Uitleg wetenschappelijke weersvoorspelling
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
245 PM akst Friday Mar 7 2014
aloft...trough from Barrow to Barter Island will move to Fort
Yukon to Bettles to Wainwright 3pm Sat and to Fort Yukon to
Fairbanks to Nome 9am Sunday with a broad low over the north
central interior. The low will move to the western North Slope
through Monday as a ridge of high pressure builds over Southeast
Alaska...bringing a pattern change for northern Alaska throughout
the work week starting with southerly flow beginning across the
Alaska Range. Low over the russian Arctic moving south to the
northern chukchi peninsula Sunday.
Surface...strong high over northern Siberia persisting but slowly
weakening through Monday while the ridge extending across the
North Slope also weakens. A cold front from Barrow to Barter
Island will move south to Fort Yukon to Bettles to Point Lay 3am
Saturday and to Northway to Denali to Nome 3am Sunday. Occlusion
over the northern Gulf of Alaska Saturday will move northeast
across the far eastern Alaska Range and into Canada Sunday.
Models...the NAM...GFS...and European model (ecmwf) do have differences in how the
low aloft which forms over the north central interior moves
northwest at the end of the weekend. And the European model (ecmwf) is a bit
quicker to bring south flow to the Alaska Range Monday versus the
U.S. Models which do so Monday evening. In the medium term there is
general agreement between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) on the south flow
persisting over northern Alaska...though on Friday the European model (ecmwf)
indicates the ridge tilting west to make the flow more southeast
across the area.
North Slope...flurries moving south over the area tonight and
continuing into sun. Winds remaining generally light...dropping
below 15 miles per hour overnight. Temperatures cooling overall at middle levels but
where clouds persist surface temperatures may not cool as much.
Western Alaska...local windiness will continue through the
weekend. Weak short wave troughs behind the main trough aloft
mentioned above will spread some clouds south over the Chukchi Sea
coast and lower Noatak and Kobuk valleys Sunday into Monday.
Temperatures cooling on Sunday and Monday.
Central and eastern interior...the occlusion moving over the far
southeast interior will possibly provide light snow from Tanacross
south late Saturday night through Sunday night. Otherwise clear
skies and temperatures cooling off through sun with lows in the 20s below
across southern interior valleys and in the 30s below for the
upper Yukon valley. 850 mb temperatures drop to -25c over the upper yukonvalley
on Sunday am...and around -22c at Fairbanks. South flow aloft
developing over southern interior Monday with rising temperatures
and gusty winds commencing through Alaska Range passes.
brisk Wind Advisory for pkz200-pkz210-pkz220-pkz225.
Jl Mar 14