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Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
253 am akdt Tuesday Mar 31 2015

Discussion...
00z synoptic models initialized well and verified well against
the 06z analysis. The models continue to perform reasonably as
far as feature position and strength however 06z and 09z
temperature verification over the interior continues to perform
poorly. Run to run continuity as well spread between model
families remain reasonable through Friday....however by the
weekend significant model spread erupts and relative measures of
predictability plummet leading to low confidence in the long
range guidance. Relied heavily again on inherited forecast for
temperatures and a blend of European model (ecmwf) and NAM for precipitation fields.

Aloft at 500 hpa...a 514 dam low over western Kotzebue Sound
lifts northwest in to the southern Chukchi Sea Wednesday. A 515
dam low over the central Aleutians will move rapidly east to be
located 200 nm south of Dutch Harbor Wednesday morning and in the
central Gulf of Alaska Thursday morning. The low continues to move
to the east into the eastern Gulf of Alaska Friday morning. An
upper level ridge builds rapidly north into the eastern Bering
Sea and western Alaska Wednesday and Thursday and will be centered
along a St Lawrence Island to Cold Bay axis Friday morning as the
upper level trough slips east to be located over a Barrow to Sitka
axis by Friday morning.

On the surface...a 1003 mb low currently over western Kotzebue
Sound will push northwest and weaken to 1008 mb as it moves into
the southern Chukchi Sea. Trailing front over the western Brooks
range extending south merges with the Arctic front that extends
south over the western interior and West Coast. This area will be
the Focal Point for snow showers today north of the Seward
Peninsula and rain and snow showers south of the Seward Peninsula.
A weak front moving northwest around a weak low moving into the
northeast Gulf of Alaska Tuesday night and Wednesday will bring
mostly cloudy skies south and east of Fairbanks and mostly cloudy
skies with scattered snow showers or flurries north and west of
Fairbanks Tuesday night and Wednesday.

1037 mb high pressure approximately 400 nm north of Demarcation
Point combined with complex set of low pressure troughs over the
interior creating strong gradient over the North Slope coast.
Ongoing Blizzard Warning over eastern Beaufort Sea coast allowed
to continue as winds briefly diminish early this morning but are
expected to increase again later this morning and afternoon with
blizzard conditions expected to develop again by late morning.
Winter weather advisories for central Beaufort Sea coast and
northern coast for blowing snow allowed to continue through this
evening with winds again expected to pick up by late morning and
continue trough this afternoon.



&&

Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
Blizzard Warning for akz204.

Winter Weather Advisory for akz202-akz203.

Gale Warning for pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz230.
&&

$$

Ccc Mar 15

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