Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting stormdude77:

If that isn't a "B", then I need new glasses.

I may upgrade to "C"...

I just wish they'd run the HWRF and GFDL models...

Quoting IKE:


If that isn't a "B", then I need new glasses.

I may upgrade to "C"...

It looks rather impressive.

Quoting IKE:
Looks to me like the center may go just north of Barbados...

If it does that could be trouble for me

Quoting Drakoen:

wow~

Quoting Weather456:
Notice the convective band ahead of 97L is not being sheared. That is a trick I learn back in 04. That signals potential for continued development of this system.

Thanks 456, I was noticing that as well. Good tip :)

Quoting weatherwatcher12:

If it does that could be trouble for me

me too

Quoting weatherwatcher12:

If it does that could be trouble for me

What island....longitude?

This is no suprise to me this storm is getting better organized.It looked good tonight in 10kt shear.Now its entered the 5kt zone.

Quoting CaneWarning:
I just wish they'd run the HWRF and GFDL models...

To see how it explodes?... hehe...

B as of now, maybe C by 2PM.

Good Morning!
I see we have 97L again.
It's looking much better today.

Quoting CaneWarning:
I just wish they'd run the HWRF and GFDL models...

They have never been run on 97L, even the first time it was named an invest. Maybe now they'll make it a priority.

I will say one of our mets in Tampa said the west coast of Florida would have to watch this one if anything got going. He said we had a southwest flow over the state. Now, was he just saying it so you'd watch the news the next time its on? Maybe... But, he is right, I think we are under a southwest flow right now.

Agree, and thank you "burneafterposting", learn a lot from your "posting".You were the only one that base in your knowledge made an accurate forecast.

Morning Chicklit... yup the comeback kid as Ike said. lol.

Quoting SavannahStorm:


They have never been run on 97L, even the first time it was named an invest. Maybe now they'll make it a priority.

I know, I just wonder why not though.

System is quite impressive with each new frame. The outflow/appearance has really improved.

B

Quoting IKE:
System is quite impressive with each new frame. The outflow/appearance has really improved.

Agreed. That's why I asked about the rapid intensification.

Quoting SavannahStorm:


They have never been run on 97L, even the first time it was named an invest. Maybe now they'll make it a priority.

I'm not very concerned with the global models at this stage, especially not the GFDL which is very poor in the cyclogenesis phase. I think the LBAR and BAMS more accurately depict what's happening in its present phase of development...and just good ol' natural "seeing is believing" look as sats, etc, than models.

Quoting Drakoen:


There are no PhD's in here lol

I only meant folks like you,456, Drak and whoever might know more than me which is just about everyone on here. I only go by what it "looks" like to me.

Hmmmmm, not sure about passing north of Barbados. But deffinitely north of Trinidad. May get some showers here. Would love some heavy rain.

Quoting IKE:
System is quite impressive with each new frame. The outflow/appearance has really improved.

If it's able to take full advantage of the current low shear conditions and warm SSTs then it should be able to fight off any low enough shear... say 20k or less and still keep its identity.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I only meant folks like you,456, Drak and whoever might know more than me which is just about everyone on here. I only go by what it "looks" like to me.

Ooops and Ike

If this system develops,i think twc will be emberessed.Esecially after lyons saying upper winds are to strong.

Quoting pottery:
Hmmmmm, not sure about passing north of Barbados. But deffinitely north of Trinidad. May get some showers here. Would love some heavy rain.

Hehe... Pot... be careful for what you wish!!!

I agree 97L is looking much better in the GOES images. Most sites agree about less wind sheer. However, does anyone have any information on the Saharan dust and the effect it may have on the system. It has been very hazy here in S. Fla and through the Caribbean. Welcome back Drak. This is only my second day on this bog, but have always enjoyed your comments.

ok be back in a few minutes

Quoting IKE:


What island....longitude?

