TD 2 struggling; new African wave bears watching
Tropical Depression Two is struggling. The depression still has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm this week, but the dry, Saharan air that surrounds the storm, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear, are interfering with the storm's organization. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is limited to the west side of the depression. This is due to strong winds out of the southeast that are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. The intensity and coverage of these thunderstorms is meager, thanks to the large amount of dry air to TD 2's north that is getting wrapped into the circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a well-formed surface circulation, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and will not change much over the next three days. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, it does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will eventually be able to become Tropical Storm Ana sometime in the next three days. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands. For now, TD 2 doesn't concern me as much as the new tropical wave to its southeast, just off the coast of Africa.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left center of image) and a new tropical wave (right side of image), newly emerged from the coast of Africa.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A strong tropical wave with some rotation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity left the coast of Africa yesterday, and is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave late this week. Both of these models indicate that the wave would track further south than Tropical Depression Two, and could impact the Lesser Antilles Islands in about seven days. This storm bears close attention over the coming days.
Two other tropical waves, one that just passed through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 300 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
Felicia moves through Hawaiian Islands as a tropical depression
Tropical Storm Felicia weakened to a tropical depression before passing through the Hawaiian Islands yesterday. The storm brought scattered heavy rains of 1 - 2 inches to the islands, and no damage was reported. Felicia is only the 10th tropical cyclone of tropical depression strength or higher to hit the islands since 1950. Four other tropical cyclones have passed within 75 miles of the islands during that time period.
Be careful clicking on external links in blog comments
A comment may have been posted on my blog over the weekend containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. The exact link responsible has eluded us thus far, and we are also investigating the possibility that a bad banner ad was responsible. To provide an extra layer of protection, we've installed software on the blogs that will now warn users that they are leaving the site when they click on an external link, so that one has do an extra click to go to an external site. This will give users an opportunity to think twice before clicking on a potentially dangerous link. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by the attack. Please submit a support ticket to help us out in the future for any issues of this nature.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Cuz I know you love the Bozo pics, StormW.
Linked for those with Coulrophobia (look it up)
LOL and once again your little decoder ring is better than everyone else. Im sorry but i couldn't help it guys. This is too funny.
BWAAAAAHHHHAAHAHAHAHAHA
Sorry, couldn't contain myself.
BTW StormW, figure out how to insert the loops? I may have given you bad info.
Holy Crap! Now I remember why I started with bad dreams as a child!
PUT IT AWAY!!! IT SCARES ME!! LOL
They're saying he's stormtop.
you know, because of the swine flu ive avoided contact with people and they get offended even when I explain its swine flu related!
:/
why is being alive so underrated? lol
Like I said, they wanted to incorporate all the major languages of the Atlantic in the names; hence the Edouard and the Jose and the Juan, etc.
Welcome to Weather Underground! I'd say that would be a great update! Pretty impressive for someone your age to know that.
Go look at the CIMSS shear maps and tendencies. The upper atmosphere operates in a much similar manner as the lower level with highs and lows that move around causing shear all over the globe.
Why is swine flu so overrated?? LOL
You are on a roll today, you know that? *wink wink nudge nudge*
thanks i do try! :D
Apparently the CMC shows Bill getting hungry for Ana.
It isn't! People die from it :/ At least thats what i've heard in the news ...
I know news ain't so trustworthy but ... :/
At least hand sanitizing and facemask folks have made good profits this year
That has "Bill" absorbing "Ana"
Fujiwhara! That's the first time I think I've ever seen a computer run successfully model a Fujiwhara transition!
someone ... *anyone*
Wow...the African wave takes over TD2
The prude police I hope! So what do you think of the chances for the GOM? I'm not wishcasting but it is getting pretty juicy while the blog fights over the naming rights to a TD and African wave days away from land!
I don't think thats likely with Tropical Depression Two's forward speed the way it is right now.
A very small percentage of US citizens with it die.
Shear is defined as any change in the wind velocity with height. Now remember that "velocity" is a vector. In other words it has a direction and a magnitude (speed). Any change in either direction or speed causes shear.
To be able to predict shear accurately, you have to be able to predict both the direction and speed of the winds at all levels of the atmosphere...which is not so easy to do.
I doubt that's likely but boy would it be cool to see an interaction like that.
I haven't forgot. I will be keeping an eye out...
well now that would send Bill + Ana to the sea =]
I like that model =P
High Sea Forecast for eastern Atlantic Ocean
Tropical storm ( Nr 2 ), 1006 near 14.3N 33.8W at 12/15 UTC, moving west at 11 kt.
Expected near 14.2N 35.4W at 13/00 UTC, then near 14.2N 37.6W by 13 at 12 UTC.
---
2 min later when NHC doesn't upgrade
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 2 IS CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 33.8W BY 1715
UTC MOVING WEST AT 11 KT.
HAHA
Yeah, I guess... I'm really anxious to start meteorology school in January :) Soon I'll be able to understand all of these things better!
Ya the FTP site also had TD2 as Ana for a moment then reverted back to TD once the NHC's advisory came out...weird.
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