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Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
359 PM akdt sun Oct 4 2015

satellite pics suggest that the ridge aloft is presently building
along about 160w as the models would have. The models also are in
good agreement about moving it east while tilting it counter
clockwise to extend from about Wainwright to Northway Tuesday
afternoon...after which it becomes nearly stationary for a couple
of days. They also use the building ridge to sweep nearly all of
the precipitation out of the central and eastern interior by

The proximate causes for building this ridge are two short waves
over the Bering Sea. One of these lies from the Bering Strait
south to near Saint Lawrence Island. It will move northeast to
lie from Cape Lisburne to Kotzebue to Buckland at 4am Monday...and
be diffuse southwest over the Seward Peninsula. The portion of
the front from Kotzebue northwest will continue northeast...shearing
out over the Arctic slope Monday afternoon. The remainder of the
front will move back northwest as a warm front later Monday. The
second short wave is represented by a 996 mb low over the Bering
Sea north of Shemya. This low will move east tonight then northeast
on Monday to be near Saint Matthew Island at 4 PM Monday with a
weather front extending southeast from the low then south to near
Cold Bay. The low will drift north toward Saint Lawrence Island
Monday night then become nearly stationary. The low aloft
associated with this feature is expected to draw support from the
main low aloft over eastern Russia...and will itself become the
main low aloft on Tuesday. The front will move more rapidly north
and east over the West Coast and western interior Monday night and
Tuesday...but will have little impact on the central and eastern
interior due to the building ridge.

High pressure over the northern Chukchi Sea will continue building
into the Beaufort Sea. The two weather fronts discussed above will
both stall out over the Arctic slope...but will increase the
pressure gradient over our Arctic coast.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none


Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
dense fog advisory for akz222.

Small Craft Advisory for pkz210-pkz215-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230.


Djh Oct 15

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