Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
357 PM EDT sun may 19 2013
Short term (tonight-tuesday)...
weak middle/upper level shortwave over the Middle-Atlantic States with
troughiness down along the southeast U.S. Coast this afternoon
will continue to drift east through the period with the models now
indicating that a piece of it moving south into North Florida
during Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile in the low levels...high
pressure will continue to ridge southwest across Florida from out
in the Atlantic Ocean with a rather weak pressure gradient across
the area.
For the rest of this afternoon into tonight the sea breezes will
continue to move inland and with enough moisture we should see
scattered showers and storms pop up over inland areas. Some drier
air has setup over the Tampa Bay region north into portions of
the Nature Coast and this appears to be limiting even the cloud
development. For now have left chance probability of precipitation for this evening over
the interior and southern counties and 20 probability of precipitation over the remainder
of the inland portions of the coastal counties. Low temperatures
tonight will range from the middle 60s to lower 70s.
For Monday through Tuesday enough moisture will be across the
area...precipitable water between 1.5 and 1.7 inches...when
combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes to allow
scattered convection to develop during mainly the afternoon and
evening hours. Best coverage will be over inland areas
Monday...but on Tuesday with the upper level low in the vicinity
and the synoptic east to southeast flow a little bit stronger we
should see scattered convection all the way to the coast. Daytime
highs each day will be in the middle 80s to around 90 with lows
Monday night in the middle 60s to lower 70s.
Long term (tuesday night-sunday)...
surface high pressure will be in place across the area through
Wednesday with the ridge axis north of the region...as a weak
trough remains in place aloft. Generally east/southeast winds will be in
place with a sea breeze developing Wednesday afternoon. Ample
moisture will allow for scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms
to develop each day along sea breeze and outflow boundaries with
the best chances inland. Have kept rain chances at 30 percent
coastal-50 percent inland with the convection. Temperatures will
be in the middle 60s-lower 70s Wednesday morning and in the middle 80s
coastal to lower 90s inland Wednesday afternoon.
For Wednesday night and Thursday...an area of weak low pressure
will move over the region shifting winds to the west through the
day and pulling in a little drier air behind it. Rain chances will
be 30-40 percent for Thursday afternoon and mainly inland. Lows
will again be in the middle 60s to lower 70s...with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.
For Thursday night through Saturday...high pressure will build over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico keeping generally west/northwest flow in place
across the area. Rain chances will be 20-30 percent with the best
chances inland. Lows continue in the middle 60s to lower 70s...with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
&&
Aviation...
pocket of dry air/lower dew points will delay/preclude
thunderstorm development around Tampa Bay and even toward lal.
Best chance for afternoon and evening storms will be around
pgd...fmy and rsw. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected for the next
24 hours.
&&
Marine...
the rather light east to southeast winds with an afternoon sea
breeze near the coast will persist into midweek with winds
remaining less than 15 knots and seas 3 feet or less.
&&
Fire weather...
no fire weather concerns over the next few days as plenty of low
level moisture will be in place across the region keeping relative
humidity values above critical levels.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 72 87 71 87 / 10 40 20 50
fmy 71 90 70 90 / 20 50 30 50
gif 70 88 69 88 / 20 50 30 50
srq 69 87 69 87 / 10 30 20 50
bkv 66 87 66 87 / 10 40 20 50
spg 74 85 73 85 / 10 30 20 50
&&
Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.
&&
$$
Short term/marine/fire weather...69/close
long term...24/Colson
aviation...63/jillson
