Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized
A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.
Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.
Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.
None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.
Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.
Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.
Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.
I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.
Jeff Masters
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im too addicted to WU =P
and here we go I think
Knew you would be back. Its like giving up cigarettes, isn't. Just one last puff. Glad you're back. This blog is as quiet as the season.
Church was packed Sunday morning as we prepared what was going to be the worst hurricane in our history.
Ironically the calender dates and days for September 2009 are the same as September 1998.
At the same time we were celebrating our Independence
"Anyone that thinks xFred is done....might want to rethink and re-evaluate there conclusion...
WE will have TS Fred again in 36hrs...."
Check the date and time....This was over 50 hours ago.
Another bold prediction that did not come true!!!
there have been some even bolder than that
I would agree.
yep ironic =P
Georges 11yrs ago
Sept. 19, 1998 6:46pm
xD yep
Hey Hurricane009! Look at the buoy data. Pressures are falling in the Bahamas! Not much, but they are steadily falling.
Link
I know. Just in the last day xfred has been mentioned in the same sentence with Andrew, Katrina, Humberto and Frederic.
Never has so much been said about so little!
quickscat from buoy off of NC
Pressures are falling, too! Again, not by much, but every buoy has been dropping every hour!
got the Keys on the 25th
Don't jump the gun yet 009. Convection is flaring up a little, but it will take quite a bit more before a depression could form. There are still a lot of factors against the system right now. See how long this flare-up lasts. Patience.
Where exactly is the front in relation to Fred? How many miles?
Yes; we had roughly 90 mph sustained at the State Gov Center in Marathon. Higher towards Key West where the eye brushed. I had minor flooding at the house and lost nearly every tree. We were lucky nonetheless. - take care
It's time to stop constantly down-casting Fred.
It's not too late for you to hop on the regeneration bandwagon.
I wasn't so lucky
Georges crossed PR from east to west, causing 7deaths I believe and 2billion in damages
so yep nasty one =P
and then later came Mitch which killed thousands :| that one was just too deadly
dude there is no front around freddie its a weakening trough
That's the last straw for you buddy...see you later.
Still don't know what to expect of ex-Fred. The one true thing that can be said is that the window of opportunity for redevelopment is closing, slowly but surely.
Drifting ever closer and ever closer to the islands....
the convection isn't developing on top of the LLC
High continues to build across the E CONUS... RGB Sat images also reflect this as you can see by the movement of the CU fields... also WND conditions have become a bit more breeze from the NE across CFL to say the least.
In regards 98L... it has appeared it has slowed down some as it tries to consolidate better.
We shall see what DMAX has in store for both of these systems tomorrow AM.
In my opinion this system wont hit fla it will stay offshore
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