Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

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Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


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Quoting BahaHurican:
Storms change names from ATL to PAC because it is a different basin. Storms that pass from EPac to CPac to WPac generally keep the same name. Best example I can remember is the longlived hurricane John of 1994. Here is what I found at wikipedia abt this storm.

Hurricane John (also known as Typhoon John, international designation: 9420, JTWC designation: 10E) formed during the 1994 Pacific hurricane season and became both the longest-lasting and the farthest-traveling tropical cyclone ever observed. John formed during the strong El Niño of 1991 to 1994 and peaked as a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, the highest categorization for hurricanes.

Over the course of its existence, it followed a 13,000 kilometres (8,100 mi) path from the eastern Pacific to the western Pacific and back to the central Pacific, lasting 31 days in total.[1] Because it existed in both the eastern and western Pacific, John was one of a small number of tropical cyclones to be designated as both a hurricane and a typhoon. Despite lasting for a full month, John barely affected land at all, bringing only minimal effects to the Hawaiian islands and a United States military base on Johnston Atoll.

HaHA Baha! I finally beat you at something. Look at post 1184. Are these questions making you a little sea-sick, like I am?

Quoting CosmicEvents:

Yea....but if he somehow restrengthens enough to be a TD, even for 3 hours, then the average margin of error goes up to 3000+ miles for all the models...except bam-bam. That's going back 14 days, but I would think that a 3000 mile "miss" would set the record......

Actually the -1s going across there means the model wasn't run specifically on Fred that day... Model wasn't run.. there is no error.

But my storm was more "fun" than yours, Grothar... John was cool as an example of how a recordsetting cat 5 hurricane can be one with an unretired name.... lol

Tampa, ts AFTER it crosses fla?

Buoy 41047, right near the remnant, is capturing the full effects of the remnant trough/artist, formerly known as Fred....

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 350 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 5.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 84 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.99 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): 0.01 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.9 %uFFFDF
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.3 %uFFFDF
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.7 %uFFFDF
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 88.2 %uFFFDF

Quoting foggymyst:
Tampa, ts AFTER it crossed fla?

I wonder if Floridians are putting up their shutters tonight?

BahaHurican--

"Storms change names from ATL to PAC because it is a different basin. Storms that pass from EPac to CPac to WPac generally keep the same name. Best example I can remember is the longlived hurricane John of 1994. Here is what I found at wikipedia abt this storm."


Thanks for the info, I didn't know, that as althought it is the Pacific Basin as a whole.

As to whether since we had East Pacific, Central Pacfic, and Far East Pacific Cyclone offices, as to whether the East/Central might be different as far as naming goes from that of the Far East Pacific. Thankx Again! :-)

Well 07L did it again, deep burst convection to nothing. However, it is still in 5-10 knots, but hasn't taken advantage. DMAX is it's only hope for regeneration in my opinion.

ok baha and grother give me an example of one going from the atlantic into the pacific and what that does with the name change. Thanks you guys are helping me learn and making me laugh all at the same time!

Dakster..cute.. Ike, I am not :p

IKE - Only for those that have an insurance mitigatrion inspection...

Have they started evac'ing your area for Cat 5 Fred yet?

Quoting Dakster:
IKE - Only for those that have an insurance mitigatrion inspection...

Have they started evac'ing your area for Cat 5 Fred yet?

Yup...they all headed to Tennessee and points north. I've boarded up and will be leaving early AM.

Quoting IKE:


Yup...they all headed to Tennessee and points north. I've boarded up and will be leaving early AM.

Wow.. You are taking it seriously, evacuating all the way back to the United States...

***9/19/2009 Tropics Question of the Day FINAL RESULTS***
A - 3
B - 6 (Majority = Final Answer)
C - 3
D - 1

Quoting IKE:


Yup...they all headed to Tennessee and points north. I've boarded up and will be leaving early AM.

Dont bring you know who bud with ya lmao

Last visible before blackout. Fred is the baby spec, centered near 26N and 71W. I zoomed in for the full effects....

Quoting tacoman:
reed you still trying to pull fred from his grave let him RIP..

i see pink taco still has nothing informative to type.

Fred = Pop-up Thunder showers, typical coastal afternoon shower. They pop up rain heavy for about 30 min to an hour then disappear, only to reappear the next day around the same time.

Quoting IKE:
Buoy 41047, right near the remnant, is capturing the full effects of the remnant trough/artist, formerly known as Fred....

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 350 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 5.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 84 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.99 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): 0.01 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.9 %uFFFDF
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.3 %uFFFDF
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.7 %uFFFDF
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 88.2 %uFFFDF




I wonder if Floridians are putting up their shutters tonight?

LOL! no we are not!

Quoting Dakster:


Wow.. You are taking it seriously, evacuating all the way back to the United States...

Yup...we're lettin em have it.

Quoting will40:
Dont bring you know who bud with ya lmao

He's the only one left in south Florida. He's sitting in a lounge chair on the beach waiting for it.

Ha Ha Ike

Quoting AllStar17:
***9/19/2009 Tropics Question of the Day FINAL RESULTS***
A - 3
B - 6 (Majority = Final Answer)
C - 3
D - 1

Want to look over the answer again Allstar?

Quoting TampaSpin:


Yes in the GOM....Its just my opinion...there is a cold front coming that will erode the West side of the High and also a MidLevel spin coming out of the Caribbean into the GOM about the same time.....as those that have read my WebSite update the combination of the 3 i am calling the minature Perfect Storm.

and if this was to happen, you would say it would go to the eastern or western side of the GOM?

