Two African waves worth mentioning
There are two African tropical waves worth mentioning today, though neither looks particularly threatening. A tropical wave near 12N 45W, about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is now surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert. The dry air has disrupted most of the wave's heavy thunderstorm activity, and will continue to make it difficult for this system to develop over the next 2 - 3 days. Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and should remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range over the next 2 - 3 days. Thereafter, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a modest wind shift associated with 97L. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.
A second tropical wave now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands is under 30 knots of wind shear, and has little prospect of development due to the high shear. However, the wave will bring heavy rain to the islands over the next two days.
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days, and I don't expect either of the two African waves mentioned today to develop over at least the next three days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L, 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.
I'll have an update Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
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The blow is caused by an increase in shear causing an uplift!
Sarcasm lol
The modest 10 knots?
Why do you put 'imo' next to every one of your posts if what you're saying is actually happening? You know what it means right lol? Not bashing you but im just saying feel confident in your posts...
Looks to be going due west
Alright lets give that image a rest lol.
Heres what you were trying to post...pretty old image doesnt do much good.
Lol how did you know
I know everything...
Although the URL that was embedded in the post helped a bit. lol
lol
Not internally...the 850mb vort has decreased. We'll see what it looks like with the new update.
It gives us an indication of how strong it is at the surface if I am not mistaken.
The lower level circulation strength. Although you are right in saying that the convection is the strongest its had.
Decrease is bad. Especially for a weak 'system'.
No an increase is good for it
I thought under 12 knots was considered favorable also. Remember the wording "significant development at this time", which does not equate to it being ripped apart by shear, and it also states the convection has increased. I'm not writing off 97L just yet.
Sarcasm lol.
I was being sarcastic lol :)
Hello
Lol..Good morning 456.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook (4:00 PM HST 18JUL)
==============================================
An area of thunderstorm (91C) is located 600 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii moving west-northwest at 25 mph. Over the past 6 hours this area has shown signs of increased organization. Additional development may be possible over the next two days.
Hey
It's in a nice moist environment
Oh, I figured that. I was agreeing with you that it wasn't being battered. Thanks.
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