He is in Jamaica

I vote "C - red" because I think it's already closing off a circulation. "B" voters are probably right, though. The NHC likes to move in "one small step" instead of leaps-- like when they need to move a forecast track a lot but do it over two or three advisories.

Quoting pottery:
Hmmmmm, not sure about passing north of Barbados. But deffinitely north of Trinidad.

Hey, Pottery. That was my thinking too last evening. But, if it's getting its act together, the natural coriolis initially would nudge it a few degrees north even, despite steering I believe.

Quoting CaneWarning:
I will say one of our mets in Tampa said the west coast of Florida would have to watch this one if anything got going. He said we had a southwest flow over the state. Now, was he just saying it so you'd watch the news the next time its on? Maybe... But, he is right, I think we are under a southwest flow right now.

which met??

C, unless the hurricane center is being conservative it has clear banding and rotation and has a high likelihood of being a tropical depression

Quoting STORMMASTERG:
If this system develops,i think twc will be emberessed.Esecially after lyons saying upper winds are to strong.

Only the TWC? I can think of a few others. But heck we are all humans, I have been wrong with 93L, and the world hasn't ended.

I say high chance of ts by tomorrow,this thing looks better than some tds in the past.

Quoting Grothar:
I agree 97L is looking much better in the GOES images. Most sites agree about less wind sheer. However, does anyone have any information on the Saharan dust and the effect it may have on the system. It has been very hazy here in S. Fla and through the Caribbean. Welcome back Drak. This is only my second day on this bog, but have always enjoyed your comments.

The Dust is pretty much gone out ahead of it the prior wave was like a sponge and absorbed most of it.

Isn't it kind of early to be predicting where 97L is heading?

Quoting Grothar:
I agree 97L is looking much better in the GOES images. Most sites agree about less wind sheer. However, does anyone have any information on the Saharan dust and the effect it may have on the system. It has been very hazy here in S. Fla and through the Caribbean. Welcome back Drak. This is only my second day on this bog, but have always enjoyed your comments.

In my opinion SAL will no longer be an issue for this system... since the SAL that has traversed through the CARIB and now in the S GOM has been decreasing and/or moving into the EPAC.

invest 97L this time yesterday



invest 97L right now

for as smart as some of you are with weather; I am going out on a limb to say there are not too many spelling bee champs in here!

Brennan is a PhD. I'm still going to go with orange.

Quoting Grothar:
However, does anyone have any information on the Saharan dust and the effect it may have on the system.

SAL is no longer a factor. Plenty of moisture in the area and it's creating good lift now on its own.

Kind of a "Big" leap for the NHC to pull the plug on 97L yesterday?

Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
I vote "C - red" because I think it's already closing off a circulation. "B" voters are probably right, though. The NHC likes to move in "one small step" instead of leaps-- like when they need to move a forecast track a lot but do it over two or three advisories.

Quoting Grothar:
I agree 97L is looking much better in the GOES images. Most sites agree about less wind sheer. However, does anyone have any information on the Saharan dust and the effect it may have on the system. It has been very hazy here in S. Fla and through the Caribbean. Welcome back Drak. This is only my second day on this bog, but have always enjoyed your comments.

Thanks! Appreciate it!

ok vote
A it becomes a td at the 8:00pm update
B it becomes a td tomorrow updates
C it becomes a td tuesday
D it dosen't become anything but the invest that it is now
E it becomes ts ana in any of the above dates

Quoting Drakoen:
Brennan is a PhD. I'm still going to go with orange.

Ohh so after looking up some credentials you then decide now... hehe.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok vote
A it becomes a td at the 8:00pm update
B it becomes a td tomorrow updates
C it becomes a td tuesday
D it dosen't become anything but the invest that it is now
E it becomes ts ana in any of the above dates

I vote "E"

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok vote
A it becomes a td at the 8:00pm update
B it becomes a td tomorrow updates
C it becomes a td tuesday
D it dosen't become anything but the invest that it is now
E it becomes ts ana in any of the above dates

B