Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
556 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Discussion...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
Aviation...
Convection will be possible at all terminals except kmaf for the
next few hours as the outflow boundary from storms to the NE
collides west/convection coming off the mountains west. However...VFR
conditions should prevail outside of direct...heavier convection.
Otherwise...a 40+kt low level jet will maintain return flow overnight.
Another fairly widespread cumulus field will be possible
Thursday...W/bases 7-9 kft above ground level.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 301 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013/
Discussion...
the subtropical upper ridge that has been centered over Mexico the
past several days has been edging northward toward West Texas
today while an upper low digs into the Pacific northwest. At the
surface...strong southerly flow persists as Lee troughing enhances
to the north. Skies have been mostly clear through the morning and
middle afternoon temperatures have warmed to low 90s. Several showers
and thunderstorms are in the process of developing over the Davis
and Guadalupe Mountain regions this afternoon and are expected to
migrate out into the plains of southeast New Mexico and portions
of West Texas through this evening. Meanwhile...an early morning
mesoscale convective system that moved through the Texas Panhandle has sent an outflow
boundary southwest toward the Permian Basin...as noted on radar.
This boundary will likely generate some severe thunderstorm
activity across the northern Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for these
areas. The main threats will be large hail...damaging winds and
heavy rainfall. Will make note of this in the severe weather potential statement. Any convection
moving off the mountains of southeast New Mexico will have the
potential to interact with this boundary and could result in an
isolated short- lived tornado.
The upper ridge will shift slightly eastward Thursday and Friday but
maintain its influence over most of the region. Surface Lee
troughing will extend southward into eastern New Mexico and West
Texas...keep strong southerly flow and ample moisture in place
through the weekend. Surface heating near the trough axis may help
to generate some afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the
higher terrain regions as well as the southeast New Mexico plains
through Sunday. Confidence is currently low however if we can get a
weakness in the western periphery of the upper ridge during peak
heating...coincident with a middle level Theta-E axis...then its
definitely possible for the above mentioned locations.
Otherwise...rain chances will remain none for most locations through
the forecast period. High temperatures will remain in the middle to
upper 90s with higher readings in the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys.
Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&
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