1900hurricane's WunderBlog

I Like Ike???

Posted by: 1900hurricane, 4:44 AM GMT op 08 september 2008

Ok Houston, this could be the big one! No, seriously this time! Sound familiar? Wasn't it less than 2 weeks ago when Hurricane Gustav threatened the Houston Area? and 3 years prior to that was the entire Hurricane Rita fiasco? What makes this situation any different? To be honest, not much at the moment. However, in the two above-mentioned storms, if the atmosphere had behaved just slightly differently, Houston would have taken a direct hit from a major major hurricane. Well, once again, the same threat is there, and only the names have changed. This time, Hurricane Ike poses the threat to the Houston Area, and at the time, his track is eerily similar to another early September tropical cyclone that traversed the length of Cuba to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, a hurricane that often regaurded as the greatest natural disaster that has ever befallen the United States, a hurricane that made landfall 108 years ago on September the 8th of this year, and the hurricane which my handle is named after: The Great 1900 Galveston Hurricane. There is also one other difference between Ike and the formentioned hurricanes Gustav and Rita. At the moment, model guidence is extremely tight for 5 days out, much tighter than it was for the two recent near misses, and the model guidence is centered near Galveston Bay. As I mentioned above, there is still lots of time to watch Ike and there is still lots of time for conditions to change, but until we are safely out of the cone (if that happens), hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Most recent forcast track from the National Hurricane Center.

AVN IR image of Ike. More images and loops of Ike can be found here and here.

Early-Cycle Track Guidence Models. These models are generally reguarded as being less accurate than the Late-Cycle Track Guidence Models, but often run on more recent data. Note the tight clustering of the models approaching Galveston Bay.

Late-Cycle Track Guidence Models. Generally reguarded as being the most reliable models out there, but are often based on data as much as 6 hours old by the time the model runs are complete.

Other Useful Links:

National Hurricane Center
MIMIC
Weather Resarch and Forcasting Model
Florida State University Model Guidence
NRL Imagry
ECMWF Model Guidence
NOAA Model Guidence
Colorado State University Model Guidence
National Weathe Service

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About 1900hurricane

Texas A&M meteorology major; hardcore weather enthusiast. Class of 2013 (+ a victory lap or two). My raw passion for extreme weather is hard to match.m@

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