Two African waves worth mentioning
There are two African tropical waves worth mentioning today, though neither looks particularly threatening. A tropical wave near 12N 45W, about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is now surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert. The dry air has disrupted most of the wave's heavy thunderstorm activity, and will continue to make it difficult for this system to develop over the next 2 - 3 days. Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and should remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range over the next 2 - 3 days. Thereafter, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a modest wind shift associated with 97L. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.
A second tropical wave now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands is under 30 knots of wind shear, and has little prospect of development due to the high shear. However, the wave will bring heavy rain to the islands over the next two days.
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days, and I don't expect either of the two African waves mentioned today to develop over at least the next three days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L, 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.
I'll have an update Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
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its all good lol
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These 2 ways helped moisten up the E and C Atlantic regions so far even during a negative MJO face. So can't imagine what could happen during the positive phase that will be approaching towards the end of this month into August.
New ways should have an easier time keeping their convection(s) longer in the upcoming weeks.
LMAO
Noticed that Cybr, what will they say at 8 pm is the question....assuming the wave is still looking like it is now.
Currently all 3 models... GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS forecasting shear to lift out... with NOGAPS being the most aggressive and more conductive for development.
Of course this will all remain to be seen as shear tends to be more trickier to forecast as it might not always behave the way you would expect.
It tells you right away why the convection flared up, Keeper showed everyone that convection is waning fast
look at the tight swirl developing just east of Guadeloupe. Definitely a low forming. It's going to be an invest pretty soon. The convection on the eastern side is very strong. Antigua reported winds to 28mph in heavy showers a couple hours ago.
well if a low forms than that is a different story
possible 98l soon if it all hold together imo it will
---
The Increasing Gale or Storm Signal, No. 9, was issued at
1:30 a.m.
This means that winds are expected to increase
significantly.
Molave will be very close to Hong Kong in the next few
hours. Gale force winds are generally affecting Hong Kong.
Winds will strengthen further with heavy rain and squalls.
According to the present track, local winds will turn
southwesterly before daybreak. Places previously sheltered
from the winds will become exposed. Members of the public
should take precautions as soon as possible.
In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at
Tap Mun and Lau Fau Shan were 96 and 84 kilometres per hour
with maximum gusts 148 and 104 kilometres per hour
respectively.
A high water level of 2.9 metres above chart datum is
expected at Quarry Bay between 4:00 a.m. and 7:00 a.m. The
high water level may cause flooding in low-lying areas in
Sheung Wan.
After looking I agree with you
they always say that. but they're probably right with the wave next to the lesser antilles.
Water Vapor (IR3)
my psychic powers tell me...
another explosion today similar to yesterdays..
and tomorrow..
and monday.......
sigh
Hehe...
I 3rdly agree, it's getting sheared, why would they tag it? Maybe if the models are right, later on this will be an interesting feature. For now.. hmmm :/
stop being weird lol
Fascinating insight.
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