Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1147 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Aviation...
a low stratus deck will develop overnight across eastern portions
of the region...lowering ceilings to MVFR at kaus/ksat/kssf by
08-09z. Kdrt is expected to remain VFR through the taf period.
Ceilings will begin to lift/break-out during the middle-morning hours
with VFR conditions prevailing through the afternoon and evening.
Southeast-southerly surface winds of 10 to 15 kts will persist through the next few
hours before decreasing to at or below 10 kts overnight. Moderate southeast-southerly
surface winds will persist during the daytime hours Thursday.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 921 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013/
Update...
convective complex in north central Texas was dissipating. Isolated
showers near Lexington were also dissipating. Ongoing forecast has
convection ending at 10 PM...so no major changes will be needed.
Previous discussion... /issued 629 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013/
Aviation...
a complex of showers and thunderstorms across central Texas is
slowly drifting southeastward this evening. However...no additional
development has been noted along the southern edge of the system
and therefore do not anticipate impacts at kaus. Isolated convection
is possible ahead of the system...but likelihood and areal coverage
are too low to warrant explicit mention in the tafs. Otherwise...moderate
southeast to southerly surface winds this evening will decrease to at or below
10kts overnight. MVFR stratus is expected to develop across eastern
portions of the region overnight...impacting kaus/ksat/kssf by
08-09z. Ceilings will scatter-out during the middle to late morning hours
Thursday.
Previous discussion... /issued 334 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013/
Short term (tonight through Thursday night)...
a cluster of strong storms over west central and north central Texas is
moving southeast at about 30 miles per hour toward our northeastern counties. While
the coarser model data does little with this complex...some of the
finer resolution data shows the complex moving at least into at
least the aus metropolitan area before dissipating. Given the forward
speed...afternoon temperatures in the middle 90s and a low level moisture
axis roughly along I-35...will include slight chance probability of precipitation and a
mention of gusty winds in the severe weather potential statement for this evening. Will also have
a slight chance for southeast counties where some cumulus streets appear
capable of producing similar activity to that seen Tuesday
afternoon. 500 mb level subsidence pattern should hold for the rest of
the area. Middle-level ridge axis becomes further entrenched over
central Texas for Thursday to shut down rain chances and keep the
warming trend on track. The next couple nights will have steady
southeast breezes to continue promoting low clouds around daybreak with
the help of above normal soil and vegetation moisture for this
time of year.
Long term (friday through wednesday)...
model consensus keeps the ridge axis generally over central Texas
through early next week. Expect a slow drying trend...with morning
low clouds becoming gradually more sparse by early next week. Some
slightly deeper onshore flow could promote some sea-breeze
convection by early next week...but the ridge presence aloft
should prevent much activity from getting very far into the
interior counties. Will keep the day-to-day warming trend slow for
now...but eventually the developing low level arid conditions
could push more temperatures toward the century mark next week.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 75 96 75 97 73 / 10 0 0 - -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 73 95 73 96 72 / 10 0 - - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 95 73 95 72 / 10 0 - - -
Burnet Muni Airport 73 94 72 94 71 / 10 0 0 0 -
del Rio International Airport 76 96 75 97 75 / - - - - -
Georgetown Muni Airport 73 96 73 96 72 / 10 0 0 - -
Hondo Muni Airport 73 95 73 96 73 / - 0 0 0 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 73 95 73 96 72 / 10 0 - - -
La Grange - Fayette regional 76 96 76 96 75 / 10 - - - -
San Antonio International Airport 75 95 75 95 74 / 10 0 0 - -
Stinson Muni Airport 73 95 73 95 73 / 10 0 0 - -
&&
Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/aviation...25
synoptic/grids...01
public service/data collection...12
