TD 2 struggling; new African wave bears watching
Tropical Depression Two is struggling. The depression still has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm this week, but the dry, Saharan air that surrounds the storm, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear, are interfering with the storm's organization. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is limited to the west side of the depression. This is due to strong winds out of the southeast that are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. The intensity and coverage of these thunderstorms is meager, thanks to the large amount of dry air to TD 2's north that is getting wrapped into the circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a well-formed surface circulation, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and will not change much over the next three days. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, it does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will eventually be able to become Tropical Storm Ana sometime in the next three days. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands. For now, TD 2 doesn't concern me as much as the new tropical wave to its southeast, just off the coast of Africa.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left center of image) and a new tropical wave (right side of image), newly emerged from the coast of Africa.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A strong tropical wave with some rotation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity left the coast of Africa yesterday, and is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave late this week. Both of these models indicate that the wave would track further south than Tropical Depression Two, and could impact the Lesser Antilles Islands in about seven days. This storm bears close attention over the coming days.
Two other tropical waves, one that just passed through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 300 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
Felicia moves through Hawaiian Islands as a tropical depression
Tropical Storm Felicia weakened to a tropical depression before passing through the Hawaiian Islands yesterday. The storm brought scattered heavy rains of 1 - 2 inches to the islands, and no damage was reported. Felicia is only the 10th tropical cyclone of tropical depression strength or higher to hit the islands since 1950. Four other tropical cyclones have passed within 75 miles of the islands during that time period.
Be careful clicking on external links in blog comments
A comment may have been posted on my blog over the weekend containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. The exact link responsible has eluded us thus far, and we are also investigating the possibility that a bad banner ad was responsible. To provide an extra layer of protection, we've installed software on the blogs that will now warn users that they are leaving the site when they click on an external link, so that one has do an extra click to go to an external site. This will give users an opportunity to think twice before clicking on a potentially dangerous link. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by the attack. Please submit a support ticket to help us out in the future for any issues of this nature.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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yup all so the nhc said they will give X TD 9E a 30-50% ch of comeing backing
yes thanks
Listen, you jerk - Keep has been here for a long time and is well-respected and appreciated for his contributions to this board.
You've been flagged and reported in email to admin as a troublemaker. You might learn something here if you keep your mouth closed and your ears open!
Congratulations! You've just been added to the lists!
No matter how unlikely a scenario may appear to be, it must still be taken into account. Wasn't that Sherlock Holmes' philosophy or am I getting him mixed up with another person?
(Animation)
13/0545 UTC 13.9N 36.3W TOO WEAK 02L
989
WHXX01 KWBC 131247
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1247 UTC THU AUG 13 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902009) 20090813 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090813 1200 090814 0000 090814 1200 090815 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 22.5W 12.5N 25.1W 13.0N 28.5W 13.5N 32.3W
BAMD 11.6N 22.5W 12.0N 25.1W 12.3N 27.9W 12.4N 30.8W
BAMM 11.6N 22.5W 12.2N 25.0W 12.5N 27.9W 12.7N 31.2W
LBAR 11.6N 22.5W 12.0N 24.6W 12.2N 27.3W 12.4N 30.3W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 35KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090815 1200 090816 1200 090817 1200 090818 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 36.6W 15.5N 47.2W 19.0N 59.9W 22.9N 69.5W
BAMD 12.5N 34.0W 12.9N 41.1W 13.5N 48.5W 13.8N 55.1W
BAMM 12.9N 34.7W 13.6N 42.6W 14.6N 51.5W 15.7N 60.7W
LBAR 12.6N 33.8W 13.4N 42.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 50KTS 65KTS 66KTS 71KTS
DSHP 50KTS 65KTS 66KTS 71KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 22.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 11.4N LONM12 = 21.1W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 19.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
13/1145 UTC 11.3N 22.6W T1.0/1.0 90L.
90L is already stronger than 02L.
That would be terrible.
Oh my!
Why don't you link those images from the NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division (Code 7500) Tropical Cyclone Page which doesn't generate the security certificate errors? The same images are available from that site that you get from the backup fnmoc tcweb site.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
Regulars, please flag this disrespectuful idiot and report to admin! Thanks.
Morning all!
You got something on topic to say?
From Wikipedia:
Hacker (computer security), someone involved in computer security
My stupid question for the day...has any place been hit back-to-back by a hurricane (within days of each other)?
Thanks, Melissa
Wooddent it tho?
1. Die forever.
2. Die then regenerate.
3. Weaken really badly but make a comeback (like Andrew).
4. Die then merge with the tropical wave north of the Carib. and form something else.
Therein lies the result...
I have a dumb question. If the wave off Africa behind TD2 is getting so much attention, why isn't it an Invest yet?
The environment isn't favorable for development where it is now, but some of the models are showing energy from the wave making its way into the GOM next week where it could merit watching, as the environment is forecast to be more conductive then.
to say ?
from dictionary.com
Hacker "a microcomputer user who attempts to gain unauthorized access to proprietary computer systems."
btw, it's hot and humid outside in NE FL. <---on topic.
You are in Key West - isn't that mandatory dress code there?
Nevermind. I digress....
Everything else but model support I agree with. It already has that.
Shear played its part, too.
If you are that concerned about KOTG maybe you should move to a different blog so we can keep this one on weather.
Remember Hurricane Georges in September 1998? Born off the coast of Africa and traveled a long way to Biloxi, Mississippi!
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