IKE check mail

Since 1953, the following seasons have had no names retired from that season: 1953, 1956, 1958, 1962, 1968, 1971, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1986, 1987, 1993, 1994, 1997 and 2006.

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
So you're saying exFred is going to pull a Katrina? What do you base this on? Should I go to Home Depot for supplies now? Why are the local mets saying nothing?

Ummm. The j/k at the end means JUST KIDDING. Ike and I were having a little tit for tat...

Theoretically, a hurricane or tropical storm of any strength can have its name retired; retirement is based entirely on the level of damage caused by a storm. However, until 1972, no Category 1 hurricane had its name retired, and no named tropical storm had its name retired until 2001. This is at least partially due to the fact that weaker storms tend to cause less damage, and the few weak storms that have had their names retired caused most of their destruction through heavy rainfall rather than winds.

Since 1953, 73 storms have had their names retired. Of these, two (Carol and Edna) were reused after the storm for which they were retired but were later retroactively retired, and two others (Hilda and Janet) were included on later lists of storm names but were not reused before being retroactively retired. Historical records are unclear on the status of Gracie from the 1959 season. The official NHC site does not report Gracie as a retired name,[2] but it is widely referred to as retired, including by other official sources.[3]

If all the names on a season's normal list are used up, storms are then named after the letters of the Greek alphabet (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, etc.) Unlike the normal names, these cannot be retired. If a storm with a Greek name manages to reach the strength and have the impact that would otherwise lead to retirement, the Greek letter would be listed among the retired names with a footnote stating that the name would still be in use for future storms.

Since 1953, the following seasons have had no names retired from that season: 1953, 1956, 1958, 1962, 1968, 1971, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1986, 1987, 1993, 1994, 1997 and 2006.

Count em 18 not 17

Quoting TampaSpin:


YOur an example why i hate many on the F'n blog!

don't worry about him tampa; he has been singling u out since yesterday for some reason? he never has any decent ?'s or facts to add to this blog. hopefully admin will ban him soon!

In all seriousness, the NHC would do this blog a big favor by dropping the remnant trough on the next TWO. There's nothing left to keep giving it a yellow circle.

IKE - Either that or color the WHOLE basin in yellow. Afterall, yellow means 0%-30%.

Quoting WeatherStudent:
It's absolutely surreal to think that this country might go 4 consecutive years, back-to-back without receiving the direct impact of a major cane; however, when we are finally threaten by a major hurricane, I dred and fear to say, that it'll prob be a catastrophic one. A final FYI: of course, the last major cane to affect the Conus was Hurricane Wilma, on Oct. 21st, 2005, which affected SW Florida, as we all remember. In closing, time will tell, we'll see what materializes. This period of extraordinary luck will end, my fear is that when it does come to an end, when ever that just happens to be that is, it'll be in a very, very big way. Thoughts, everyone?

Did you miss the whole Ike thing last year? Really...get some help...

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98L 00 Z Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

Quoting IKE:
In all seriousness, the NHC would do this blog a big favor by dropping the remnant trough on the next TWO. There's nothing left to keep giving it a yellow circle.

You could be right, even though it's yet again blowing new convection, it just isn't going. It would put the blog to rest :)

Quoting Seasidecove:
BahaHurican--

"Storms change names from ATL to PAC because it is a different basin. Storms that pass from EPac to CPac to WPac generally keep the same name. Best example I can remember is the longlived hurricane John of 1994. Here is what I found at wikipedia abt this storm."


Thanks for the info, I didn't know, that as althought it is the Pacific Basin as a whole.

As to whether since we had East Pacific, Central Pacfic, and Far East Pacific Cyclone offices, as to whether the East/Central might be different as far as naming goes from that of the Far East Pacific. Thankx Again! :-)

I know each area operates its own list of names. But when one crosses into the other[s], the name is continued. I suppose it would be true of the ATL / EPac, but most of the time storms just don't survive the crossing. So they get redesignated...

I thought that may be chaff.. Surprised the local (MLB) confirms..

ONLY ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER EC FL AND ADJACENT ATLC ARE
NON-PRECIPITATION ECHOES AT THIS TIME. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SMOKE
PLUME ACROSS NW VOLUSIA/N LAKE AND EASTERN MARION FINALLY APPEARS TO
BE THINNING. AND ECHOES OFFSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY ARE LIKELY CHAFF.
HAVE REMOVED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE INTERIOR BUT KEPT A 20% POP FOR
THE COAST AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE ATLC
PREFERABLY ALG CONVERGENT LINES...AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING A
FEW TO THE COAST.

$$

KELLY


I'm using restraint in not ranting about having clouds of god knows what being sprayed about.. Wonder if it has anything to do with Fred-ex..

or this trough.. we've had really neat clouds, sunset color was a rare shade..

98L 00 Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

Quoting reedzone:


You could be right, even though it's yet again blowing new convection, it just isn't going. It would put the blog to rest :)

The NHC is not in the business of "doing this blog a favor."

Quoting Skyepony:
or this trough.. we've had really neat clouds, sunset color was a rare shade..

Yeah, the colors in South Florida have been neat. Although tonight it looked like Tornado weather. The color was so surreal.

It was a break from the RAIN ALL DAY LONG here.

98L looking really sad before blackout =P
lets see how it looks after it