The Texas Drought of 2008-2009
Climatologically speaking, Texas has been a land of either feast or famine. The state has a reputation of going long periods time with below-average rainfall, and then suddenly making up the difference in a very short period of time. However, the current "famine" is of a greater magnitude than most, and perhaps any drought previously recorded. The purpose of this blog is to analyze the current Texas Drought, such as how it developed and how severe it actually is, as well as to look and see what the future of the drought holds.
The Texas Drought of 2008-2009 actually began in 2007, following the episode of heavy rain that occurred during the spring and summer and ended the 2005-2006 drought. Following the landfall of Tropical Storm Erin, the last heavy rainfall event of the 2007 floods, a pattern shift occurred that brought dry weather to most of Texas. At the time, Texans were thankful of the pattern sift, which allowed everything to dry out after perhaps the wettest summer since 1957. However, as time went on, the dry pattern continued and the previously abundant water supply began to slowly diminish. The dry pattern continued into 2008, and was especially prevalent in Central Texas, along the Balconies Escarpment. Central Texas also had a particularly hot summer in 2008, which further compounded the drying. As 2008 progressed, much of Texas went from being in no drought at all to having abnormally dry conditions and then returning back to drought. By the end of 2008, most locations in Central Texas recorded their 3rd or 4th driest years of record, and the driest since the great drought of the 1950s. Both Austin and San Antonio ended up receiving less than half of their normal yearly rainfall totals, and several lakes in ended up dropping 20-30 feet throughout the year. Thus far, 2009 has fared no better, and in some cases worse than the previous year. Central Texas has so far endured another very dry year, and is currently on pace to be even drier than 2008. In fact, San Antonio has not seen this dry start of a year since 1925. By now the running rainfall deficit since the start of the current drought has been record setting! In the past 23 months, most of Central Texas has recorded the driest such time period. The heat of 2009 has also been record-setting. Thus far, most of Central and SE TX is on pace to setting their hottest recorded summer. Drought conditions have also expanded beyond Central Texas. Much of South and SE Texas has also recorded large rainfall deficits for 2009 and are now in on the drought conditions. In fact, locations on the coastline from Galveston to Corpus Christi have recorded deficits of 10 to as much as 25 inches below normal thus far in 2009! Most area water supplies are at their lowest since either the 1950s or since their completion. Currently approximately a fifth of the state of Texas is under exceptional drought conditions, which is a larger area than even the SEUS drought of 2007. The current Texas Drought is so severe that hundred year old trees that have survived the drought of the 1950s have begun dying throughout Central and Southern Texas. However, when looking to the future, hope can be seen on the horizon. El Nino has recently developed, and is often a harbinger of a wet Texas fall and winter. In fact, some of the worst floods in Texas history have occurred due to an El Nino pattern setup, such as the floods of October 1994 in SETX, December 1991 across most of Texas, and the Great December 1913 Flood, perhaps the greatest flood that has ever been recored in the state of Texas. However, El Nino does not always bring an end to drought. 2006, an El Nino year, was one of the driest years on record for North and Central Texas. Despite this, forecasters are under the impression that a wet fall and winter could be ahead for Texas, and have even mentioned it in their Seasonal Drought Outlook. But until then, the Great 2008-2009 Drought, one of the worst droughts on record, shall continue to plague Texas.
2008 percent of normal rainfall.
2008 percent of normal rainfall (thus far).
Current Texas Drought Monitor.
Minimum SPI Blend as of September 1st.
US Seasonal Drought Outlook.
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Updated: 2:15 PM GMT op 02 september 2009
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