Little change to Erika; Jimena makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane
Tropical Storm Erika remains weak and disorganized, and the future track and intensity of the storm remain highly uncertain. The center has jumped several times over the past 12 hours, and now lies exposed to view, west of the main area of heavy thunderstorms. Radar animations out of Martinique show little organization of the echoes, and satellite imagery shows no low-level spiral bands or upper-level outflow. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have found a slight increase in the surface winds, up to 45 mph. They noted that the surface center was displaced 12 miles north of the center they found at 1500 feet, which is the sign of a disorganized storm undergoing wind shear.
The forecast for Erika
Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the storm's current state of disorganization is allowing the center to make random jumps as it reforms near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This makes for a low-confidence forecast. The future track of the storm will depend upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. The intensity forecast models did a poor job with Tropical Storm Danny last week, and appear to be repeating that poor performance with Erika. All of the major intensity forecast models predict substantial strengthening of Erika. This seems unlikely to occur, given the storm's current disorganization, and the predicted increase in wind shear along the path of Erika to 20 - 25 knots 3 - 5 days from now. The more southerly than expected track of the storm also brings the possibility that Erika will encounter the high mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The GFS, GFDL, and Canadian models predict Erika will pass near Puerto Rico on Friday, then move over Hispaniola on Saturday. Erika in its current weak state would probably not survive an encounter with these islands. A wide range of scenarios is still possible for Erika, from outright dissipation (as forecast by the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Erika is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast if it is still around five days from now. Potential landfall locations range from Florida on Tuesday to North Carolina on Wednesday. The NOGAPS model has Erika potentially missing the U.S. entirely, scooting northwards between North Carolina and Bermuda. My current expectation is that Erika will dissipate on Saturday when it encounters Hispaniola.
Figure 1. Afternoon image of Tropical Storm Erika. The swirl of clouds just west of Guadeloupe island is the center. This center was what I had labeled a "false center" in this morning's post, and has taken over as the main center this afternoon.
Hurricane Jimena hits Baja
Hurricane Jimena made lanndfall on Mexico's Baja Peninsula late this morning near Cabo San Lazaro as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Jimena is the 2nd strongest hurricane to hit Baja's west coast since record keeping began in 1949. The only stronger storm was Hurricane Norbert, which made landfall in 2008 on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph. Jimena has now weakened to a Category 1 storm, and will continue to weaken as it hits colder waters and interacts with land. No deaths or major damage have been reported from the storm.
Figure 2. Hurricane Jimena on Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2009, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
California fire webcams
As I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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A Kink in da Front.
"Vary" Interesting,..
I gotta go with stormno on this one,cept Im feeling more Mid-Gulfish on the Genesis.
AGXX40 KNHC 021906
MIMATS
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
306 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2009
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH LARGE CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE. LATEST ADVISORY
HAS LOWERED THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS TO 35 KT GUST TO 45 KT.
STRONGEST WINDS PRESENTLY IN NE SEMICIRCLE AND SE QUADRANT OF
THE STORM. THE S PORTION OF ERIKA WILL BRUSH THE NE CORNER OF
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT TROUGH FRI. ELSEWHERE IN CARIBBEAN...ERIKA HAS
FLATTENED PRES GRADIENT AND EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHED ANY STRONG
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN. ONLY SMALL AREA ALONG COAST OF
COLOMBIA ACCOUNTS FOR A MODERATE BREEZE WHILE REMAINING CARIBBEA
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT.
WARNINGS
ATLC...
.TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 15N...AMZ087.
CARIBBEAN...
.TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 16N E OF 66W...AMZ086.
GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE
$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES
I've been watching there myself. Is it as painful for you to agree with him as it is me?
With the storm, we will set family aginast family and only the Padishah Emperor and House Harkonnen will profit....MUAHAHAHAHAHA!
Interesting storm. I note the BAMs are in fairly close agreement on track. Anyone know what shear is forecast to be along that track (along the islands or paralleling them south in the Caribbean waters)
Have you been keeping track of the Hurricane Hunter data in the past couple hours?
Weatherstudent is this you??????
But conditions will be favorable for her in 2-3 days.
Welcome. We can always use another Weather Student on here.
Your avatar reminded me, where is Canesrule today?
Sorry, you're wrong.
No...Im well aware who He is.
But we all entitled to our opinions,..if not,well..we wouldnt be America.
For the people lurking..
Continue to monitor Tropical Storm Erika. Models have no clue on strength and track as of today, really depends if it can grab that next Anticyclone. The NHC has low confidence but they're right, Erika may dissipate, a 50/50 chance. Give it time and don't listen to the people who are declaring it gone. :)
mootools-wu-1.11[1].js
It is the JS/Exploit-Packed.c.gen
I hope some have forwarded this info to Admin.
I will also as I depart.
Yeah, I am with SSIGAGuy on that. All 3 BAM flavors take the dirty (most convective) side right over the middle of Hispaniola. Shear will not matter on that track.
You're to young to remember that line!!
Location: 16.4°N 61.7°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Location: 16.4°N 61.7°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Ah ah ah *halting noises made by the Count*
Naked swirl is the center.
The only person in here to comment on that...aside from me, and we all know what a tosspot I am...
..."Up on yer feet,Moods are for women and Cattle...
Note the Pressures Mid-Gulf Man"..!
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ERIKA IS ELONGATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT. THE SWIRL SOUTHWEST OF GUADELOUPE APPEARS TO BE
PART OF THIS ELONGATED CIRCULATION...BUT IS NOT THE MEAN CENTER OF
THE OVERALL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT
ERIKA IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 44
KT AND SFMR DATA WERE BETWEEN 35-40 KT. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST
WINDS WERE NEAR A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER AND NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ERIKA HAS A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD WITH INCREASING SHEAR LIKELY AS THE
STORM NEARS THE GREATER ANTILLES. WHILE SOME INTENSIFICATION CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT 250 MB OVER ERIKA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...OR
INCREASE...AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR HISPANIOLA. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS RESTRENGTHENING OF ERIKA...THE
GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING. THE NHC
FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SHOWS DISSIPATION OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 5 DAYS. ONE ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION IS THAT
INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA CAUSES AN EVEN FASTER DEMISE OF ERIKA.
THE LONG-TERM MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ABOUT 275/9. DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED TO THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST PRIMARILY BY A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE
THIS MORNING...PERHAPS DUE TO THE WEAKER INITIAL STATE OF ERIKA.
THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AS WELL...REMAINING WEST OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 16.4N 61.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 16.8N 62.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 17.4N 64.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 18.0N 66.4W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 04/1800Z 18.7N 67.9W 30 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 20.0N 70.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 21.5N 73.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Quick, turn reft! No I mean light.
Yep and still moving West or slightly South of West and not anywhere near the forecast points! Mind of her own that's for sure!
LMAO
Hey there Baybuddy good to see you on here....
AOI
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AOI
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