Two African waves worth mentioning
There are two African tropical waves worth mentioning today, though neither looks particularly threatening. A tropical wave near 12N 45W, about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is now surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert. The dry air has disrupted most of the wave's heavy thunderstorm activity, and will continue to make it difficult for this system to develop over the next 2 - 3 days. Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and should remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range over the next 2 - 3 days. Thereafter, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a modest wind shift associated with 97L. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.
A second tropical wave now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands is under 30 knots of wind shear, and has little prospect of development due to the high shear. However, the wave will bring heavy rain to the islands over the next two days.
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days, and I don't expect either of the two African waves mentioned today to develop over at least the next three days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L, 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.
I'll have an update Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 — Blog Index
Dolly, Fay, Gustav, Omar and Paloma all formed in the carribean last year.
I'm in the Leewards but they are monitoring the disturbance.
I was thinking that too lol
456 - pressure has started to fall at 41040 as well. Should continue to drop as 97 approaches. It should be an interesting buoy to watch today...A fair clip north of the system, but still should provide some data.
Who knows, maybe GFS will sober up by then.
Actually the name "Chris" has had a history of downfalls as well, I remember Dr.M doing a blog on him in 2006.
but those storms were all in august except for dolly but she formed in the western Caribbean
Lets hope it doesn't rapidly intensify,the islands will welcome the rain,thats for sure.
They're short on time, commercials and all for travel, etc. Only soundbites, like the evening news. LOL. They hardly mention anything any more unless is has been named a TD. I don't watch them anymore, consequently.
yes but only omar could form in the east caribbean. all the others could not get started in the east caribbean. well fay did too be she wasn't particularly strong, she just was moving very slow and landfalled in florida 4 times XD
Morning graphical QuickScat: ABCs & Venezuela W of 66W ENE-E@13-20 with a few squalls to 35k, mainly N of 12N / E of 66W to Trinidad & Grenada E@0-10 with isolated squalls to 30k / just W of Windwards ENE-E@10-17 / W of Leewards ENE@16-22 with scattered squalls to 30k / Virgins & PuertoRico ENE@15-20 / DomRep ENE-E@12-17.
TropicalWAVE near 60W:
--Strong, high-amplitude WAVE near E Caribbean along 17N/59W...12N/63W, moving W-WNW@15. To gauge risk for Tropical LO formation, I look for the following 3 criteria: squalls that are abundant, focused, and persistent at the focal point. This morning, squalls have become more-abundant & focused at 16N/59W. If these squalls persist over the next 12-24 hrs, a Tropical LO could form.
--Typically, such squall activity surges & wanes several times before becoming persistent-enough to generate a self-sustaining Tropical LO. Thus, it is unlikely (but not impossible - I'd estimate a 10% chance) a LO will form before this area moves W of VirginIslands & PuertoRico tomorrow. Wind-shear of 40-50k is decreasing, but should help prevent formation of a Tropical LO.
--NOAA this morning began mentioning a low (less-than-30%) chance of Tropical LOW formation over next 48hrs with this feature.
--Beyond tomorrow, Apex of WAVE should lie somewhere near the GreaterAntilles (Hispanola & Cuba), which, combined with likelihood of persistent wind-shear, should prevent formation of a Tropical LOW.
Link
Your syntax, diction, and grammar is better than a lot here lol.
Omar october Paloma november
dont think it will, its moving a little too fast, has an upper level trough that needs to move, heat potential isn't that high but i could be wrong about that part.
jeez doc...go surf....
Hey Drak,
Lol little sucker just noticed 97 is back up just looking at obs out there and for now i cant fine a surface circulation but convection has somewhat consolidated overnight i'll give it that.Now as far as its future track a deepening trof off low pressure along the southeast coast should induce shear and a northwesterly turn eventually.
PS...Just ran an infrared loop and yes some pretty decent outflow is starting to take shape.
90 f
47% humid
11 miles vis
wind ENE 10 mph
pressure 1015
not much in that...
Grantley Adams, Barbados (Airport)
Updated: 55 min 29 sec ago
87 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 62%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 23 mph from the East
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.99 in
Visibility: 15.0 miles
Clouds: Few 1772 ft
Mostly Cloudy 29528 ft
(Above Ground Level)
hmm, the main blob of convection in the center looks like its expanding. interesting.
The Eastern Caribbean
I know but I meant august or later. anyway the main point is the history of hurricanes from last year do not support the notion of a cyclone developing in the eastern Caribbean in July
The SHF5 model brings this thing to a Cat 1 at 120 hours.
Do you look at both levels, or just one or the other to determine if something will form?
Viewing: 2251 - 2300
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 — Blog Index