Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized
A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.
Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.
Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.
None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.
Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.
Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.
Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.
I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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now all of a sudden we have more trofs? lol
I dont buy it, its not gaining any latitude now and the model consensus has been way off this season
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
actually Pat he is right, or did you not notice the red circle the NHC gave 98L?
I in agreement here Drak,a early Fall in the Se CONUS bodes well for the door staying closed.
But those who "wish",..maybe re-load and start thinking about what Xmas will bring ya.
virtually everyone on here is just a blogger.
forecasting is tricky even for the pros after all it is not an exact science.
but despite all the posts ive read on here ex-fred still could re-develop just based on
upper level conditions and ocean heat content alone.
not to mention we are now in the peak part of the hurricane season.
if systems cant develop in 5kts of relaxed shear with already a low present and 88
degree water temps, in the peak of the season when then can they develop?
Might, it's a strong word.. It may not become a TD tomorrow. Though I see invests like these looks ragged one day, then ends up getting a good convection pulse from DMAX that night and become a TD the next morning. So I dunno.. lol
A good Link to Bookmark.
A good Link to Learn UTC time and when Models are Posted. Save it.
ATCF images (Hurricane Track Models)
See, thats the joy of being Married.. I am not entitled to an opinion.. especially based on facts :)
Caribbean still appears restless
Trust me... KOG and myself will be hoping for the same in Florida.. all Winter
Long term...
models have been really struggling with maintaining any sense of
run-to-run consistency with regards to next cut-off low evolution.
The GFS now shows a strong retrogression of the cut-off low now
west of the Continental Divide and stronger high pressure ridge
building over the middle of the country and deep troughing along
the East Coast. If this scenario plays out then any surface front
will certainly struggle to make it into area from the west.
Teleconnections would favor a better chance of a back door front
settling into area from the northeast if East Coast trough
continues to amplify as models suggest. This pattern is anomalous
for middle September so confidence is not so high on model solutions.
A good compromise would be the hold onto 30 percent probability of precipitation each day
mainly driven by Gulf and lake breezes as climatology would
suggest and await better model consistency before placing
confidence on any frontal passages next week. Temperatures should
be near to a few degrees above normal for the week. 24/rr
now is not the time to be a "model" fan i dont think.
The GFS is widely reguarded as one of the best and it doesnt even
see the circulation of the very "huge" and obvious 98l at all.
*poof* nothing.
watch the latest GFS animation for yourself DrakLink
Just read Dr. Masters blog and I have to say StormW told me last night that there was a chance about remnants of exfred affecting SC/NC coast. Thatd great meterology forecasting when you can see all potential avenues for storms paths.
Too early to tell as of now.
They have had many storms going further north and east than where they ended up going; mainly due to overdoing the strength of the storms.
I dont buy the consensus on 98L until we see it gain some latitude and gain some strength.
CMC showing remnants being abosrbed by the front then regenerating.
that would depend on how much colder...
that is a possibility
Both. Conditions should favor cyclogenesis storms in the Gulf of Mexico that bring wetter conditions to the Gulf Coast States and Mid-Atlantic States.
Read the intensity section here in my update.
LOL.. And true..
How about some snow in Miami? or not that cold?
Uncalled for and rude...
Pretty typical with el nino years as the storm track is futher southward.
Overview
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At this time 98L continues to show signs of strengthening even though convection is waning. At 2PM EDT you can expect the NHC to keep it's red circle despite convection loss. Chances are we will have our next TD at 5PM. If convection continues to drop then you can expect a orange circle at 8PM and no TD. For right now we should continue to monitor its progress.
Track
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At this moment in time... Scenario #1, if 98L stays weak >40MPH, this will most likely run into Puerto Rico and then La Española, and will likely die out. Scenario #2, 98L's winds are between 41 to 73MPH it will most likely go north of the islands, Puerto Rico and then curve out to sea. Scenario #3, 98L has winds of <74MPH, it will most likely curve out to sea before it reaches the northern Antilles.
-MiamiHurricanes09
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