Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
633 am CDT sun may 19 2013
Update...
see updated aviation discussion below.
&&
Previous discussion...
short term...today through Tuesday
one word can describe the short term portion of the
forecast...wet.
An upper level low pressure system will stall across the region
with periods of shower and thunderstorms expected today through
Tuesday. The combination of extensive cloud cover plus an
abundance of llm...high temperatures will be on the cool side of
normal. However with the cloud cover...low temperatures will be
above normal through the period.
Based on the nam12...there should be a brief period of time with
no precipitation occurring across a better portion of the County Warning Area. By
21z...the surface low should be near kpir...with southerly flow
keeping dew points in the lower 60s along the I-29 corridor. The
llm in combination with short wave energy tracking south of the
region should produce another round of overnight showers and
thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could become severe after 0z with
damaging winds being the main threat. 0-6km bulk shear values are
rather unimpressive until after 0z.
Long term...Tuesday night through Sunday
A slow moving upper low will continue to spread rain over the
region Tuesday night and Wednesday before exiting to the east Wednesday
night. Upper ridging will then build in over the plains for the
remainder of the week. With the Gulf wide open models are pinging
on sufficient low level moisture to fire off some convection
Friday and Saturday below the ridge. With only limited shortwave
activity at this time there is little to suggest any significant
lifting mechanism until a low begins to move off The Rockies on
Sunday. However there will be a low level jet in place. Stuck with allblend
probability of precipitation for now since it is the end of the extended. However will
likely need to fine tune timing as the weekend nears.
&&
Aviation...
12z tafs for the kabr...Katy...kpir and kmbg terminals
An area of low pressure will remain fairly stationary over the
northern plains through Tuesday. This will mean continued chances
of rain at the taf sites. This morning low stratus will create
IFR/MVFR conditions at all sites. There may be a brief break in
MVFR ceilings late this afternoon...before falling again overnight. Stronger
shear will develop tonight helping set the stage for more
thunderstorms near kabr/Katy by 06z.
&&
Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&
$$
Update...wise
short term...South Dakota
long term...wise
aviation...wise
Weather.Gov/Aberdeen
