preliminary data also indicates that October was the wettest month on record, reaching 4.15 inches, or 2.04 inches above the average between 1901 and 2001. This was the first month since December 2007 that no region in the United States recorded below normal precipitation.
East Coast Nor'Easter
* New Jersey EOC has returned to normal operations
* Governor has declared a State of Emergency for six coastal counties (Atlantic, Burlington, Cape May, Cumberland, Monmouth and Ocean Counties)
* Several hundred homes and about 50 to 100 businesses were affected by the storm, which also caused significant beach erosion and flooding along the Jersey Shore
* Joint IA and PA PDAs for seven counties are scheduled to begin on Tuesday, November 17; additional counties may be added later
* Virginia%u2019s Governor declared a State of Emergency
* Virginia EOC remains partially activated for possible hazmat issues (barrel recovery in some of the affected areas)
* LNO remains at the Virginia EOC
* Chief Medical Examiner has declared four fatalities due to the storm
* Power has been restored to the majority of the affected areas, with only about 300 outages remaining
* One shelter open in Norfolk City; population 50
* Alabama will begin PA PDAs for two counties on November 17
* Louisiana will begin IA and PA PDAs on November 17 for two parishes
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Monday afternoon.
Western Pacific
No activity threatening United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
Wildfire Update
Note: Fire season is coming to an end - the National Interagency Coordination Center will issue reports only on Fridays unless there is significant activity.
%u2022 National Preparedness Level: 1
%u2022 National Fire Activity as of Friday, November 13, 2009
%u2022 Initial attack activity: Light (108 new fires)
%u2022 New large fires: 1
%u2022 Large fires contained: 1
%u2022 Uncontained large fires: 0
%u2022 States affected: AZ and MO (NIFC)
SUNDAY Nov. 15 SIT REPORT
Link
SATURDAY Nov. 14 SIT REPORT
Link
Add-on: DangNabIt. Will re-post on NEW BLOG. grrrrrr
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